Transcript Employment Outcomes of College Graduates, How Do We

The Fast-Approaching Frontier:
Employment Outcomes of College Graduates
How Do We Make Sense of it All?
Patrick J. Kelly
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
Environmental Pressures
• Federal Gainful Employment
• Effective utilization of federal SLDS grants
• College attainment/completion goals – state retention of graduates
and economic returns
• Increased focus on “credentials of value” – the attainment of
credentials of less than two-years in length (primarily) that yield
living/competitive wages
• Meeting employment demand in key areas – e.g. health, education,
STEM, trades
• Increasing need for employment outcomes data to make the case for
continued investment (state and federal policymaking environments)
The Data are Simple
Institution Records
Employment/Wage Records
• Completions
• Level of Award
(Certificate, Associates,
Bachelor’s Masters,
Doctorate, Professional)
• CIP Code of Award – Field
of Study
Link
SSN
• Employed – record in the
database (excludes self
employed, military, and
employed out-of-state)
• Earnings
• Industry of Employment
• Region of Employment
• Continued Enrollment
Data Available by Term
Data Available Quarterly
Major Questions Answered
• What percentage of the graduates are employed instate – by level and type of award?
• Are the graduates employed in the region in which
they graduate?
• What are their quarterly earnings?
• What industries are the employed in? (only relevant in
a few fields)
• What percentage continue to enroll/persist in
postsecondary education?
Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (United States)
(Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Residents Who Earned Graduate/ Professional Degrees)
90,000
80,000
STEM
70,000
60,000
50,000
Health
Business and Communications
Employment
Outcomes
Metrics/
UI Data Match
Psychology and Social Sciences
Liberal Arts
Education
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Age
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Most Effective Uses of the Data
• State brain drain. Is the state retaining the graduates it produces?
How is it changing over time? (the impact on the degree and
attainment goals of the state).
• State-level supply and demand. What is the employment status
of graduates in key areas of demand for the state? E.g. health and
STEM fields, certain trades. Don’t fall into the trap of overly
detailed program-to-occupation supply and demand studies.
• Regional supply and demand. Are institutions producing
graduates that meet local employer needs? What are the
employment status and wages of the graduates they produce?
• Information for students and families. What programs provide
the highest wages in the short-run? What programs are more
likely to require continued education upon completion?
Institutional Accountability (Difficult at Best)
• Small numbers of graduates for many programs
• It is very difficult to calculate the “value added” by institution –
i.e. the likely employment and wages of students had they not
completed their college credentials
• The state economy treats graduates from some institutions better
than graduates from others (with the same credentials) – the
“prestige” factor
• Institutions serving large numbers of place-bound students are
victims of their local economy (e.g. a part of the state that has
low wages relative to other parts of the state)
• The difficult balance between directing students into programs
with competitive wages and providing student choice
Gates Foundation Voluntary Metrics Project
• Voluntary participation of 20 institutions – represented by
nearly all sectors
• Pilot a few employment outcomes metrics using the match
between graduate student unit records and the state
unemployment insurance (UI) databases
• Data Captured: Employment, continued enrollment, and
wages one and five years after graduation (by level and field
of study)
• Documentation of the results, barriers, what the data tell us,
what they don’t, and the most responsible/effective uses of
the data in policy and practice
Context
Why Indiana?
Focus of IndianaSkills.com
Career and training opportunities
associated with:
• Levels of education that are greater than
high school and less than a bachelor’s
degree.
• Typically requiring undergraduate
postsecondary certificates, certifications,
associates degrees.
Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds
Indiana
United States
40
35
33.5
30
27.0
25
22.4
22.2
19.1
20
16.2
15
12.6
11.2
10.7
10
8.6
8.4
8.2
5
0
Less than High
School
High School
Some College, No
Degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey
Associates
Degree
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate,
Professional
Degree
Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by
Education Level (2005-09)
4,000
3,085
3,000
2,815
2,611
2,000
1,127
1,000
0
-1,000
-765
-1,581
-2,000
Less than High High School Some College, Associates
School
Graduate
No Degree
Degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Bachelors
Degree
Graduate or
Professional
Degree
20
15
10
24.9
24.2
23.0
22.9
22.8
22.7
22.2
22.2
21.8
21.4
21.3
20.2
20.2
20.2
19.9
19.5
19.2
18.9
18.6
18.2
17.9
17.8
17.3
17.1
16.7
16.5
15.9
15.6
15.5
15.4
14.6
14.6
14.3
14.3
14.2
14.2
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.4
12.6
12.4
11.8
11.7
11.7
11.5
10.9
10.6
10.3
9.4
25
Mississippi
Arkansas
Kentucky
West Virginia
Alabama
Louisiana
New Mexico
Tennessee
Texas
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Arizona
Oklahoma
North Carolina
California
Nevada
Indiana
Idaho
Missouri
Ohio
United States
Michigan
Oregon
New York
Maine
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Montana
Illinois
Kansas
Vermont
Wisconsin
South Dakota
Delaware
Utah
Nebraska
Colorado
Washington
Iowa
Virginia
New Jersey
Alaska
Maryland
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Minnesota
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Hampshire
North Dakota
Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living
in Families not Earning Living Wage (2010)
30
5
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
-4
-3.0
-3.6
-3.8
1
-2
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
2
-1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
3
3.9
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
4
4.9
4.4
5
Indiana
Michigan
Georgia
Wisconsin
Ohio
Nevada
North Carolina
Idaho
Florida
Utah
Tennessee
Oregon
Minnesota
Colorado
Missouri
Delaware
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Illinois
Vermont
Alabama
United States
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Connecticut
Washington
Kansas
New Jersey
Nebraska
Arkansas
Iowa
Arizona
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Maine
Kentucky
Virginia
California
Texas
Mississippi
New York
Oklahoma
Alaska
South Dakota
New Mexico
Montana
Louisiana
Hawaii
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wyoming
6
Change in Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or
Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage – Since 2000
0
-3
-5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Supply
Information and Analysis Imposed –
A “Study”
Employers – “I’ve been telling you this
for years, we can’t find people with the
skills we need”
Education/Training Providers – “This is
great information but you’re asking us to
cut programs that generate revenue,
restructure/change faculty resources,
add programs that cost more to provide,
and change student choice?”
Demand
Information Made Accessible –
Creating an Environment for Change
Students
Information
Providers
Policymakers – “Interesting report but
the college in my district doesn’t like it”
Potential Students – “I have no clue the
report even exists, and wouldn’t read it if
I did”
Employers
Policymakers
Access to Data and Information that
Inform Users and Generates the
Public Will for Change
Website Designed to Help:
• Job seekers find career opportunities and short term
training programs that best match their skills and
interests, are in high demand, with competitive wages.
• Employers learn a great deal more about the
occupations they are hiring for, the skills and credentials
they should be requiring, and the wages being paid to
similar employees around the state.
• Students become better informed about short-term
training programs that lead to gainful employment in
the state and regions in which they live.
Data Sources
• General information about occupations –
U.S. Department of Labor, MyNextMove.org,
MySkillsMyFuture.org, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, O’net
• Real-time data on occupation demand –
Burning Glass
• Status of recent college graduates –
Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System (IWIS).
Most Job Postings for Sub-Baccalaureate Occupations
(Source: Burning Glass)
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Retail Salespersons
Registered Nurses
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Customer Service Representatives
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
General and Operations Managers
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
Office Clerks, General
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
Nursing Assistants
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers
Industrial Production Managers
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers
Tellers
Computer User Support Specialists
Food Service Managers
Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers
Cashiers
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
Insurance Sales Agents
Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics
Health Technologists and Technicians, All Other
Cooks, Restaurant
Production Workers, All Other
Personal Financial Advisors
Receptionists and Information Clerks
17,374
14,938
13,059
11,952
11,501
8,198
5,097
5,079
4,837
4,609
4,523
4,304
4,042
3,935
3,460
3,358
3,104
2,826
2,541
2,536
2,512
2,500
2,491
2,428
2,338
2,334
2,221
2,212
2,186
2,140
2,100
2,089
1,962
1,908
1,829
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Most Requested/Required Certifications
(Source: Burning Glass)
REGISTERED NURSE
LICENSED PRACTICAL NURSE (LPN)
COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE
CERTIFIED NURSING ASSISTANT
CDL CLASS A
FIRST AID CPR AED
AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATION
FIRST AID CPR AED
FORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATION
CERTIFIED OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY ASSISTANT
COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE
FIRST AID CPR AED
AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATION
LICENSED VOCATIONAL NURSE (LVN)
SERIES 6
CDL CLASS A
INSURANCE LICENSE
REGISTERED NURSE
CERTIFIED MEDICAL ASSISTANT
BASIC CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT CERTIFICATION
PHLEBOTOMY CERTIFICATION
COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE
CERTIFIED PHARMACY TECHNICIAN
CERTIFIED SURGICAL TECHNOLOGIST
REGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNICIAN
ADVANCED CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT (ACLS) CERTIFICATION
CERTIFIED A+ TECHNICIAN
INSURANCE LICENSE
REGISTERED RESPIRATORY THERAPIST
FORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATION
FIRST AID CPR AED
REGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION ADMINISTRATOR
INDIANA CERTIFIED NURSE AIDE
HOME HEALTH AIDE
SERIES 7
7,528
2,193
2,077
2,039
1,962
1,118
843
586
563
557
511
505
489
461
452
418
379
376
338
335
329
300
249
241
230
214
210
201
200
195
194
186
174
169
167
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Status of Recent College Graduates
(Source: Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System)
Example – Registered Nurses
60,000
5,000
56,200
4,521
4,500
50,000
4,000
3,665
3,500
40,000
3,000
31,856
30,000
2,500
2,000
20,000
1,500
1,000
10,000
465
500
391
0
0
Graduates from
2008-09 to
2009-10
Continued
Education
Employed in
Indiana
Not Employed,
Self Employed,
Employed Out of
State
Average Earnings One Average Earnings for All
Registered Nurses
Year After Graduation
Data and Information
Available by Region
Gary
South Bend
Fort Wayne
Lafayette
Indianapolis
Terre Haute
Bloomington
Columbus
New Albany
Evansville
Richmond
Additional Features
• “Top 10 Lists” – e.g. Occupations with greatest
demand, highest earnings, highest percentage of
employability, most requested certifications by Indiana
employers, most requested specialized skills by Indiana
employers, etc.
• Job Description Creator – an easy-to-use tool that
enables employers to generate job descriptions for
occupations they are hiring for – utilizing the data and
information on the website (e.g. typical level of
education required, certifications associated with the
occupation, wages earned by Indiana employees, etc.)
Add Screenshots of
IndianaSkills.com