Transcript PowerPoint - Climate Conferences

„Die kalte Sonne“
The cold Sun
The Medieval Warm Period within the Context of
Millennial Scale Climate Cycles
Dr Sebastian Lüning
„The Cold Sun – Why climate catastrophe is called off“
New book reminds IPCC scientists of the
important role of natural climate drivers
> Publication date: February 2012
> Authors:
– Prof Fritz Vahrenholt: CEO Renewable Energy Company
– Dr Sebastian Lüning: Geologist
> English edition: to be published in fall 2012
Fritz Vahrenholt
Sebastian Lüning
Reaction of the Climate Establishment
Prof Mojib Latif (University of Kiel):
“When reading the book as a scientist, my hair stands on
end. This is a pseudo-scientific treatise.”
Prof Hartmut Graßl (formerly Director of the World Climate Research
Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
in Geneva):
“Well, you know, I don‘t really want to comment on this
rubbish.“
Prof Jochem Marotzke (Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for
Meteorology in Hamburg):
“The book authors have read a lot but understood very
little.“
But there were also positive reactions
Economy Program ECO of Swiss Television:
Book Tip of the Week (23 April 2012)
Hamburger Abendblatt:
“Cora Stephan once criticised the intellectual
doldrums in Germany. What an irony that a wind
energy manager of all people has to experience this
lull”
PM Magazin:
“Science is vulnerable to group think. Once a consensus
has formed it becomes hard to express doubts. This is
particularly true in the politically sensitive climate
sciences. The subject is too important for that it could be
allowed to suppress opinions deviating from the alleged
consens. And this is why the climate discussion needs
people like Vahrenholt.“
Daily Climate News on our Blog: www.kaltesonne.de
The Beginning
> Fred Singer/Dennis Avery:
„Unstoppable Global warming - every
1,500 years“
> Published in 2006
> New York Times Bestseller
Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles during the last Ice Age:
1,470 years cycle
> Cycles with 1,470 years
duration
> Grouped into bundles of
cycles with common trends
> Temperatue changes of up
to 10°C within a few decades
> DO-cycles occurred in
Pleistocene (last ice age).
> What is their significance in
postglacial times, the last
10,000 years?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
Primary solar activity cycle periods
> There is no 1,500 year cycle
periode in the primary solar
activity record
> Next closest cycles are the
– Eddy cycle (1000 years)
and the
– Hallstatt cycle (2300 years)
> Stefan Rahmstorf suggests
Gleissberg/Suess-de-Vries cycle
combination for Pleistocene DOcycles.
Spectral Analysis of sunspot data
(data: Solanki et al. 2004, analysis from Kern et al. 2012)
Start of a new field of research in 2001:
Solar-forced millennial-Scale Climate Cycles in the
North Atlantic
Ice Rafted Debris as Climate Proxy
http://www.ccstib.fr/Climats-dupasse-le-climat-de-l,209.html
Bond et
al. 2001
http://www2.imperial.ac.uk/blog/wilkesl
andiodpexpedition/2010/01/19/19january-2010-icebergs/
studied
cores
Synchronicity between Solar Activity and
Temperature in North Atlantic
cold
warm
thousand years before present
Solar activity (blue curve): C14 as proxy for cosmic rays which are modulated by solar magnetic field
Temperature (black curve): HSG=Hematite Stained Grains=ice berg debris
Bond et al. 2001
Gerard Bond (1940-2005)
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/record/23/10/13.html
Bond‘s Follow-up
Study 2003: The
Same Milennial-Scale
Cycles in a Lake in
Alaska
IPCC AR4 lead author Stefan Rahmstorf on Bond et al. 2001:
„Bond cycles could not be reproduced in later studies“
> Rahmstorf about Bond et al 2001:
– Bond cycles could not be
reproduced by other scientists.
– In later years Bond did not believe
his results himself.
– Bond cycles are a dead end street
in climate science.
http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/blog/klimalounge/klimadaten/2010-07-14/heiss-globale-rekord-temperatur
Did Bond really give up on his Bond cycles?
No! He even published about them just before passing away
Müller et al. 2005
Kemp et al. (January 2012 in Quaternary Research):
Bond Cycles in South East Australia
> Precipitation (upper
curve) and temperatures
(lower curve) in
synchronicity with Bond‘s
North Atlantic cycles
> North Atlantic Cold
periods marked by grey
bars
Kemp et al. 2012
Cléroux et al. (February 2012 in Paleoceanography):
Bond Cycles off Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina
> Temperature off Cape
Hatteras (blue curve) and
solar activity (red curve) in
synchronicity with Bond‘s
North Atlantic cycles
Cléroux et al. 2012
Steinhilber et al. (April 2012 in PNAS):
Bond Cycles in Chinese Cave
> Delta 18O reflects precipitation and strength of Asiatic monsoon
> High degree of synchronity with solar activity changes
Steinhilber et al. 2012
Neff et al. 2001 in Nature:
Synchronicity between solar activity
and temperature development in
dripstones of Oman for the period
7500-4500 BC
Neff et al. 2001
Greenland Temperature reconstruction for the
past 5,000 years based on deuterium in ice
cores
Carter 2008
Solar induced
millennialscale cycles
everywhere
North Atlantic
Greenland
Alaska
China (1)
Oman
India
West Virginia
China (2)
A miracle: How did the sun do the trick?
> Radiative forcing
according to IPCC AR4:
– CO2: 1.66 W/m2
– Sun: 0,12 W/m2
> Sun has hardly any
climatic significance in
the IPCC models
Medieval Warm Period
and
Modern Warm Period
as part of the Bond cycle
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response
What would be the natural continuation?
1850
1000
0
1000
TODAY
AD
BC.
Sun
Minoan
Warm Period
Roman
Warm Period
Modern
Warm Period
Medieval
Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
CO2
Cold Period
Cold Period
(Migration
Period)
Little
Ice Age
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #1
The Hockey Stick Illusion
Michael Mann
Steve McIntyre
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response
The Hockey Stick Illusion
1850
1000
0
1000
TODAY
AD
BC.
Sun
Minoan
Warm Period
Roman
Warm Period
Modern
Warm Period
Medieval
Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
CO2
Cold Period
Cold Period
(Migration
Period)
Little
Ice Age
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response
The Hockey Stick Illusion
1850
1000
0
1000
TODAY
AD
BC.
Sun
Minoan
Warm Period
Roman
Warm Period
Modern
Warm Period
Medieval
Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
CO2
Cold Period
Cold Period
(Migration
Period)
Little
Ice Age
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2
Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2
Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes
1850
1000
0
1000
Sun
Volcano?
TODAY
AD
BC.
Volcano?
Minoan
Warm Period
Volcano?
Roman
Warm Period
Volcano
Modern
Warm Period
Medieval
Warm Period
Temperature
Cold Period
CO2
Cold Period
Cold Period
(Migration
Period)
Little
Ice Age
The 1000-year cycle
Increase of Temperature, CO2 and Solar Activity
Temperature
> Besides temperature and
CO2 also solar activity has
increased over the past 150
years.
> The solar magnetic field has
more than doubled.
CO2
Sun
Solar activity of the past decades was one of the
highest over the past 10.000 years
Solanki et al. 2004 (nature):
17
Synchronicity between solar activity and
streamflow of Parana River over past 100 years
after Mauas et al. 2010
Solar Schwabe 11 year cycle
Years
Different response of different solar parameters
Variability
Sunspots
Radio Waves
UV
several %
up to 70%
Open Solar Flux
Cosmic Rays
10%
Total Solar
Irradiance
0,1%
Magnetic Field
Gray et al. 2010
Synchronicity between solar activity and water level of
Lake Victoria (East Africa)
Stager et al. 2007
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37575
Temperature response to
11 year solar cycle
Sunspots
Temperature
(deducted:: El Nino & volcanoes)
Scafetta 2009
What‘s next for
Bond cycle?
Weak Solar Cycle 24
23
4
24?
25?
5
6
Archibald 2010
23rd
24th
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
Gleissberg and Suess/de Vries Cycles
Years
210 Year Suess/de Vries Cycle
last Suess/de Vries
Minimum
Next Suess/de
Vries Minimum
Abdussamatov 2010
Prognosis of solar activity based on main solar cycles
Clilverd et al. 2006
The traditionale IPCC view, Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010):
Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect
The traditional IPCC view, Jones et al. (2012):
Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect
Our Schematic
Temperature
Prognosis
(„Die kalte Sonne“)
Thank You