Transcript AFOA 2013 U.S. Tallow and Grease - AFOA American Fats and Oils

Presented by
Hurley Brokerage
1
BLEACHABLE CHICAGO
Jacobsen
.600
JUNE '11
MAY '12
0.489
.500
JULY '08
JUNE '13
JAN '12
0.442
.400
SEPT '1
0.406
JULY '07
0.326
AUG '09
NOV '12
.300
DEC '07
0.277
OCT '97
0.212
DEC '94
APRIL '05
.200
OCT '09
AUG '01
FEB '96
JULY '03
0.161
APRIL '06
DEC '08
.100
MAR '99
.000
2
World 5-oils Industrial/Other Use (Soy, Cotton, Sun and Rapeseed Oil plus Palm Oil)
40,000
35,000
30,000
1000 tonnes
25,000
y = 2162.6x + 1067.8
R2 = 0.982
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
3
China Vegoil Imports
9,925
10,000
9,064
8,226
7,872
8,378
8,059
7,673
8,000
6,123
5,536
6,000
5,494
4,777
1000's MT
4,000
2,000
0
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08 2008/09
Crop Year
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Est.
4
India Vegoil Imports
12,000
10,650
9,840
10,000
8,355
8,658
8,274
8,000
1000' MT
6,000
5,323
5,161
5,118
4,270
4,850
4,191
4,000
2,000
0
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08 2008/09
Crop Year
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Est.
5
World Five Veg-Oil Supply and Usage
Soybean, Rapeseed, Sunflower Seed, Cottonseed and Palm Oils in 1000 metric tonnes USDA data
Updated Oct-10
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
8859
103674
40006
152,539
10857
106905
42520
160,282
10961
112740
45951
169,652
10235
117439
49786
177,460
11208
124212
50606
186,026
11746
130930
52745
195,421
12293
139325
56451
208,069
15359
142000
59187
216,546
17225
147882
60968
226,075
42783
84239
15629
44324
86331
18666
48623
89384
21410
50999
92465
22788
51953
96693
25634
54543
100055
28530
58107
103799
30804
60577
108200
30544
62900
111864
32140
142,651
149,321
159,417
166,252
174,280
183,128
192,710
199,321
206,904
Ending Stocks
9888
10961
10235
11208
11746
12293
15359
17225
19171
Stocks / Use
6.9%
7.3%
6.4%
6.7%
6.7%
6.7%
8.0%
8.6%
9.3%
Exports
Food Use
Other/Ind Disappearance
Total Disappearance
6
World Five Vegoil Stocks/Use
(Soy, Sun, Cotton, Palm, and Rapeoil)
9.8%
9.3%
8.8%
Stocks/Use
8.3%
7.8%
7.3%
6.8%
6.3%
5.8%
5.3%
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Crop Year
7
US Soybean Oil Supply and Demand
Million Pounds
2010/11 2011/12
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,633
Carryin
3,406
Production
18,873
Imports
159
Total Supply 22,438
Domestic Use 16,826
Biodiesel
2,737
Non-Biodiesel 14,089
Exports
3,233
Total Use
20,059
Carryout
2,379
Decatur (Cts/Lb) 53.20
1,713
2,379
19,620
149
22,148
18,193
4,870
13,323
1,464
19,657
2,491
51.90
2012/13
USDA Informa
1,680 1,674
2,540 2,491
19,840 19,668
250
200
22,630 22,359
18,550 18,600
4,600 4,650
13,950 13,950
2,150 2,125
20,700 20,725
1,930 1,634
47.25 47.10
2013/14
USDA Informa
1,655 1,685
1,930 1,634
19,035 19,351
250
200
21,215 21,185
18,550 18,400
5,700 5,300
12,850 13,100
1,050 1,000
19,600 19,400
1,615 1,785
43-47 43.50
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Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
Oct-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Apr-03
Oct-02
Million Pounds
3,750
US Soybean Oil Stocks
3,500
3,250
3,000
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
July 2013
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
9
50
Soybean Oil Futures Trading Range Forecast
48
Cents/Pound
46
44
42
Sep 13 Closes
40
38
36
Oct 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Mar 14
May 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
CBT Soybean Oil Futures Contract
10
1/1/2003
4/1/2003
7/1/2003
10/1/2003
1/1/2004
4/1/2004
7/1/2004
10/1/2004
1/1/2005
4/1/2005
7/1/2005
10/1/2005
1/1/2006
4/1/2006
7/1/2006
10/1/2006
1/1/2007
4/1/2007
7/1/2007
10/1/2007
1/1/2008
4/1/2008
7/1/2008
10/1/2008
1/1/2009
4/1/2009
7/1/2009
10/1/2009
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
10/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
10/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
cts/lb
Chicago Renderer BFT vs. Decatur Cash SBO 2003 - 2013
70
60
50
40
30
BFT
SB
O
20
10
0
11
5/1/2013
1/1/2013
9/1/2012
5/1/2012
1/1/2012
9/1/2011
5/1/2011
1/1/2011
9/1/2010
5/1/2010
1/1/2010
9/1/2009
5/1/2009
1/1/2009
9/1/2008
5/1/2008
1/1/2008
9/1/2007
5/1/2007
1/1/2007
9/1/2006
5/1/2006
1/1/2006
9/1/2005
5/1/2005
1/1/2005
9/1/2004
5/1/2004
1/1/2004
9/1/2003
5/1/2003
1/1/2003
BFT % of Cash SBO Decatur 2003 - 2013
120%
100%
80%
60%
BFT/SBO
40%
20%
0%
12
Relative Price to CBOT SBO
1997-2010
2011-2013
100%
88%
90%
80%
84%
73%
70%
79%
76%
65%
60%
63%
56%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
PT Chicago
CWG IA
YG IL
PF NC
• Relative price of fats to SBO shifted up 14-20 points
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Nearby SBO
PBFT
CWG
Yellow
CHGO 88% IOWA 84% Illinois 76%
46
40.48
38.64
34.96
44
38.72
36.96
33.44
42
36.96
35.28
31.92
40
35.2
33.6
30.4
38
33.44
31.92
28.88
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Bio Fuels
Oleo Chemicals
Exports
Feed
15
Biodiesel Production (EPA)
200
180
160
Mil Gals.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2011
•
•
Jun
2012
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2013
1,052 million gallons have been produced through August or 82% of the mandate
At the current pace 1.6 billion gallons would be produced in 2013
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US Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Usage
1,700
1,600
1,500
Production
1,400
Domestic Usage
1,300
Renewable Fuel Standard
Million Gallons
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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• Y-T-D June 2013
Biodiesel Feedstocks 2012 (mil. Lbs.)
Fats,
1,910
Biodiesel Feedstocks 2013 YTD (mil. Lbs.)
Fats, 1,140
Veg Oils, 2,367
Veg Oils
5,381
Biodiesel Feedstocks 2012 (%)
Fats
26%
Biodiesel Feedstocks 2013 (%)
Fats
33%
Veg Oils
74%
Veg Oils
67%
18
• Y-T-D June 2013
2012 Veg. Oil Feedstocks in Biodiesel (mil. Lbs.)
2013 Veg. Oil Feedstocks in Biodiesel YTD (mil. Lbs.)
Canola Oil, 175
Canola Oil, 787
Inedible Corn
Oil, 452
Inedible Corn
Oil, 571
Soybean Oil,
4023
Soybean Oil,
2299
2012 Veg. Oil Feedstocks in Biodiesel (%)
2013 Veg. Oil Feedstocks in Biodiesel YTD (%)
Canola Oil
6%
Canola Oil
15%
Inedible Corn
Oil
15%
Inedible Corn
Oil
10%
Soybean Oil
75%
Soybean Oil
79%
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Ethanol Corn Oil Production 2010 - 2013
7,000,000
6,500,000
6,000,000
avg lbs/day by week
5,500,000
5,000,000
2010
4,500,000
2011
4,000,000
2012
2013
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
20
Inedible Corn Oil Production
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
1,945
2,000
1,523
1,800
Million Pounds
1,600
1,400
1,200
958
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
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Bio Feedstock
Soybean Oil
Canola Oil
Inedible Corn Oil
Other Recycle Oil
Tallow
Choice White Grease
Yellow Grease
Poultry Fat
Other Fats
Total
Million Pounds
2012
2013F
2014F
4,800
4,870
5,500
787
458
480
571
859
1,300
287
250
250
382
496
500
409
480
500
613
810
900
170
117
118
49
30
30
8,068
8,370
9,578
22
Demand is driven by economy
Currently about even vs. 2012
“SHOULD” stay even in 2014
Inventory “cushion” an old-school memory
23
US Total Fat Exports 2010 - 2012 & YTD 2013
200000
180000
160000
140000
MT/month
120000
2010
100000
2011
80000
2012
2013
60000
40000
20000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
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Corn
300% Corn
350% Corn
3.75
4.00
4.25
20.08
21.43
22.77
23.44
25.00
26.56
4.50
24.11
28.12
4.75
5.00
25.45
26.79
29.68
31.25
5.25
5.50
5.75
28.13
29.46
30.80
32.81
34.38
35.94
6.00
32.14
37.50
25
Packer Tallow Chicago
Relative Price to SBO
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
26
Packer Tallow Chicago
1350
60
47.8¢
'000 Tons
1300
1250
46.2¢
40.6¢
23.1¢
50
37.6¢
30.1¢
40
30
1200
20
1150
10
1100
0
08/09
09/10
10/11
Production
11/12
12/13f 13/14f
Cents / Pound
13/14 production is forecasted to decline about 4%
13/14 price down 3 cents with lower SBO prices.
27
Choice White Grease Iowa
Relative Price to SBO
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
28
'000 Tons
Choice White Grease Iowa
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
44.6¢
21.1¢
43.2¢
39.9¢
50
35.5¢
27.2¢
40
30
20
10
0
08/09
09/10
10/11
Production
11/12
12/13f
13/14f
Cents / Pound
13/14 production projected up 2.5%
13/14 price down 4 cents/pound
29
Yellow Grease Illinois
Million Pounds
1800
41.6¢
1600
1400
1200
50
38.8¢
36.1¢ 31.9¢
24.2¢
40
30
19.3¢
20
1000
800
10
600
0
08/09
09/10
10/11
Production
11/12
12/13f
13/14f
Cents / Pound
13/14 production will be about even.
13/14 price down more than 4 cents.
30
Bio Fuels consumption expected to increase.
Oleo Chemical demand should remain steady.
Exports could make a mild comeback.
Fats relative value to soy expected to remain at
historic ratios.
31
Bumper Corn & Bean Crop
Bean Oil Values Est. 10% lower vs.
2012/2013
World Veg Oil Stocks Ample
32
BFT should trade + or – 12% 37 Chicago
Exports could mount a comeback
Lower prices if Bio Fuels numbers don’t pan out
33
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