Transcript Public Opinion and Policy Making2

Tuesday October 22, 2013
• OBJ: SWBAT understand
the influence that public
opinion has on policies by
examining different
examples.
• Drill: What is this a
caricature of? What does
this say about the
relationship between the
public, polls and
government?
• Homework: Study for Unit
II Test
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Copyright © 2013 Cengage
• WHO GOVERNS?
1. How does public opinion in America today vary
by race, gender, and other differences?
2. What is political ideology, and how does it
affect political behavior and influence public
policy?
• TO WHAT ENDS?
1. What role did the Framers of the Constitution
think public opinion should play in American
democracy?
2. When, if ever, should public policies mirror
majority opinion?
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Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Why Does Government Policy Often Appear At
Odds With Public Opinion?
•The Framers of the Constitution did not try
to create a government that would do from
day to day “what the people want.”
•They created a government for the purpose
of achieving certain substantive goals.
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Public Opinion and Democracy
The Framers of the Constitution created a government
to achieve certain goals:
“to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure
domestic Tranquility, provide for the common
defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure
the Blessing of Liberty.”
– Preamble to the Constitution
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Characteristics of Policy-Making
• Economic Policy:
• a government policy for maintaining economic growth and tax
revenues
• Fiscal Policy:
• a government policy for dealing with the budget (especially
with taxation and borrowing)
• Monetary Policy:
• Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary
authority of a country controls the supply of money, often
targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting
economic growth and stability. The official goals usually
include relatively stable prices and low unemployment
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Why is Public Opinion Important?
Democratic governments rest on the consent of the
governed.
-- Hence, major shifts in public opinion should
trigger a shift in public policy
-- But public opinion is often unstable, weak, ill
informed or nonexistent
-- So public officials have flexibility in dealing
with public issues
This attention to public opinion has created an industry
in public opinion polling and survey research.
Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls?
Many organizations regularly sponsor independent
national surveys.
-- CBS, ABC, NBC, FOX, Gallup, Washington
Post, Time, Newsweek
Political candidates also contract with private
marketing and opinion research firms to conduct
surveys in conjunction with their campaigns.
The Impact of Issues
Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls?
A “good” poll depends upon the selection of a random
sample of persons chosen in such a way which
insures that every person in the universe of people
has an equal chance of being selected for interviewing.
National samples usually begin with 1,000 or more
randomly selected persons
-- the larger the sample, the more accurate the
results
-- the larger the sample, the more costly it
becomes
Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls?
The accuracy of the results primarily depends on the
randomness and size of the sample as well as the
wording of the questions.
Leading questions are often used by unprofessional
pollsters to produce a result favorable to their side.
Survey researchers can estimate the sampling error
through the mathematics of probability.
-- the sampling error is usually expressed as a
percentage range—for example, plus or minus
3 percent
Survey Research: Framing the Question
Do you believe that waterboarding is torture and that the U.S. has
a moral responsibility to not engage in or condone any form of
torture?
-- the question is confusing as there are two issues that are
presented: is waterboarding torture and whether the U.S.
should engage in it
Do you believe that abortion should be legal?
-- the question is oversimplified as many people believe that
abortion should be legal under certain circumstances
Should the Obama administration step back from the rush to
create “cap and trade” energy legislation that will cost jobs, harm
future economic growth, and impose an estimated $1,761 new
energy tax on American families?
-- the question is biased
Characteristics of Policy-making
• Foreign Policy:
• a government's strategy in dealing with other
nations.
• Social Welfare Policy:
• The study of social services and the welfare state. It focuses
on the idea of social welfare and its relationship to politics
and society. Specifically, it also considers detailed issues in the
society and encourages the study and teaching of social
welfare policy, policy practice within social work education
and its importance.
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How Does Public Opinion Affect
Policy?
• Get into groups of five.
– Count off in fives.
– Meet up with your number groups.
– Read your article together
– Summarize it, and explain how, if at all public
opinion determines public policy.
– Get back in your original groups and share your
findings.
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Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Public Opinion
• Public opinion is important in US
– Opinions about a given government policy can
change over time, often dramatically
– Public opinion places boundaries on allowable
types of public policies
– Citizens often provide opinions on which they
have no expertise
– Governments tend to respond to public opinion
– The government sometimes does not do what
people want
Public Opinion and
Models of Democracy
• Opinion polling dates from the 1930s
• Not a powerful research tool until computers
invented in 1950s
• Founders built public opinion into structure of
government by allowing direct election of
representatives to the House and
apportioning representation there by
population
Sampling a Few,
Predicting to Everyone
• Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample
of a population selected by chance is
representative of that population
• Three factors affect accuracy of sample:
– Must be chosen randomly
– Larger samples more accurate
– Greater variation in population means greater
chance for differences in ability to predict
Accurate Polling
• Most national opinion polling organizations
poll 1,500 individuals
– Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the
time
– Even this small margin of error can mean
incorrect predictions in close elections
• Polls can be wrong because of biased
question wording or superficial responses
• Look at current polls:
http://www.pollingreport.com
Public Opinion and Democracy
• Majoritarian model of democracy holds
government should do what a majority of
the people want
– Around 70% of Americans think majority
opinion should have a great deal of influence
on politicians
• Pluralist model of democracy believes
democracy requires free expression of
opinions by minority groups
– Public as a whole rarely demonstrates clear,
consistent opinions
Do We Really Know What The Public
Thinks?
•It is not easy to know what the public
thinks.
•A few simple, clear-cut and widely
discussed issues may allow for some
degree of certainty.
•But, with many lesser-known issues that
certainty may be missing.
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Cleavages in Public Opinion
• Social Class
• Race and Ethnicity
• Region
Joe Raedle/Getty Images News/Getty Images
Marco Rubio, the Hispanic son of
exiles from Cuba, is a conservative
Republican elected from Florida to
the United States Senate in 2010.
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Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public
Policy
• Political elites – persons with a
disproportionate share of political power.
• Elites raise and frame political issues.
• Elites state the norms by which issues should
be settled.
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Wrap Up
• In what ways can public opinion shape public
opinion?
• Do you think they really have a voice?
• Which form of policy does the public have the
most influence on, why do you think so?
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WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
MEMORANDUM
To: Bill Byron, U.S. Senator
From: Dan Joyce, legislative assistant
Subject: Vote on path to citizenship bill
Your state has only a small illegal immigration problem, but voters have concerns both
about maintaining law and order, and providing economic opportunities and a
“path to citizenship” for people who have resided in this country for many years.
As you contemplate both your vote on the bill and your possible presidential bid as
a Republican, note that public opinion on the subject is divided by party, race,
ethnicity and religion. For example, an August 2010 Pew poll asked about
priorities in dealing with illegal immigration: 47% of Republicans, 34% of
Independents, and 21% of Democrats cited “better border security;” 41% of
Hispanics, versus 19% of White evangelicals cited “creating a path to citizenship”
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WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Arguments for:
1. Your state contains a small but slowly growing proportion of firstgeneration Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants
who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their legal status.
2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else wants, and
contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes and buying goods and
services.
3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for being in the
country illegally, is the most realistic option for individuals who have
family and other long-term ties in the United States.
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WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Arguments against:
1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration reform, saying that
enhanced border security must be a higher priority.
2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans and cost
more in public services, such as education and emergency health care,
than they contribute to the economy.
3. People who entered the country illegally must not be rewarded for
breaking the law, and enforcement can be effective with sufficient
resources.
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WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Your decision:
Vote for bill?
Vote against bill?
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