Transcript Conflict and the Environment - Center for International Studies

Water Conflict:
Global Issues and
Cooperative Opportunities
Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD
2010 Summer Teacher Institute
University of Chicago
29 June 2010
Structure of Presentation
 CONF 695 Water and Conflict
 Conflict Analysis and Resolution
 Environmental Conflict
 Water Conflict
 Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
 Cases
 Conclusion
CONF 695: Water and Conflict
 Integrate conflict theory, water concepts, and case
literature
 Case study approach to highlight social and
environmental challenges and perspectives at different
levels
 Critical thinking and internal debate
 Guest speakers from the field
 Student presentations – on cases, on research, on
policy proposals
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Principles
 Conflict studies = analysis and resolution
 Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re,
development studies, cultural studies
 Promotes critical thinking about social relationships,
needs, aspirations and power between individuals and
groups
 Conflict is not necessarily bad (innovation)
 Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict
 Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Integrative Practice
PEACEMAKING
PREVENTIVE
ACTION
PEACEBUILDING
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model
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S = Sources
P = Parties
I = Issues and interests
T = Tactics
C = Changes
E = Enlargement
R = Roles
O = Outcomes
W = Winner
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
PILLAR 2
Conflict Conditions
Individual level
Societal level
International
level
Global/ecological level
PILLAR 1
Conflict Sources
Parties (violent)
Issues
Objectives
Means
Conflict-handling
orientations
Conflict environment
PILLAR 3
Conflict Resolution
Prevention
Management
Settlement
Resolution
Transformation
Environmental Conflict
What is it?
“Environmental conflict” boils down to
conflict (or “disputes”) over
environmental resources.
Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes?
Resolution = How can we address them?
Environmental Conflict
What are the “resources”?
 Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources
 Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan)
 Land (property rights)
 Conflict over renewable resources
 Forests and timber
 Air
 Water
Environmental Conflict
What are the dynamics?
Environmental Conflict
What are the dynamics?
The environment
(water resources included)
is neither a necessary nor
sufficient cause of
violent conflict
Environmental Conflict
What are the dynamics?
RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
= POTENTIAL CONFLICT
 Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to
conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999)
 Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to
state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002)
 Differential power and differential impacts of environmental
degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001)
BUT if we think critically and creatively human
ingenuity can overcome…
Water Conflict
History
demonstrates
peace
But
as the
environment
and
and
cooperation
in
managing
institutions change this pattern
shared water resources.
could change too.
Water Conflict
 Popular coverage of and rhetoric around
international “water wars”
 Indirect role in intrastate, rather than
interstate, violent conflict
 Internal fragility associated with inequity of
water scarcity problems
 Problems with quality and quantity
Water Conflict
 Environmental change (including global
warming) means more water in some areas,
less water in others, and pollution worldwide
 Environmental change can cause social stress
and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust
to those changes in a productive way
Water Conflict
A source of destruction,
poverty & dispute
A source of production,
growth & cooperation
•Drought
•Healthy people
•Flood & inundation
•Healthy ecosystems
•Landslide
•Food production
•Desertification
•Energy production
•Contamination
•Navigation
•Epidemic & disease
•Cultural Value
•Dispute, even conflict
•Cooperation
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
PILLAR 2
Conflict Conditions
Individual level
Societal level
International level
Global/ecological level
PILLAR 1
Conflict Sources
Parties (violent)
Issues
Objectives
Means
Conflict-handling
orientations
Conflict environment
PILLAR 3
Conflict Resolution
Prevention
Management
Settlement
Resolution
Transformation
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Parties
There are many different users of water:
 Water for people (supply and sanitation)
 Water for environment (ecosystems)
 Water for food (irrigation)
 Water for energy (hydropower)
 Water for other purposes
(e.g., culture or religion)
They have different, sometimes competing needs.
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Parties
 upstream vs. downstream
 urban vs. rural
 rich vs. poor
 haves vs. have-nots
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Parties
 Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes)
cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines
 Interstate
 Intrastate
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict
 Ownership
 Who has the right to it?
 Consumption
 How should it be used?
 Distribution
 Who has access and who does not?
 Management
 How should it be governed?
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Category
Type
Renewable natural
resource changes
Quality
Quantity
Temporal
Variability
Other physical
changes
Demographic
Relational changes
Behavioral
Infrastructure
Parties (individuals and groups)
Institutions
Power and influence
Conflict tactics
Eco-economic
changes
Value of and relationship to the resources
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Direct/indirect control over resources = power
 Control over supply (domestic and industry)
 Control over food production (domestic and export)
 Control over environment (drought and flood)
 Control over health issues (diseases)
 Control over energy production (hydropower)
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal
Water Scarcity 2025
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: Societal/International
Projected Population
Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD
Mega cities
Rapid urban
growth in
secondary
cities &
towns
Still many in
fragile rural
areas
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: International
More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: International
Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions
Physical Effects of Climate Change
 Increased variability, availability and access to resources
 Changes in precipitation
 Glacial melt
 Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination)
 Increased desertification
 Changes to crop seasons
 Changes in biodiversity
 Rising sea levels
 Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland
 Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations
 Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods,
droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions
Social Impacts of Climate Change
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Loss of livelihoods
Economic shocks and instability
Food shortages and food insecurity
Human health impacts (e.g. disease)
Food insecurity
Trade relations
Migration
Political instability and state fragility
Spillover effects impacting neighboring areas
Inequitable impacts and social tensions
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Resolution
Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy)
Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping)
Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking)
Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking)
Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Resolution
Building capacity to deal with conflict:
Organizations
(e.g., policy and official administrative structures)
and
Institutions
(e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors, knowledge)
Three Pillar Model
Conflict Resolution
Environmental Peacebuilding
Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to
promote social, economic, and political
relationships through joint environmental
management and benefit sharing
Opportunities both for prevention and
transformation are everywhere…
Cases
Nile River Basin
Cases
The Sahel Region
Cases
Yemen
Cases
Israel and the Palestinian Territories
Cases
The Dead Sea
Cases
Indus River Basin
THANK
YOU.