Transcript Central Europe - The Millennium Project

SOFI Czech Republic:
Tentative outcomes
Millennium Project, Central European Node
Department of Development Studies
Faculty of Science
Palacky University Olomouc
17. listopadu 12, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic
Pavel Nováček
Petr Kladivo
Jan Macháček
Jiří Teichmann
Aims:

Calculation of simple regional SOFI (14 regions in the Czech Republic)

Calculation of complex baseline SOFI as well as partial SOFIs for the Czech Republic
(demography, social, economy, environmental)
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Analysis of regional differences - period 2001 - 2010
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Classification of regions according to selected criteria
Methods:

Calculation of „simple“ SOFI (2001-2010), all variables have equal weight (1)všechny
proměnné mají stejnou váhu, SOFI calculated also for each of 14 regions within
Czech Republic, Real Time Delphi will be done later (probably autumn 2012)
Variables:
First results:

thematic SOFI CR 2001-2010
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)
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Why are the poor poor and the rich are rich?

The answer might lie somewhere else other than in the known theories of
development.

There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation:
a) dependence theory,
b) the influence of geographical and environmental factors
c) culturological approach
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

Maybe every development theory has some truth in itself, but what we need is to
create some inventive synthesis.

Perhaps future-oriented thinking it the principal key to prosperity and success.

If future oriented thinking is important factor to prosperity and success, then we need
instrument how to measure it – the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI).
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

Max Weber pointed to the Protestant ethic and its influence on the development of
capitalism in Europe and North America.

The postponement of current consumption, savings, investment, hard work, all with
the vision of God´s salvation after this life; that is a typical example of future-oriented
thinking which determines our current behavior and actions.

Therefore it is desirable to formulate a Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI), which
would complement such indexes as GDP, HDI, SOFI and others.
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

FOTI is by methodological approach close to the SOFI developed by Theodore J.
Gordon and the Millennium Project.

But FOTI should focus more on identyfying how people are able to take into account
future challenges and behave according to them, less on „state of the future“
(measuring whether situation will improve or deteriorate).

Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to calculate FOTI.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Education
1.
Public expenditures on higher education
Percentage of households connected to internet
Research expenditures
2.
3.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Health
1.
Public expenditures for health prevention
Consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs
Percentage of overweight people in society
2.
3.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Economy
1.
Income distribution – GINI Index
Households savings
Values of external debt
Values of inherent debt
Total debt service
Internal debt of country expresssed as degree of neglected infrastructure (roads,
buildings,…)
Official development assistance (ODA) expenditures
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Environment
1.
Expenditures to renewable energy resources and into energy savings
Expenditures of households to buy ecological food
Recycling (% of recycled paper, alluminium etc.)
Ratio of total number of cars and bicycles in country
CO2 emissions
Percentage of nationally protected areas
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Other
1.
People voting in elections
Percentage of religious people actively practicing their religion
Ratio of households expenditures for food and for culture
Number of accepted patents in one year
2.
3.
4.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Additional indicators were proposed by two MP members as first feedback:
1.
Per capita cell phone
Per capita number of servers
Price of high speed connection
Doctors per 100 000 people
Scientists per capita
Futures courses per capita
Think tanks per capita
Percent government budget for long-range planning
Subscriptions per capita to futurists magazines
Number of hits on Google in search of the country and the term „future country x“
Websites with the name future in it per capita
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
FOTI – next steps
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Next step should be to select final list of indicators.
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All data should be publicly accessible sources.
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The overall index then should be calculated for individual countries as an arithmetical
average of all selected variables (individual indicators)
Polish Subnode

Translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary into Polish

Spreading the word: Distribution of the Polish translation of SOF 2011 Executive
Summary among Polish entrepreneurs, government officials and scientists

Introducing SOFI methodology to the Polish Club of Rome and Polish Academy of
Sciences
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Cooperation with Economic University of Cracow in the area of futures studies and
technology foresight
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Cooperation with University of Warsaw – the first ever Polish course in humanities
through futures studies will be taught starting October 2012
Polish Subnode

Launching www.ptsp.pl – a futurology and foresight oriented Web portal created in
a cooperation with the Polish Futures Studies Society. It is quickly rising in
popularity in Poland and becoming an important reference for Polish internet users.
Its development is threefold:
1.
News section, presenting current, punctual information
Weekly topics – reviews, comments, reports
A growing volume of general futures´resources, translated by authors´courtesy
from original languages
2.
3.
Slovak Subnode

International Colloquium Designing the Future in Europe 2011 (October, Prague) –
Civic Futurological Society

Conference Global Existencial Risks 2011 (30. November – 1. December 2012,
Bratislava) – Slovak Society for Environment

International Conference 40 Years of Limits to Growth (March 2012, Bratislava) –
Slovak Association for the Club of Rome
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Seminar: Gunter Pauli – Blue Economy (May 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Association
for the Club of Rome

Seminar: Conscious Evolution and Creative Design of Syntropic Economic Theory
(March 2012, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society
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Seminar: From Limits to Growth to Blue Economy – Forty Years of Publishing
Reports to the Club of Rome (June 2012, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society
Slovak Subnode – scheduled activities

Conference Global Existencial Risks 2012 (November, Bratislava) – Slovak Society
for Environment

International Colloquium Designing Future in Europe 2013 (Prague) – Civic
Futurological Society

International Conference Global Problems, Local Solutions 2013 (Bratislava) – Slovak
Association for the Club of Rome
Thank you for your attention
Pavel Nováček
Central European Node
[email protected]