Transcript demographic transition

Case Study: Demographic
Transitions in Iran
Bar Ilan Univ. 08.05.2012
What’s demographic transition?
Reminder
Demographic transition process refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates as a country develops from
a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic
system
The Three Stages of Population
Transition
• First Stage: Total population growth rate is low
but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high
death rates
• Second Stage: Total population growth rate rises
as death rates fall due to improvements in health
care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high
• Third Stage: Total population is high, but it is
balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate.
Birth control is widely available and there is a
desire for smaller families.
Demographic Transition
0.25
0.2
second stage
first stage
0.15
third stage
0.1
0.05
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
mortality rates(%)
9
10
birth rates(%)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
net population growth(%)
Population Growth
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
population (t0=100)
9
10
11
12
13
Poly. (population (t0=100))
14
15
16
17
18
What’s special about Iran
• While Iran's population grew at a rate of more than 3% per year
between 1956 and 1986, the growth rate began to decline in the
late 1980s and early 1990s after the government initiated a major
population control program. By 2007 the growth rate had declined
to 0.7 percent per year, with a birth rate of 17 per 1,000 persons
and a death rate of 6 per 1,000.
•
Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planning
programs in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in total
fertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000.
• Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFR
of 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use among
married women.
• Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is ruled under the law of
Islam and has a theocratic constitution.
Iran –Demographic Facts
Iran
World
Israel
Afganistan
Population, Total (2011 est.)
77,891,220
-
7,848,800
29,835,390
Population Growth
1.2%
1.1%
1.9%
2.38
Birth Rate per 1,000 people
18.55
19.3
21.4
37.83
Death Rate per 1,000 people
5.94
8.3
5.2
17.39
Total Fertility Rate
1.88
2.52
2.67
5.64
Pre-revolutionary Era1900-1979
•
•
•
year
Population Size in millions
Annual Growth Rate
(%)
1900
1926
1941
1956
1966
1976
1979
10
11-12
14-15
19-20
25-26
34
37
>0.3
0.3-0.8
1.3-1.8
1.8-2.2
2.5-2.9
2.7-3.1
3.3
Prevalence of a high crude birth rate of about 45-50 per thousand and, a total
fertility rate above 7-8 children per woman
Moderate mortality decline during the second quarter of the century, while
accelerated during 1956-66.
Demographic Awareness- An informal family planning program in early 1960’s
•
Khomeini Era 1979-1980 and Iran-Iraq
War 1980-1988
In the early years after the revolution there were no official population
policies in the government’s agenda. New leaders viewed any
population program as a Western tool to dominate the ‘‘Third World’’
countries and reduce the number of Muslims.
During the eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988), the country was
aiming for an ‘‘Army of 20 million.’’ Large families were a core
revolutionary value; necessary to raise soldiers to defend the country.
In addition to higher birth rates:
 An influx of refugee immigrants from neighboring countries
contributed to a rapid rise in the population growth rate
 Improved primary health care resulted in sharp declines in
infant and maternal mortality rates between 1981 and 1986.
The National Five Year Socioeconomic
Development Plans: 1989-1994 and 1994-1999
Motivation: From 1976-1986, Iran's population
increased at an average annual rate of 3.4%, and
was 49.4 million by the end of the 10-year
period.2 As a result, the government faced great
demands for food, health care, education and
employment.
The National Five Year Socioeconomic
Development Plans: 1989-1994 and 1994-1999
In 1989, the government along with the clergy
introduced a family planning program with three
major goals:
• encouraging women to space their
pregnancies by 3-4 years,
• discouraging pregnancy among women
younger than 18 and older than 35,
• limiting family size to three children
The National Five Year Socioeconomic
Development Plans: 1989-1994 and 1994-1999
To accomplish these objectives, the government developed the following
strategies:
 Organizing educational programs on population issues for the general
public
 Increasing married couples access to free contraceptives
 Developing the model of service delivery in urban and rural areas.
 Implementation of disincentives policies for families with more than three
children: For example banning public benefits, such as paid maternity leave and
social welfare subsidies to low-income women, for the birth of any child after the
third.
 Government officials and religious leaders* have promoted family
planning and smaller families
 Voluntary sterilization for Males an d Females (Vasectomy and Tubectomy)
* Despite the strong opposition to abortion, clerics have endorsed the government's family
planning program.
Other Causes for the Decrease in the
Population Growth Rate
• Increased educational opportunities for women: From 1976-1986, the
female literacy rate almost doubled in both rural and urban areas.
• Increased job opportunities for women: Parents are expressing greater
comfort with having their daughters work (in gender-segregated
environments), and the government is promoting greater social
participation for women
• Constant decline in Infant Mortality: Contraception probably could not
have succeeded if there had not been a large decline in infant mortality.
Between 1976 and 1991, infant mortality decreased from a rate of 112
infant deaths per 1000 live births to a rate of 63.2, a decline of almost
50%.
• Economic Factors: Iran's continued dependency on oil revenues as the
source of government funds, devaluations of the Iranian currency, removal
of a number of subsidies on imported goods have all placed significant
economic pressures on the Iranian family and have reduced their
purchasing power.
In years to come…
Sources

Fertility, Contraceptive Use and Family Planning Program Activity in the Islamic Republic of Iran, by
Akbar Aghajanian (1999)

Case study: fertility decline in Iran, by Farnaz Vahidnia (2007)

Prospects for Development and Population Growth in Iran, by Samuel S. Lieberman (1979)

The Fertility Transition in Iran, by Marie Ladier-Louladi (1997)

US Census http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php

UN Data Base http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm and http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

World Bank http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4
•
End