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Transcript Presentation - Environmental Science and Policy Program
Changing Climates for
Adaptation
BONNIE J. MCCAY
FATE OF THE EARTH: ENVIRONMENT AND
HUMAN WELL-BEING
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
APRIL3, 2014
General Lessons
Wicked problems…
Rittel & Webber 1973
Muddling through
strategically
Governance of complex
systems should be
“polycentric” (Ostrom) and
“interactive” (Kooiman)
Beyond panaceas
E. Ostrom 2007
Act boldly, risk failure
AO Hirschman (The Hidden
Hand)
But be adaptive
Holling; Gunderson et al.
Chas. Lindblom
[Participate] Early and Often
A. Capone?
Once they have seen gay
Paree
Cultural inertia and resistance
You can’t go home again;
Path dependency;
irreversibility. ITQs
Horse is out of the barn
[Too little, too late].
Acidification
trends in marine fisheries management
Market-based
Ecosystem-based
Commodity-focused
Multiple-species
Exclusive and
Regime shifts
tradeable withdrawal
or use rights
Efficiencies
Concentration
Incentives for userfunded research
Protected areas
Hard choices
Multi-stakeholder
Scale issues
Spatial planning
Shifting paradigms
Climate change: Fates & consequences for the
earth’s oceans
Warmer sea temperatures
Changes in stratification,
upwelling, etc.
Glacier Melting and
Reduction of sea ice
Acidification
Exploitation pressure
Harvesting
Dredging
Dumping
Introducing alien species
Changes in living
communities: plankton,
benthos, pelagics
Changes in ecologically
productive and sensitive
habitats: coral reefs, grass
beds, kelp forests,
submarine canyons and
mtns; etc.
Effects on coastal places—
sea level rise, storm surges,
salinization…
DIMINISHED
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES &
ELEVATED DANGERS
Hurricane Sandy from space, Oct. 2012
And then comes the sea
“Comedies of the Commons”
People as problem-
solvers as well as
problem-creators
People as social beings,
trying to deal with and
correct what seems out of
kilter.
“The drama of humans
as social rather than
private beings, a drama
of social actions having a
frankly corrective
purpose.” (M.E. Smith, 1984;
McCay and Acheson 1987).
“The Commons”
Framework for thought and action
“tragedy of the commons” –open access, profit-
seeking, little communication or governance.
“romances/comedies of the commons” –governance,
communication, boundaries of various kinds, efforts
to manage for present benefit and sustainable
futures.
Objectifications: Leviathan, Hidden Hand, Noble
Savage….versus more complex unfoldings, social and
ecological processes, unexpected outcomes (Boonstra &
Heung 2011)
Four stories
Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the
commons and/or regime shifts
New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the
commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and
climate change
Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of
the commons, community-based control and comanagement. Marine reserves and resilience.
Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification:
surprise, adaptive responses.
“Tragedy of the Northern Cod”
Fishery closed June
1992.
Plot of a tragedy….
Late 1980s, small-scale
Contexts: collapse and
fishers petitioned for
study, review
Government scientists
found errors in stock
assessments
Fishery continued
nonetheless
Official disaster 1992
privatization of
corporate, industrial
fisheries
Inaccuracies, analytic
problems with data
“We’re all to blame”
Scope and scale of fish
stocks versus
‘communities”
Responses after the cod collapse. Emergence of a
more complicated plot
Leave fisheries (especially for shale oil and mining in western
Canada); rural depopulation
Diversify into crustacean fisheries (crab and shrimp), more
capital-intensive; more precautionary, exclusive management.
Variable water temperatures; quest for stability,
with vested interests and political commitments
Eco-Certification:
commitments to
sustainable fisheries
through MSC
US Northeast: Responses to Climate Change
Fisheries followed the
fish….but only 10-30% as
much.
Economic & regulatory
constraints
Effects on fish stocks of
lagged human
responses?
Incorporation into fish
stock assessment and
management?
Pinsky & Fogarty 2012; McCay 2013
Source: Nye et al. 2009
Surf Clam
Case
Decline in southern
portion of clam
distribution
Some industry shift
north but…
50% of landings from
two ten minute squares,
tho’ decline in catch rates
Opening of northern
clam beds despite PSP
risks, 2013
Industry resists scientific
& regulatory changes;
ITQs & global
competition
Surfclam case study
Local-level & nested commons
management: a Mexican case
FISHING COOPERATIVES
OF THE VIZCAINO PENINSULA,
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
Spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus)
a. Lobster
2,000
$40,000,000
1,500
$30,000,000
1,000
$20,000,000
500
0
$10,000,000
income (US Dollars)
$50,000,000
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
catch (t) (live weight)
2,500
Baja Calif. Linkages…
Z o n a P acífico N o rte, Á reas C o n cesio n ad as a cad a C o o p erativa
2 9 .0 0
2 8 .8 0
2 8 .6 0
P escadores N acionales de Abulón
2 8 .4 0
2 8 .2 0
2 8 .0 0
La P urísim a
2 7 .8 0
Buzos y P escadores
2 7 .6 0
Bahía Tortugas
2 7 .4 0
Em ancipación
2 7 .2 0
2 7 .0 0
California de San Ignacio
Pr ogr eso
2 6 .8 0
Leyes de Reform a
2 6 .6 0
Punta Abreojos
2 6 .4 0
2 6 .2 0
-1 1 6 .0 0
-1 1 5 .6 0
-1 1 5 .2 0
-1 1 4 .8 0
-1 1 4 .4 0
-1 1 4 .0 0
-1 1 3 .6 0
-1 1 3 .2 0
Successful Local-Level “Commons”
Management:
Being benthic: close scale
clarity of social and
match between scale of the
coop fisheries and biology
of the major species
& the productivity,
visibility and legibility of
the resources and fisheries
involved;
Strong commitment to
enforcement and
democratic decisionmaking
territorial boundaries;
adjacency and linkages
among territorial units;
federation
tight embeddedness of the
cooperatives and fisheries
within communities.
(isolation, dependency)
McCay et al. 2013 (Marine
Policy)
Coupling and “negative feedback”—
Fishery cooperatives of BCS, Mexico
Threats of severe loss through closures
“Co-management” arrangements with government
agencies
“Self-management” internal rules for lobster &
abalone
Nested “governance” systems, supported by larger
political, legal, social systems, linked to larger
marine conservation community, globalized
markets, and consumers (scales)
Experimental marine reserves:
Isla Natividad
Managing for resilience: the Marine Protected
Area experiment
2010 the Coop established
experimental closed areas
for abalone reef
management, with help of
NGOs & scientists.
Improved lobster &
abalone.
Local monitoring
Anoxic event 2012, die-off
of abalone.
Commitment to marine
reserve strategy
Responses to Acidification: the West Coast
Oyster Case
Whiskey Creek Hatchery,
Oregon
Responses
2007-08 die-off
Research,
CO2; carbonate less
experimentation
Change in practices in
hatcheries
available, esp. upwelling
water
Industry lobby; funds for
research; Monitoring
systems; increase
carbonate levels; Lummi
use saltwater pond
What to do?
Tall orders
national, international,
and regional authorities
Global, regional, ‘large
marine ecosystem’ scales
ENGO and governmentled programs: coral
triangle; MPA networks;
Marine spatial planning;
high seas fisheries; dealing
with IUU; Ecocertification;….
Short orders
Local and communityoriented
Small scale enterprises
Traditional & experiencebased knowledge
partnerships for
“commons” science &
management
Place-based TURFs and
MPAs
Community-supported
fisheries
Linkages
Vertical : “Co-
management” & nested
governance
Local group/ outsiders
(NGOs, scientists)/
government authority
Shared decision-making,
authority, responsibility
Large- and small-scale
fisheries
Horizontal: networks
Ex.: Too Big to Ignore
network (Canada);
2nd World Small-Scale
Fisheries Congress 21-25
Sept. 2014, Merida, MX
World Ocean Council
Eco-certification
programs
Marine Stewardship
Council
Four stories
Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the commons
and/or regime shifts;
New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the
commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and sea
temperature change
Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of the
commons, community-based control and comanagement. Marine reserves and resilience in face of
ocean changes.
Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification:
surprise, adaptive responses.
>>all beg the question of ecosystem-based management
Ecosystem-Based Management & Adaptive
Governance
Challenge---large spatial
scope, more complex
subject: Centralized
decision-making for
multi-disciplinary
expertise, knowledge
accumulation and
analysis, interagency
coordination
But also more
Decentralized and
Participatory across
multiple scales, to
monitor and capture
detailed knowledge
about ecological &
social processes across
local to global scales
Wilson 2009
General Lessons
It’s wicked…
Rittel & Webber 1973
Governance of complex
systems should be
“polycentric” (Ostrom) and
“interactive” (Kooiman)
You can’t go home again;
Path dependency;
irreversibility. ITQs
Horse is out of the barn
[Too little, too late].
Acidification
Beyond panaceas
E. Ostrom 2007
Act boldly, risk failure
AO Hirschman (The Hidden
Hand)
But be adaptive
Holling; Gunderson et al.
Muddling through vs.
Strategic Planning
Chas. Lindblom
[Participate] Early and Often
A. Capone?
Once they have seen gay
Paree
Cultural inertia and resistance
Thank you
Questions?