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These slides were developed for David Lam’s presidential address to the 2011 annual meeting of the
Population Association of America, Washington, D.C., April 1, 2011. They have been revised since
the address to incorporate the U.N.’s latest population estimates. The notes roughly follow the
script of the presidential address.
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the paper:
David Lam, “How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of
extraordinary demographic history,” Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, August 2011.
Excellent research assistance in production of the paper and the slides was provided by Kendra
Goostrey.
David Lam
Professor, Department of Economics
Research Professor, Population Studies Center
University of Michigan
[email protected]
http://personal.psc.isr.umich.edu/~davidl/
August 10, 2011
How the World Survived the
Population Bomb
Lessons from 50 Years of
Extraordinary Demographic History
David Lam
University of Michigan
World population is projected
to reach 7 billion in 2011.
We reached 6 billion in 1999.
United Nations Population Division Estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Thomas Malthus
1766-1834
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
1960
World population
reached 3 billion
Time Magazine
January 1960
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
1963
World population growth
reached 2.2% per year.
U.S. Census Bureau Estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
1968
Paul Ehrlich publishes
The Population Bomb
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How unusual was the
demography of the 1960s?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Population
Doubling times
39 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Population
Doubling times
39 years
70 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Population
Doubling times
39 years
70 years
150 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Population
Doubling times
39 years
70 years
150 years
500 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Population
Doubling times
39 years
70 years
150 years
500 years
1200 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Population
Doubling times
What is the
next number
in this
sequence?
39 years
70 years
150 years
500 years
1200 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the
world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the
world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the
world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years
g. Over 1000 years?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the
world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years
g. Over 1000 years?
h. Forever?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
16
14
U.N. projections of world
population to 2100
12
High, Medium, and Low Variants
10
8
6
15.8 Billion
10.1 Billion
1999
6 Billion
2011
7 Billion
6.2 Billion
4
2
1960
3 Billion
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Annual growth rate of world population
1963
2.19%
(Census Bureau)
1968
2.03%
(UN)
UN estimates
and projections
Census Bureau
estimates and
2010
projections
Pre-1950 estimates 1.15%
0.01
0.00
-0.5%
-0.01
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
-1.0%
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
The Demographic
Transition
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
50
Demographic Transition
45
Southeast Asia
40
35
30
Rate of Natural Increase Crude Birth Rate
25
20
15
10
Crude Death Rate
5
per 1000 population
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
60
Demographic Transition
50
Sub-Saharan Africa
Birth rate
40
30
Rate of Natural Increase
20
Death rate
10
per 1000 population
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
50
Demographic Transition
45
World
40
35
30
Crude Birth Rate
25
Rate of Natural Increase
20
15
10
Crude Death Rate
5
per 1000 population
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Three Big Concerns
1. Would we be able to feed everyone?
2. Would we run out of resources?
3. Would poverty increase?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Food Production
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“The world, especially the developing
world, is rapidly running out of food…. In
fact, the battle to feed humanity is already
lost, in the sense that we will not be able
to prevent large-scale famines in the next
decade or so.”
- Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
170
160
150
World Food Production
1961-1980
156
(1961=100)
143
140
130
120
110
110
100
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization
90
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“As the 1980’s begin, the growth in world
production is losing momentum and its
excess over population growth is
narrowing.”
Lester Brown, Science 1981
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
350
300
World Food Production
1961-2009
313
(1961=100)
250
220
200
150
141
100
Food and Agriculture Organization
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Food Production
in India
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“My examination of the trend of India’s
grain production over the last eighteen
years leads me to the conclusion that the
present 1967-1968 production…is at a
maximum level.”
-Louis H. Bean,
quoted in Paul Ehrlich,
The Population Bomb, 1968
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
300
250
India Food Production
1961-1990
(1961=100)
227
200
188
150
120
100
Food and Agriculture Organization
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“Since 1983, India’s rising grain production
has lost momentum….the country
appears to be facing a catastrophic
problem in the 1990s...”
Paul Ehrlich & Anne Ehrlich
The Population Explosion, 1990
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
400
350
300
India Food Production
1961-2009
361
(1961=100)
262
250
200
150
137
100
Food and Agriculture Organization
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Food Production in
Sub-Saharan Africa
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
400
350
300
Sub-Saharan Africa
Food Production
1961=100
359
335
250
200
150
100
Per Capita Food Production
93
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“It’s difficult to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
and/or
Neils Bohr
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Resource Depletion
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Julian Simon
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“If you are prepared to pay me now the
current market price for $1,000 worth of
any mineral you name, I will agree to pay
you the market price of the same amount
of that raw material on any future date
you now specify.”
Julian Simon, 1981
The Ultimate Resource
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Julian Simon’s bet with Paul Ehrlich
Chromium
1980, $200
1990, $120
Nickel
1980, $200
1990, $193
Copper
1980, $200
1990, $163
Tin
1980, $200
1990, $56
Tungsten
1980, $200
1990, $86
$0
$50
Total inflationadjusted cost fell
from $1000 in 1980
to $618 in 1990
$100
$150
$200
$250
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
300
Real prices of metals1960-2010
(1980=100)
250
Nickel
Simon-Ehrlich bet
200
150
100
50
Copper
Tin
Chromium
Tungsten
Source: USGS
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
200
Real commodity prices 1960-2010
180
(1980=100)
160
Food
140
120
100
Non-Energy
80
60
40
Energy
20
Source: World Bank
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Poverty
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
100
Percent in Poverty
90
Low and Middle Income Countries
(in 2005 US dollars)
80
70
< $2.00 per day
60
50
< $1.25 per day
47%
40
< $1.25 per day
29%
30
excluding China
25%
20
10
World Bank estimates
0
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
4.0
Number in Poverty (Billions)
3.5
Low and Middle Income Countries
3.0
2.5
2.6
< $2.00 per day
2.0
1.5
< $1.25 per day
1.0
< $1.25 per day (excluding China)
1.4
1.2
0.5
World Bank estimates
0.0
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
100
Percent in Poverty
90
<$1.25 per day
80
70
Sub-Saharan Africa
60
50
South Asia 50.9
40.3
40
East Asia
30
20
Latin America 16.8
10
8.2
World Bank estimates
0
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How did we survive?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses
2. Innovation
3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses
2. Innovation
3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
600
500
400
300
Vietnam Food Production
1961=100
552
1981-89
liberalization
255
216
200
100
Food and Agriculture Organization
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses
2. Innovation
3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Norman Borlaug, “Father of the Green Revolution”
1970 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
400
350
Productivity:
Yield per hectare
1961=100
Wheat-India
300
Wheat-World
250
Rice-World
200
150
Rice-India
100
50
Food and Agriculture Organization
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses
2. Innovation
3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
35
Exports as % of GDP
30
25
20
15
High income
countries
Low and Middle
Income Countries
10
5
0
1960
World Bank estimates
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization
2. Fertility decline
3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization
2. Fertility decline
3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
10
Urban and Rural Population
9.3
World (billions)
9
Total
8
7
6.4
6
Urban
5
2009
50% urban
4
3
2.9
Rural
2
1
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization
2. Fertility decline
3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
6
5
4
3
Total Fertility Rate
World
5.0
Decline of 47%
from 1950 to 2010
Decline of 82%
relative to
replacement fertility
2.5
2
1
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
8
Total Fertility Rate
7
6
5
5.1
4
3
2
1
2.8
2.3
East Asia 1.6
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Why did fertility
fall so rapidly?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
8
TFR by Wanted TFR
7
74 DHS countries
N=185
TFR
6
5
4
3
TFR=1.07(0.12)+0.98(0.033)WTFR
R2=.83
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Wanted TFR
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
0.4
Change in TFR by Change in Wanted TFR
Change in TFR per year
0.3
43 DHS countries
N=95
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
DTFR=-0.028(0.006)+0.829(0.085)DWTFR
R2=.466
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2 -0.1
0
0.1 0.2 0.3
Change in Wanted TFR per year
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
0.4
Demography
1. Urbanization
2. Fertility decline
3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
100% Percentage of cohort with
90% primary schooling, Brazil
80%
72%
70%
Female
64%
60%
50%
Male
40%
30%
20%
10%
Census data via IPUMS-International
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
David Lam, How the world survived the population
bomb, University
of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Year
age 10
Why did schooling
increase so rapidly?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS)
University of Cape Town – University of Michigan
Major support from NICHD
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Enrollment rate of Africans who have
not completed secondary school
Cape Area Panel Study 2005
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Larger Cohorts and
Smaller Families
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
The Transition from
Quantity to Quality
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
9
8
7
Years of schooling of 16-17
year-olds, Brazil
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
1991
1980
1970
1960
Census data via IPUMS-International
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Children born to mother
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
9
8
7
Years of schooling of 16-17
year-olds, Brazil
6
3.34 increase
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.98 increase
2000
1991
1980
1970
1960
Census data via IPUMS-International
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Children born to mother
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Have we really survived?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Mean annual temperature (Fahrenheit)
Global average, 1880-2010
Source: NASA
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, U.S., 1900-2005
(1900=100)
Source: Smith et al 2011
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
400
350
300
250
Food Price Index
(2000=100)
January
2011
243
200
150
100
50
Source: World Bank
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
What will 2050 be like?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011