Transcript PowerPoint
ATIE 2013 New Delhi
Cloud Impact in Japan
~ Government, Carriers and Vendors ~
May 6 th , 2013
Harry Takeichi
1
Can Japan end ‘Lost Decades’?
ABENOMICS is making psychological upturn J-Yen/1USD Rate
79 99
(Nov.13, 12) (Apr.24, 13) NIKKEI Stock Average 8,661 13,766 (Nov.13, 12) (Apr.23, 13) LT Interest Rate 0.73% 0.32% (Nov.13, 12) (Apr.5, 13)
Fiscal: Big Gov’t Investment in infrastructure ( 2 Trillion USD for Resilient-Japan Project)
Monetary: BOJ targets 2% inflation by 2years BOJ supplies double money to market
Growth: PM leads growth measures & deregulation TPP, EPAs (EU, RCEP, China/Korea) 2
Economic Growth Scenario
Unprecedented Experiment
Kuroda, the Governor of BOJ explains 2% (inflation) in 2years, 2 times of money supply .
TPP, Japan-EU EPA Japan/PRC/Korea RCEP (ASEAN+6), TISA
Government makes big public Investment to social Infrastructure
Government Task Forces for Growth Ends Deflation? - Drastic De-regulation?
- Lower Corporate Tax?
Promote ICT Solutions for issues i.e. Energy, Aging, Food and Environment
Spending & Investment maybe stimulated….
but Will competitive products & services emerge?? ICT Deployment to Social Infrastructure 3
Mikitani-Paper
~ New Japan KPI Proposal ~
Mr. Mikitani, president of Rakuten, proposes new national KPIs for new business innovation by IT at the Council for Industrial Competitiveness
Repeal ‘Face to Face’, ‘Written Document’ Rules New KPI WEF ‘ICT Regulation Ranking’ Present
Target 42
10 or upper
Internet/ICT ‘Autobahn’ Policy - Speed (Fixed/Mobile) - Autobahn=no speed limit/no fees
Encourage Engineers & Ventures in Number / Quality / Tax Cloud Service Expansion -Number of IT engineers - Foreign IT Experts entry with working visa/year - Start-ups ratio - Cloud Service % to Government IT spending - Government Service Cost /GDP LTE 7.1M/s
World Fastest Almost Free (or Nationalized ) 0.9mil
2mil 2,852
20,000 3.2%
10% 25% by 2018 23.1%
20% or less 4
Mikitani-Paper
~ New Japan KPI Proposal ~ Government Service Cost /GDP
20.3% 21.2% 25.3%
Mr. Mikitani, president of Rakuten, proposes new national KPIs for new business innovation by IT at the Council for Industrial
Designate 25%($20Bil) of Start-ups % (2008) government services to shift to cloud in 2011 11.1% Present
Target By 2015, 50% of Central Government’s new IT spending must be shifted New KPI WEF to cloud 42
11.5% - Speed (Fixed/Mobile) - Autobahn=no speed limit/no fees LTE 7.1M/s
World Fastest Almost Free (or Nationalized) Encourage Engineers & Ventures in Number / Quality / Tax -Number of IT engineers - Foreign IT Experts entry with working visa/year - Start-ups ratio 0.9mil
2mil 2,852
20,000 3.2%
10%
Cloud Service Expansion - Cloud Service % to Government IT spending - Government Service Cost /GDP 25% by 2018 23.1%
20% or less 5
Telecom Operators make Good Profits, Electronics Makers make Huge Losses
US$ Billion
20 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15)
Profits of listed companies for Apr-Sep, 2011 vs 2012 (not including Power and Monetary industry)
(Source: Nikkei) 2011 2Q 2012 2Q Manufacturing non-manufacturing
Who is your rival?
~ Interviews with Carrier Tops ~ ‘Verizon Communications’ as a cloud servicer ‘Silicon Valley’ as a innovative group of synergy ‘Customers’
as a fast-changing marketing target
7
Verizon Show at CES 2013 ~No Phones There~
Running shoes that Uploads runners data without smartphone Plug-in On Board Diagnosis (OBD) module that gathers various car data so that rental-car company monitors for efficient maintenance Trash can in Allentown, PA, advises city sanitation department of the suitable timing to be emptied so that garbage truck routes can be optimized Heads-up PC that makes a worker`s both hands free Foot ball helmet that uploads detailed data of shock for players so that a team can monitors their health
8
NTT DoCoMo keynote at MWC 2013
~ $11B revenue from New Business in 2015~ Mr. Kaoru Kato (President, 2012- ) 9
Why carriers move toward Cloud
1. Network Concept has changed. Services are provided by Data Centers (not by network nodes) DC DC IAAS PAAS SAAS DC 2. Major OTT players own & operate dedicated DCs and backbone network, that push telecom carriers down to access conduit and deprive their revenues. DC Cache Server for popular video contents ISP IX ISP ISP IX Telecom Carrier Job Scope Peering with ISPs DC DC Global WAN to connect own DCs 10
NTT Invests to transform themselves to a CLOUD Player
‘Driving for Service Creation Group’
Focuses on Solution Services Creation
Expands Overseas Business (US$10B revenue by 2012)
Acquired Mr. Satoshi Miura (President, 2007-2012) ‘Be A Valued Partner of Inter-service’
Focuses ‘ Global Cloud Services ’ as its core business
Supports Business Model Innovation and Quality Life Style Further expands Overseas business (US$20B revenue by 2017) Acquired Mr. Hiroo Unoura (President, 2012- ) 11
Acquisitions to be a Cloud Player
Ms. Meg Whitman (President & CEO) US$2.5Billion by Century Link (2011) Mr. Glen F. Post (CEO) US$1.6Billion by HP (2007) US$13.9Billion by HP (2008) Mr. Lowell McAdam (Chairman &CEO) US$1.4Billion
by Verizon (2011) US$0.445Billion
by Verizon (2007)
ICT Value Shifts Rapidly
Connecting A with B Easy Access to Information Search Information Delightful Experience - Impossible to Possible - Unaffordable to Affordable - More Human-front Services (ICT-innovated analogue services) - High Social Value Solution - Single Answer ( find my best one from crowdsourcing) - Intelligent Answer (avoid known failures) Game Changer, Black-box - Creation of Industry, Market, Social Structure - Users can be Servicers by sharing their own resources Sharing Information Mobile BB Internet with intuitive UI smartphone Convenient Shopping Utility IT Service (Public Cloud) Behavior / Preference Analysis & Target Marketing 13
Competition of Customer Experience ~ Retail Market in Japan~
Logistics Centric
- minimum delivery time by its own huge warehouse - Support purchase decision by personalized line-up
Cost and After-Sale Service Centric
- Networking local SMCs as decentralized warehouse and sales-support resource Strong ASKUL’s B2B (wholesale and logistics) Yahoo’s attracting portal and auction
Pleasure to make the most economical shopping
Pleasure to make the simplest shopping with the quickest delivery and long tail line up.
Face to face interaction with real human clerks ease and pleases net- phobia customers Human Service centric value
- S hop clerks’ face to face support service - Internet order with pick-up / layaway at shop - outsourcing for home kitchen/fridge & store - Multi-purpose hybrid terminal (ATM, Government Service, Entertainment tickets etc)
Active Tenants Centric
- Ultimate support to tenant shops
Pleasure like mall window shopping 14
Telecom Operators make Good Profits, Electronics Makers make Huge Losses
US$ Billion
20 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15)
Profits of listed companies for Apr-Sep, 2011 vs 2012 (not including Power and Monetary industry)
(Source: Nikkei) 2011 2Q 2012 2Q Manufacturing non-manufacturing
Japan Electronics - Financials
US$ Billion
Revenue
2011 2012 (Forecast) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
FY2011:1us$=80yen FY2012:1us$=94yen
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 6 4 2
US$ Billion
Net Profit / Loss
2011 2012 (Forecast)
All-Rounder ICT Consumer Electronics All-Rounder ICT Consumer Electronics 16
2012 Financial Fiasco Drives Them to Different Places Mr. Tsuga, president of Panasonic, targets $20Billion automobile related revenue in 2018. Assuming $70-80B of total Panasonic revenue in 2018, automobile and house related revenue is expected to consists its majority.
Panasonic Net loss 2011 ($9,652M) 2012 Forecast ($9,562M) Mr. Okuda, president of Sharp, tries to change its culture of growth by one-strong-product . He aims to become a leading hitter from being a slugger (home-run hitter). Sharp 2011 Net loss ($4,700M) 2012 Forecast ($5,625M) 1US$=80yen Mr. Hirai, president of Sony, commits to revive original Sony DNA, which product stimulates peoples curiosity and move users emotionally.
Sony Net loss 2011 ($5,708M) 2012 Forecast Net Profit $250M 17
Tough Paradigms for Vendors
Data Centers Standardize specs of DC => DC as commodity DCs Interworking and service orchestration is key technology Scale-out
Scale up ( 15,000 servers/ 1 operator) DC Terminals
Voice I/F on all things Terminals For illiteracy (48% of Indian people ) IAAS PAAS SAAS DC
Servers / Storages 20% of servers sold world-wide is bought by design servers and manufacture them by ODM Low power consumption is a key ARM processor server
Intel, SSD (Flash memory drive)
HHD
Network Platforms Generic LSI
Customized LSI make 10GPS OpenFlow switch by themselves DC Marketing
Real Value oriented Differentiate from competitors
Statistic Analysis of Point of Use
(Big Data) Co-creation with partners
Software Developer / Systems Integrator Vendors deliver service
Deliver complete software No more huge scale effort basis contract Vendor continue to develop while it is on service (No user requirements. Nobody knows final specification) Mashup and Customization service business will grow 18
Conclusions
- Government: - Regulation reform for new business emergence & government cost reduction - Telecom: - Cloud-infra (DC/Platform) Provider
Total Application Servicer - Service: - Social value oriented - Human-oriented service - ICT Vendors: - Tough time for restructuring ….
- Higher Technology
Service Value - Seeking for new value by vertical integration
Thank you
नमस्ते
Namaste
Harry Takeichi [email protected]