Transcript Dr. Shahram Yazdani

Brain Drain
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
School of Medical Education
Strategic Policy Sessions: 12
For every complex problem,
there’s a simple, obvious answer
that just happens to be wrong!
H.L. Menken
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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Between 150,000-180,000 Iranians try
to immigrate by various means
annually
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The latest figures released by the
International Monetary Found (IMF)
indicates that Iran ranks first in brain drain
among 61 developing and less developed
countries (LDC).
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Our part in others development !
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
1.434 million people (12%) out of the 12 million
people who have science and engineering
degrees in the U.S.A., are of foreign origin.
Over 72% of these were originally born in a
developing country.
23% of those having a doctorate are not U.S.A.
born citizens
This proportion in key areas such as
engineering and computer sciences is 40%
The SESTAT database of the National Science Foundation (NSF) 2005
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Effect on mother land
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
For large countries like India and China, which dominate
in terms of absolute numbers, skilled migration does not
amount to a significant share of their educated
workforces.
Indeed, only 1.1 and 1.4 percent of India and China’s
skilled labour forces respectively had moved to the USA
in 1990, although additional evidence – suggests that
these migrants come from the top end of the skill
distribution.
In Ghana, for example, over a quarter of the educated
labour force lived in OECD countries in 1990, the share
rises to over 60 percent for the Gambia and approaches
80 percent for Jamaica.
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China
India
Pakistan
Mexico
Turkey
Iran
Malaysia
Population,
millions
1238
979
131
95
63
62
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Migration
rate
1.4
1.1
2.4
10.3
1.4
14.7
4.4
Total expenditure on
tertiary education,
per student $
1943
2014
448
3459
3365
398
4901
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Islamic Republic of Iran
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Who are the expatriates?
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Of 125 Iranian high school students who
have won awards at International Science
Olympiads over the past three years, 90
of them are now at US universities (2001
figures)
More than 150,000 Iranian surgeons and
engineers now live in the United States
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Demographical profile of the Iranian immigrant
community in the United States
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84% speak fluent English.
46% have a bachelors degree or higher
43% are in professional and managerial
positions
35% in technical and administrative
48% are dual income earners
22% own their own businesses.
Median family income is $55,501 (substantially
above the national average of $35,492) and per
capita income is $18,040.
92% have a mortgage.
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Brain Flow
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Expatriate Group
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SusceptibleStable
Group Group
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Brain Flow
Internal Factors
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Disease vs. Symptom
Migration of educated people is not the
‘disease’
It is the
‘symptom’
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Comparative Study
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Country
Russia
Population X Mio
142
GDP x Mio
$ 1,287,000
GDP/capita
$
8,230
GDP growth rate
7.3%
Inflation
13.7%
R&D spending as a % of GDP
1.2%
R&D spending x Mio
15,444
R&D spending per capita
$
109
Researchers per mio pop.
3,494
Researchers pop.
496,148
Article output 2003
26,723
Article output per 100 researchers
5.4
Internet users x Mio.
6.0
Total journal market
€ 11,326,176
Total journal spend/researcher €
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Iran
$
72
133,2 $
1,850 $
0.3%
414
$
6 $
698
50,326
3,276
6.5
4.8
€ 20,000,000 €
€
397 €
China
1,313
6,449,000
4,580
9.1%
1.2%
1.1%
70,939
55
584
758,527
42,369
5.5
79.5
120,250,180
159
$
$
$
€
€
India
1,081
3,033,000
2,670
8.3%
3.8%
0.8%
24,264
22
99
107,019
18,169
16.0
18.5
54,614,500
510
UK
60
$
1,666,000
$
26,150
2.2%
1.4%
1.9%
31,654
$
525
2,667
160,743
58,350
36.3
25.0
€ 116,870,622
€
727
Sweden
$
$
$
€
€
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238,300
26,050
1.7%
1.9%
4.6%
10,962
1,234
5,186
46,083
13,447
29.2
5.1
26,633,304
578
•UNESCO: http:www.uis.unesco.org/profiles/EN/GEN/countryProfile_en.aspx?code=3560
•www.irandoc.ac.ir
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
Selfactualization
Needs
Esteem Needs
Love, Affection and
Belongingness Needs
Safety Needs
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Physiological Needs.
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Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
Selfactualization
Needs
Esteem Needs
Love, Affection and
Belongingness Needs
Safety Needs
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Physiological Needs.
50 meters of housing costs between 12,500,000
to more than 75,000,000 Toomans
Marriage rate decreases and mean age of
marriage increases significantly mainly
due to financial problem
There is intense demand for university places.
The entrance exams are very competitive and
Less than 15% of the approximately 1.5 million
people who take the exams annually, actually
begin studies.
Unemployment, officially at 13 percent, is closer
to 20 percent, according to independent
economists.
each year 270,000 university graduates enter
the job market, whereas only 75,000 can be
absorbed.
Some 4,000 physicians, 14,000 midwives,
and 17,000 nurses are unemployed, and
hospitals are laying off personnel while
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5,000 medical students graduate every year.
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
Selfactualization
Needs
Esteem Needs
Love, Affection and
Belongingness Needs
Safety Needs
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Physiological Needs.
Perhaps more important, underemployment
is the norm.
The average engineer makes $150 to $250 a
month, slightly less than the monthly income
of a taxi driver and 10 times less than what he
might have made some 20 years ago.
Independent economists estimate that Iran needs
to create close to 1 million jobs a year to keep
up with its youthful population.
In order for Iran to meet its high demand for
jobs, up to $10 billion a year of productive
investment will be required,"
100,000-400,000 job per $1,000,000,000
Over 70 percent of the industrial companies is
state-owned and small industries make up
92.6 percent of the total industrial sector
Only 1.4 percent of employment creators
posses the necessary credentials to manage
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an industrial unit.
Important variables for brain drain in Iran
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Brain Flow
External Factors
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The United States
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22% of the worlds R&D workforce,
40% of the worlds GERD (Gross
Expenditure in R&D) and mainstream
science production
30-50% of the patents of technological
innovation, in the world
O.S.T. 1996 p341, UNESCO 1998, pp23-25
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Intellectual Dilution
Intellectual Pool (%)
Group
Generational
MoreNormal
More
Brain Drain
Transmission
Iso-intellectual
Skewness of
atReproduction
Distribution
upper IQ range
ofat
Intellectual
Marriage
to Right
Lower IQ
IQ Range
Capacity
IQ
Prevalence
115-129
1:6 - 1:40
Moderately Gifted
130-144
1:40 - 1:1000
Highly Gifted
145-159
1:1000 - 1:10,000
Exceptionally Gifted
160-179
1:10,000 - 1:1 million
180+
Fewer than 1:1 million
Frequency
Profoundly Gifted
IQ
Intellectual Capacity
Mildly (or Basically) Gifted
IQ
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IQ
Brain Drain
Reproduction
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Effect on unskilled employment
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There is an optimal balance between the
number of
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skilled labor workforce
unskilled labor workforce
Brain Drain also leads to unskilled
unemployment
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Brain Flow
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“Block” Option
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Failed
to Bring
Feasible
Effective
Main Policy
before
1980sorwas
to
Prevent or(Meyer
Regulate
Brain
Drain
Solutions
et al.
1997).
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“Compensate” Option
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Cancel Compensate
the Negative for:
Effects
Education Costs
$
of BrainHigher
Drain through
Elementary and Middle Education Costs
Taxation.
Social Subsides
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“Compensate” Option
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Theoretical Assumptions on which these
Policies were Based are Wrong
They basically referred to human capital
approaches where the skilled person is
conceived as an individual capital asset, made
of all his/her qualifications and professional
experience resulting of prior investments (Gary
Becker).
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The human capital approach reflects but a small
part of the phenomenon.
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“Return” Option
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The “More”
Option: Pool
Unchanged
Susceptible
More Money
More Respect
More Opportunity
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“Return” Option
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The Republic of Korea has focused on
encouraging skilled emigrants to return,
rather than invest at home.
Intensive recruiting programs search out
older professionals and scholars and offer
them salaries competitive with overseas
incomes, better working conditions, and
help with housing and children’s
schooling.
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“Return” Option
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Visiting professor programs allow the Republic
of Korea to tap the expertise of those uncertain
about returning home for good.
These initiatives, backed by the country’s
improved economy, have produced strong
results.
In the 1960’s, just 16 percent of Korean
scientists and engineers with doctorates from
the United States returned to Korea. In the
1980’s, that share jumped to about 70 percent.
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Intellectual Capital
Social and
Scientific
Infrastructures
Communicating
And Supporting
Networks
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“Scientific Diaspora” Option
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Brain Gain Concept
the expatriate skilled population
may be considered as a potential asset
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The Scientific Diaspora Option
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It takes for granted that many of the expatriates
are not likely to return. They have often settled
abroad and built their professional as well as
their personal life there.
However, they may still be very concerned with
the development of their country of origin,
because of religious, cultural, family or other
ties.
The objective, then, is to create the links
through which they could effectively and
productively be connected to its development,
without any physical temporary or permanent
return.
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The Scientific Diaspora Option
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This type of distant cooperative work is now
possible as cases of international research
projects or multinational corporations’ (MNC).
Relationships between expatriate intellectuals
and their mother country have often existed in
the past.
What is new today, is that these sporadic,
exceptional and limited links may now become
systematic, dense and multiple.
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The Scientific Diaspora Option
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Student/Scholarly Networks,
Local Associations of Skilled Expatriates,
Expert pool assistance through the
Transfer of Knowledge Through
Expatriate Nationals (TOKTEN) program
of the UNDP
Intellectual/Scientific Diaspora Networks.
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Developing
Established and organized
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Networked Activities
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Conferences
Seminars
Workshops
Focus group discussions
Social events such as dinners, new year
Newsletter or news groups
Joint developmental projects
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“Absorb-Prevent” Option
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“Absorb-Prevent” Option
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Investment on:
Involve
them in:
Develop Education
a Shared Vision
Sustainable
Development Process
R&D
Infrastructures
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“Absorb-Prevent” Option
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This option has been successfully realized in
various new industrialized countries (NICs)
such as Singapore and the Republic of Korea or
big developing countries such as India and
China (Charum, Meyer, 1999).
Strong programs to repatriate many of their
skilled nationals abroad have been put in place
since 1980.
They have created at home the networks in
which these returnees could effectively find a
place and be operational.
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“Absorb-Prevent” Option
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These countries are the ones that significantly
invest in S&T material as well as human
infrastructure.
They had started to build the research and
technico-industrial web which could
appropriately sustain such R&D activities
employing S&E.
Obviously the success of that option depends
very much on this specific capacity. Such a
prerequisite is not easily matched by many
developing countries.
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Thank You !
Any Question ?