Transcript Power Point Presentation - National Statistical Service

Putting the Evidence into
Evidence Based Policy
Maximising the Value of
Statistics
Peter Harper
Deputy Australian Statistician
Australian Bureau of Statistics
National Statistical Service Seminar
19 August 2011
Outline
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Statistics and evidence-based policy
Statistical literacy
Statistical quality
What makes a good indicator
The misuse of statistics
The ABS and how we work with policy
makers
• The National Statistical Service
Statistics and evidence-based
policy
• Evidence-based policy is policy informed by
rigorously established objective evidence
• Evidence-based policy reduces idiosyncratic
decisions and leads to better outcomes
• Statistics are at the heart of evidence-based
policy, but they must also be well used
Statistics and the policy cycle
Issues and ideas
Government
and
non-government
information
sources
Monitoring and
evaluation
Development of
policy options
and decision
Statistical quality
• A statistic is of high quality if it is fit for
the purpose for which it is being used
– therefore, the purpose determines the
quality required, the same statistic can be
high quality for one use, and low quality for
another
• Statistical quality has a range of
dimensions, which must be understood
to determine whether or not a statistics
is fit for purpose
Statistical literacy
• Data awareness
• Understanding of statistical
concepts
• Ability to analyse, interpret and
evaluate statistical information
• Ability to communicate statistical
information and understanding
Dimensions of statistical quality
What makes a good
indicator?
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Relevant/reflective of issue
Available as a time series
Meaningful and sensitive to change
Summary in nature
Able to be disaggregated
Easily interpreted
Able to be related to other
indicators
The misuse of statistics
“Torture numbers, and
they’ll confess to
anything”
• The misuse of statistics can be
extremely damaging
• Statistics can be misused deliberately or
inadvertently
– Statistics can be presented to deceive
– Statistics can be chosen for support, rather
than illumination
– Ignorance can cause misuse
Misuse arising from error in
statistical methods
• Discarding unfavourable data
• Biased samples
– Non-random samples
– Self selection
– Non-response bias
• Error in reporting
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Leading questions
Deliberate lying
Guessing
Aiming to give a favourable impression
Misuse arising from error in
presentation
• Misleading averages
– Mean, median and mode
– Hidden distributions
“Then there is the man who drowned
crossing a stream with an average depth of
six inches”
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Meaningless percentages
Overgeneralisation
False precision
Data dredging/selective presentation
Inappropriate comparisons
Misleading charts
Tons of rubbish per person per day
200
100
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Green City
Garbageville
250
200
150
100
50
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
220
215
210
205
200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Shape
Colour
Everything BUT colour
Misuse arising from
inappropriate analysis
• Drawing conclusions from
inconclusive results
– Sample error
– “Signal to noise” ratio
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Misunderstanding indexes
Missing the context
Extrapolating the trend
False causality
Preventing misuse
• Be informed, talk with the experts
• Watch out for advocacy and
agendas
• Probe behind the numbers
• Look into what might be missing
“Do not put your faith in what statistics
say until you have carefully considered
what they do not say”
• Does it make sense?
The Australian Bureau of
Statistics
• Australia’s national statistical agency
– Provides statistical services for the
Commonwealth Government, the State and
territory governments and the Australian
people
• Established in 1905
• Independence and integrity underpinned
by legislation
– ABS Act, Census and Statistics Act
• Over 3000 staff in nine office across
Australia
– Headquarters in Belconnen, ACT
• A world leader
ABS Mission
We assist and encourage informed
decision-making, research and
discussion within governments and
the community, by leading a high
quality, objective and responsive
national statistical service.
ABS Values
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Integrity
Relevance
Service
Access for All
Professionalism
Trust of Providers
How the ABS can assist
policy makers
• Provide statistical information and analysis
• Provide advice on how information
requirements could be met
– Early engagement is essential
• Provide advice on the use of statistics
• Provide advice on the development of
administrative data
• Transform administrative data
• Produce synthetic and/or modelled
statistical output
• Conduct statistical collections
• Provide methodological and other
statistical support
The National Statistical Service
• A community of government
agencies, led by the ABS, building
a richer statistical picture for a
better informed Australia
– an agreed set of statistical
frameworks, principles, policies and
resources
– underpinned by a shared set of values
and associated behaviours.
NSS Objectives
• Deliver a high quality, up-to-date,
comprehensive, coherent statistical picture of
the economy, society and the environment to
assist
• Encourage informed decision making,
research and discussion within governments
and the wider community
• Provide a world class official statistical service
that retains the confidence and trust of the
Australian society as both providers to, and
users of, the resultant official statistics
• Maximise the use for official statistical
purposes of data available within government
administrative systems
NSS Objectives (continued)
• Minimise the burden of statistical reporting at
all levels of the Australian community
• Document and retain as an enduring national
resource key statistical outputs and their
underlying data sources.
The value of the NSS
• Provide trusted statistics that answer
important questions
– A better life through better decisions
• Enable Australians to assess the
performance of their governments and
hold them accountable for outcomes
• Provide a foundation for evidence-based
policy and, through feedback, drive
innovation in service delivery
The value of the NSS (continued)
• For producers of statistics, a more cost
effective approach in line with best
practice to meet their own information
needs and the needs of others, and
provide them with access to statistical
information from others
• Enable Australia to realise the full
potential of its investment in statistical
resources by overcoming institutional
and jurisdictional fragmentation
NSS Foundations
• Values - governments and the community
value and support high integrity
information
• Capability - producers and users are able
to manage data, make it accessible, and
use it well
• Content - public information sources are
fully used to provide a statistical picture of
the economy, society and the environment
• Statistical infrastructure - infrastructure
such as statistical standards, policies and
tools are shared to maximise the value of
investment and support integrated
statistics
The ABS is leading a
national statistical service.
An informed Australia
and a better place
for our citizens.
www.abs.gov.au
www.nss.gov.au