Transcript lok sabha 2014 elections predictions

LOK SABHA 2014 ELECTIONS
PREDICTIONS
ANDHRA PRADESH
ARUNACHAL PRADESH
ASSAM
BIHAR
CHTTISGARGH
DELHI
GOA
GUJARAT
HARYANA
HIMACHAL PRADESH
J&K
JHARKHAND
KARNATAKA
KERALA
MADHYA PRADESH
MAHARASHTRA
MANIPUR
MEGHALAYA
MIZORAM
NAGALAND
ODISHA
PUNJAB
RAJASTHAN
SIKKIM
TAMIL NADU
TRIPURA
UTTARAKHAND
UTTAR PRADESH
WEST BENGAL
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR
CHANDIGARH
DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI
DAMAN & DIU
LAKSHADWEEP
PUDUCHERRY
NOMINATED MEMBERS
PROJECTED SEATS FOR THE CONGRESS
UPA ALLIES
NCP, 3
OTHERS, 7
NCP, 2
PROJECTED SEATS FOR THE BJP
HIMACHAL PRADESH, 2
ANDHRA PRADESH, 1
ARUNACHAL PRADESH,
0
HARYANA, 3
ASSAM, 5
BIHAR, 16
GUJARAT, 22
CHTTISGARGH, 10
DELHI, 5
GOA, 2
NAGALAND, 0
MANIPUR, 0
ODISHA, 0
J&K, 2
MEGHALAYA, 0
PUNJAB, 5
JHARKHAND, 8
MIZORAM, 0
MAHARASHTRA, 18
KARNATAKA, 11
KERALA, 0
MADHYA PRADESH, 25
CHANDIGARH, 0
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR, 1
DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI, 1
DAMAN & DIU, 1
LAKSHADWEEP, 0
PUDUCHERRY, 0
WEST BENGAL, 0
RAJASTHAN, 19
UTTAR PRADESH, 35
SIKKIM, 0
TAMIL NADU, 0
TRIPURA, 0
UTTARAKHAND, 3
BJP ALLIES
OTHERS, 5
AGP, 3
SHIV SENA, 16
SAD, 6
OTHER PARTIES
SP, 21
BSP, 18
OTHERS+ INDs, 52
TDP, 5
LEFT FRONT, 20
RJD, 5
TRS, 13
TMC, 25
YSRC, 19
JD(U), 15
AIADMK, 28
DMK, 8
BJD, 18
Assumptions:
1.Narendra Modi, as chairman of the national election and
management committee, will lead the BJP campaign and be its likely
Prime Ministerial candidate but this will not be stated explicitly till
later this year.
2.Rahul Gandhi will not be declared the UPA’s Prime Ministerial
candidate though he will be the face of the campaign.
The BJP (195) + allies (30) + leaning BJP (49) are projected to win 274
seats. That’s a slim majority – but remember it’s without the JD(U),
the BJD and other fence-sitters.
The Congress (101) + allies (12) + leaning Congress (36) are projected
to win 149 seats.
The regional Third Front, despite the hype, is projected to muster only
122 seats with huge inbuilt ideological divisions: TMC (25) and the Left
Front (20) in West Bengal (and Kerala); and BSP (18) and SP(21) in
Uttar Pradesh.
Some important observations:
1.Modi’s campaign will have a major impact in the Hindi heartland – UP, Bihar,
Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Himachal. In Uttar Pradesh, the
combined effect of Rajnath Singh and Modi could take the BJP from 10 seats to
around two-thirds (35 seats) of its 1998 tally of 52 seats.
2.In Bihar, despite the likely triangular contest between the BJP, JD(U) and the
Congress-RJD, the BJP could increase its tally from 12 seats (2009) to 16. Modi’s EBC
(Extremely Backward Caste) status will result in a powerful coalition with the BJP’s
traditional upper caste votes.
3.In Maharashtra, Gujarat and the Telengana region of Andhra, Modi’s impact could
be decisive. The TRS is a likely NDA ally if a separate Telengana state is incorporated in
the BJP’s election manifesto.
4.In Karnataka, Yeddyurappa’s return, or in a pre-poll alliance with the BJP – based on
Modi’s equation with him – could turn the tide in the southern state.
• 5.The average voteshare of the BJP in the last four
general elections (1998-2009) was 22.58%. In 1998, it
won 182 seats with 25.59% voteshare.
• In 1999, it again won 182 seats with 23.75% voteshare.
Allies make a difference so the 195 seats projected in
this analysis could be possible in 2014 with a voteshare
of around 26%. That’s a swing of 3.5% over the BJP’s
average voteshare of 22.58% in 1998-2009 – or a swing
of 7% over its voteshare of 18.80% in 2009.
• This is where the Modi and anti-incumbency factors
intersect.
• Polarisation? Of course it will occur. But polarisation is
hardly new in Indian electoral politics. The Congress and
the Samajwadi Party have polarised minorities for
decades. The BSP has polarised Dalits for nearly as long.
Regional parties have polarised votes on parochial
grounds since the 1960s.
•
Will polarising the majority community amount to
communalising the election? Not if it’s based strictly on
issues: governance, corruption, inflation, economic
policy, security. Communalism and secularism in India
anyway need to be redefined as I have argued in The
ayatollahs of secularism.
•
As the 2014 Lok Sabha poll campaign gathers pace
alongside the state assembly campaigns, be prepared for
a gamechanging election – certainly one that is likely to
be the most historical since 1977.
Information courtesy :
• The Economic Times (http://goo.gl/IytMn)
Thank you