Foresight

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Transcript Foresight

National Research University – Higher School of Economics
Institute of Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
Foresight of shipbuilding until 2030
(science and technology forecast)
Oleg Karasev
[email protected]
Natalia Velikanova
[email protected]
Anastasia Edelkina
[email protected]
Last years in Russia there is a rapid development
of forecast and Foresight studies
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation:
Russian S&T foresight (three cycles)
Methodologies, results, and expert panels need
to be coordinated
Priority areas and critical
technologies 2006
Priority areas and critical
technologies 2011
Socio-economic development forecast (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation),
industry-specific strategies
Regional foresight studies/Clusters
Roadmaps
Development institutes: RVC, Rusnano, Skolkovo
Technological platforms
Innovation-based development
programmes for state-owned companies
A network of foresight
centres
Industrial
foresight
studies: aircraft
construction,
shipbuilding
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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The need for Foresight is declared by official documents
Presidential Decree of 7 May, 2012
#596 “On long-term national
economic policy”
Development of technology foresight system:
“Approve… long-term forecast of socio-economic
development in the Russian Federation until 2030 to
ensure meeting relevant targets”
Presidential Address to the Federal
Assembly of 12 December, 2012
“Russian S&T Foresight study covering the period until
2030 is nearing the end. Specific areas have been
identified to promote development of traditional sectors,
and to achieve breakthroughs on high technology
markets…”
Meeting of the Presidium of the
Presidential Council for Economic
Modernisation and Innovative
Development of 17 May, 2013
Establishment of the Inter-Departmental Commission on
Technology Foresight, comprising representatives of
relevant ministries and agencies, major companies and
leading expert organisations
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Foresight
Role of Foresight in rationale of state programs provisions
• General description of the implementation of the national programme, including
major problems encountered and a forecast of future developments
• Priorities for national policy, goals, objectives, and progress indicators, description
of major expected end results, timeframes and implementation stages.
• Data on measurements and indicators
• General description of major measures to be taken under the programme, and
departmental targeted programmes.
• A forecast of integrated indicators for government targets
• General description of major measures implemented by Russian regions
• Data on participation of state-owned corporations, joint-stock companies with public
participation, public, research, and other organisations, and government nonbudgetary foundations in implementation of the programme
• Justification for individual sub-programmes, and for inclusion federal targeted
programmes currently being implemented into the national programme
• Estimates of required funding
• Estimates of additional resource allocations’ effect on the results of the national
programme (sub-programmes)
• Risk analysis
• Methodology for evaluation of the national programme
* In accordance with Methodological guidance on development and implementation of national programmes in the
Russian Federation, approved by the RF Ministry for Economic Development Order #817 of 26 December, 2012
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The Foresight is based on a study of best international practices
Major international forecasts and foresight studies
National-level technology foresight studies
Countries: EU, UK, China, Korea, USA, Finland, Ireland, Vietnam, Turkey,
India, etc.
• European Commission Research Programmes (FP6,
FP7, Horizon 2020)
• Chinese National Technology Foresight
• Korea 2030
• Japanese Technology Foresight
• French Technology Foresight
• Global Technological Revolution 2020 (USA)
• Russian S&T Foresight Study 2030
• RF Critical Technologies
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• Federal Targeted Programme “Development of civilian
marine technology in 2009-2016”
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• Development strategy for the shipbuilding industry until
2020 and for the subsequent period
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Official programmes and forecasts for the
Russian shipbuilding industry
• National RF Programme “Development of shipbuilding in
2013-2030”
• The RF Transport Strategy until 2030. Russian Energy
Strategy until 2030
• Passport of the OSK, Inc. Innovation-Based Development
Programme.
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UK Marine Industries Roadmap & Capability Study
Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems
Industry Transformation Report: Shipbuilding Industry
Factors Affecting the Structure of the World Shipbuilding Industry
Marine Industries Global Market Analysis
Study on Competitiveness of the European Shipbuilding Industry
Shipbuilding in Europe
Global Shipbuilding Competition: Trends and Challenges for Europe
Green Growth Opportunities in the EU Shipbuilding Sector
Community of European Shipyards Associations (CESA). Annual report
2010-2011
LeaderShip 2015
The Shipbuilding Industry in China
Competition in the Shipbuilding Industry
Study of the Vietnamese Shipbuilding/Maritime Sector
The Shipbuilding Industry in Vietnam
Report on Indian Maritime Industry
The Shipbuilding Industry in Turkey
Sea Change. A Marine Knowledge, Research & Innovation Strategy for
Ireland
Climate change Implications for Ireland’s Marine Environment and
Resources
Maritime Transport and the Climate Change Challenge
Climate Change and the Maritime Industry
Shipping and Climate Change: Scope for Unilateral Action
Foresight of the South Baltic Maritime Labour Market 2017
More than 90 sources
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Grand Challenges affecting the shipbuilding industry
Energy
Transport
• Depleted reserves of nonrenewable energy resources
• Increased intensity and volume of
cargo shipment and passenger
traffic
• Increased energy consumption
outpacing its production
• Increased demand for special
cargos shipment
• Development and utilisation of
alternative energy sources
(including wind, solar, geothermal,
tide, bioenergetics, etc.)
• Terrorist threats to transport
Technological
• New standards and requirements
to manufacturing and exploitation
of vehicles and vessels, etc.
Demographic
• Depreciation of capital assets
• Increased research intensity of
production
• Ageing population
• Shortage of skilled labour
• Increasingly complex design
solutions
• Global population growth
• Increased demand for automated
production processes, etc.
• Growing middle class, etc.
• Increased mobility of population
Food
• Shortage of food and drinking
water
• Decreased food safety
• Threat of certain species’
extinction, etc.
Environmental
• Global climate change (including
warming, melting of Arctic glaciers,
etc.)
• Environmental pollution
• Reduced biodiversity
• Anthropogenic disasters
• The world’s oceans turning into an
area of industrial interests, etc.
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The shipbuilding industry development
as a response to Grand Challenges
Energy
• Depleted reserves of non-renewable
energy resources
• Increased energy consumption
outpacing its production
• Development and utilisation of
alternative energy sources (including
wind, solar, geothermal, tide,
bioenergetics, etc.).
• Development of Russian
continental shelf
• Development of new
types of power plants
generating demand for
new vessel types
• Development of wind-,
bio-, etc. power
generation technologies
Transport
• Increased intensity and volume of
cargo shipping and passenger traffic
• Increased demand for special cargos
shipment
• Terrorist threats to transport
• New standards and requirements to
manufacturing and exploitation of
vehicles and vessels, etc..
• Development of
navigation along the
Northern Sea Route
• Increasing the scale and
changing the structure of
shipping services
• Upgrading internal and
mixed (river-sea) water
transport
Food
• Shortage of food and drinking water
• Decreased food safety
• Threat of certain species’ extinction,
etc.
• Upgrading fishing fleet
• Development of new ship
types to harvest algae
and other marine
products
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The future of shipbuilding is considered
within the context of socio-economic system as a whole
Examples
«Global Scenarios of Shipping in 2030» (Finland)
Analysis of scenario factors:
• economic development and trade
• climate change and sustainable development
• geopolitics and world leadership
• limited supply of resources
• control over energy resources
3 development scenarios:
1. “Rough Seas”
2. “Yellow River”
3. “Open Oceans”
«Industry Transformation Report:
Shipbuilding
Industry»
(ЕU)
6 сценариев
развития:
«Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems» (Ireland)
Analysis of key factors affecting development of marine
ecosystems:
• Hydrography
• Fisheries and aquaculture
• Water-based tourism and recreation
• Sea ports and navigation
• Oil and gas production
• Offshore power generation and construction
• Coastal geomorphology
• Defence
4 development strategies :
1. “World Markets”
2. “Fortress Britain”
3. “Local Stewardship”
4. “Global Commons)”
«Emissions from international shipping over
the last 50 years and future scenarios until 2050» (EU)
3 development scenarios :
1. Clean scenario
• Low sulphur oxide content in emissions
• Significantly reduced nitrogen oxide emissions
2. Moderate scenario
• Relatively low sulphur oxide content.
• Moderately reduced nitrogen oxide emissions
3. No change scenario
• Sufficiently high sulphur oxide content in emissions
• Nitrogen oxide emissions are reduced to meet requirements
of the International Maritime Organisation
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The success factors of the shipbuilding market key players
South Korea
Strengths
 qualified workforce
 economies of scale
 development of extractive
industries
 high confidence of customers
 advanced shipbuilding technology
 high labor productivity
 short production cycle
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Opportunities
 low prices for raw materials
 depreciation of the Korean currency
Weaknesses
inland waterways
underdeveloped financial market
increase in labor costs
low business diversification
lack of basic technologies in
cruise ships and offshore
installations
Threats
 growth of China's economy
 Instability of the global
shipbuilding market
 low demand for the products of
the shipbuilding industry
 overcapacity
Япония
Japan
Strengths
 high level of innovation
 stable relations between shipyards
and manufacturers of marine
equipment
 stable employment environment
 specialization in niche markets
Opportunities
 continuous innovation
 environmentally safe development
of the shipbuilding industry
 development of transport policy
 increase the requirements for
standards in the transportation
Weaknesses
 high production costs
 diversified structure of shipbuilding
operation, inefficiency on the
operation of shipyards
 problems in knowledge protection
 lack of qualified workforce
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Threats
strengthening of maritime clusters
loss of market share
ageing workforce
collapse of world prices
China
Strengths
 low labor costs
 large supply of steel
 powerful government support
Opportunities
 high demand for
transportation of iron ore,
coal, grain, construction
materials and other bulk
Weaknesses
 insufficient development of
design and technology
 lack of production of key
components within the
country
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Threats
lack of qualified workforce
fluctuation in exchange rates
overcapacity
low productivity
European Union
Strengths
 qualified workforce
 high level of technology in
shipbuilding
 government support and
protectionism
Weaknesses
 high production costs
 large number of domestic
orders
Opportunities
 development of competitive
advantages
Threats
 loss of market share
 collapse of world prices
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National technology priorities
(based on the materials of world Foresights)
Accent on production
technologies
Accent on power
generation and energy
saving, engines and
mechanisms
Accent on ship design
Increased attention to
environment
Russia
Korea
Japan
China
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Publication activity in shipbuilding sector
Publication indexed
by Web of Science,
categories «Engineering,
Marine» and «Engineering
Ocean»
USA
China
Japan
UK
South Korea
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Changes in Russian shipbuilding production
Government defence
orders
Military technology
cooperation
Civilian products for
domestic market
Export of civilian products
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Shipbuilding market development in Russia: negative trends
Share of Russian-registered merchant ships’ deadweight in the
global fleet (%)
Russian-registered merchant ships’ deadweight
dynamics (thousand deadweight tons)
Source: UNCTADstat.
Total fleet
All-purpose dry cargo ships
Tankers
Container ships
Bulkers
Other
Source: UNCTADstat.
Growth of Russian-registered merchant ships’
deadweight (% of the previous year)
Potential to increase efficiency must be
found, and long-term development
priorities set
Dynamics of the Russian merchant fleet (number of ships)
Source: UNCTADstat.
Source: Transport and communications in Russia // Rosstat 2012 (in Russian)
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The reserves for increasing the Russian shipbuilding efficiency
Strengths
• Low shipping costs of internal water transport.
• Partially preserved from the USSR period technological
potential.
• National industry development programmes.
• Availability of technologies to develop continental shelf
resources
The main potential for market development is connected
with design and manufacturing of ships and maritime
equipment for operation in the Arctic region
Opportunities
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Growth of shipping by water transport.
Prolonged navigation in autumn and spring.
Solving low transport accessibility problems existing in certain
Russian regions with the help of high-speed passenger fleet.
Emergence of new market segments for shipbuilding products.
Development of international transport corridors.
Development of recreational areas in coastal cities.
Development of tourism, increased demand for river cruises.
Advancement of shelf deposits development technologies.
Development of high-speed water transport.
Growth of private investments in marine research and
development of marine biotechnologies.
Development of new resource-saving technologies, and
technologies for processing water-based bio-resources.
Development of new business areas and production objects.
National and international targeted programmes and strategies to
promote the industry development (including marine
biotechnologies).
Projects to improve production and processing of marine bioresources.
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding
• Insufficiently advanced civil shipbuilding technologies
• Low production efficiency, productivity, and products’
competitiveness
• Slow upgrading of capital assets.
• Shortage of skilled personnel
• Low profitability of the Arctic deposits.
• Work conditions can’t compete with other industries
• Deteriorated infrastructure of internal waterways
• Inability to meet current international requirements to certain
environment-related ships’ characteristics
• High shipbuilding costs, lack of motivation for investors.
• Long periods of time required for ship repair and maintenance.
• Lack of domestic technological basis, insufficiently developed
component base, low quality of Russian construction materials
and expendables.
• High prototyping costs in the course of ship design.
• Insufficient production capacities to build ships with dead
weight in excess of 70-80 thousand tons (total displacement in
excess of 100 thousand tons).
• Insufficient financial and tax incentives for shipbuilding
companies.
Threats
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Expected financial crises and economic instability
Sharp decrease of defence R&D in recent years
Obsolete standards and rules for ship design
Strengthening of the competitors’ market positions
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Key indicators of shipbuilding industry development
(innovative scenario)
Construction of large offshore
platforms (% of the demand)
Output (billion roubles)
Active construction of
offshore platforms
equipped with cutting-edge
processing and drilling
technologies
By 2030 the industry’s
output may reach 700
billion roubles
Global market share (%)
Construction of complex
civilian vessels (% of the
demand)
By 2030 Russia can
control 3-5% of the
global civilian
shipbuilding products
market
Significant growth of
production of advanced
civilian seagoing vessels
Share of total national exports
shipped by national transport
(for seagoing ships)
Construction of internal waterways
transport (% of the demand)
50% of total national
exports shipped by national
transport
Anticipatory development
of internal waterways
transport
2012
2015
2020
2030
Pessimistic
2012
2015
Optimistic
2020
2030
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Priorities of Russian shipbuilding sector
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Level of R&D (expert assessment)
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Passenger ships
Non ice-class tankers
Non ice-class gas carriers
Chemical carriers
Non ice-class container ships
Refrigerated vessels
Non ice-class bulk carriers
Dry cargo sea roll-on vessels
Ice class combination carriers
Non ice-class combination
carriers
• Freight-passenger ship
• Special vessels
• Ice-class container ships
• Universal ice-class dry
cargo ships
• Ice class bulk carriers
• River sealers
• Floating systems of
extraction, storage and rollout of hydrocarbon
• Dry cargo ships
of river and
mixed (river-sea)
navigation
• River and mixed (river-sea) navigation
tankers
• Dredgers, haulers
• Oil skimmers
• Nuclear-power
icebreakers
• Diesel icebreakers
• Tugs
• Ships and technical facilities of
special purpose
• Ice class tankers
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• Hydroskimmers
• Research vessels
• Universal non ice-class dry
cargo ships
• Floating drilling rigs and jack-up
platforms and ships
• Sealing vessel
• Crane-erecting vessels
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• Floating LNG
terminal
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• Hydrofoil
• Ice class gas carriers
• Service ship for
underwater
engineering work
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Level of manufacturing (expert assessment)
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Recommendations on industrial policy development
Government decision-making
• Environmental policies
• Financial regulation, government guaranties
• Legal regulation (including protection of
intellectual property)
• Economic regulation (foreign trade, etc.)
• Provision of government services
• Harmonising policies
Network cooperation
• Innovation clusters
• Technological platforms
• Promoting cooperation between the industry’s
companies
• Division of risks between the market participants
• Development of communication rules
• Promoting trans-border cooperation
• Joint utilisation of specialised maritime
infrastructure
Development of the real sector of the economy
• Businesses’ orientation towards making efficient technological
decisions
• Establishing new enterprises
• Recommendations on investment projects (including infrastructure)
• Retaining and developing human capital
• Attracting direct investments in maritime R&D
• Measuring technological level, benchmarking
• Recommendations on making use of competitive advantages
• Identifying new market niches
• Recommendations on technological upgrading programmes
• Recommendations on promoting foreign economic activities and
establishing joint ventures
Future R&D
• Lists of high-priority (critical) technologies
• Linking strategic R&D programmes with technological
upgrading and modernisation programmes, and general
economic objectives
• Organising specialised academic events
• Development of joint R&D programmes and strategies
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Thank you for your attention!
Oleg Karasev, Natalia Velikanova, Anastasia Edelkina
National Research University - Higher School of Economics
Institute of Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
Russian Federation 101000, Moscow, Myasnitskaya St.,9-11
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]