Transcript regional pilot studies

FACCE-JPI
Joint Programming Initiative
— ERAnet Coordination and Support Action
• fundingfor JPI governingboard, scretariat,
scientificadvisoryboard, JPI meetings
Assessing and raisingbiological
resource use efficiency
Food
Security
Responding to a globally
increasedfooddemand
adaptation
FACCE JPI
mitigation
Building resilience
in agricultural systems
Agriculture
Climate
Change
Operating within GHG,
energy & contaminants
limits
FACCE-JPI structure
Governing Board
(21 countries)
elects
Knowledge Hubs
Stakeholder Advisory
Board
Stakeholder Consultation
FACCE JPI Secretariat supports GB &
SAB
Scientific Advisory Board
(12 members)
Scientific Research
Agenda
Core Research Themes
1. Integrated assessment of food
security
2. Sustainable intensification
3. Tradeoffs with ecosystem services
4. Adaptation to climate change
5. GHG mitigation
Implementation
FACCE-JPI core themes
FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub
1. Integrated assessment
of food security
2. Sustainable intensification
3. Tradeoffs with ecosystem services
4. Adaptation to climate change
5. GHG mitigation
FACCE Knowledge Hubs
• An instrument building on the concept of
“Networks of excellence”
• Brings together research groups that already have
funding in an thematic area
• The support given can be coordination costs, travel
expenses and thematic workshops. Countries may
choose to support research and/or mobility.
FACCE MACSUR expectations
MACSUR — Modelling European AgriculturewithClimate Change for Food Security
• Detailed climate change risk assessment for
European agriculture: how will climate variability
and change affect regional farming systems in near
and far future?
• What are the risks and the opportunities for
European agriculture and food security?
• An ensemble of crop and livestock models will be
benchmarked, inter-compared and coupled to
both climatic and economic models in
collaboration with the international project AgMIP.
FACCE MACSUR
16 countries
•Austria
•Belgium
•Czech Rep.
•Denmark
•Estonia
•Finland
•France
•Germany
•Israel
•Italy
•The Netherlands
•Norway
•Poland
•Romania
•Spain
•Sweden
•UK
© EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries
FACCE MACSUR
• Project started 1 June, 2012; runs 3 yrs
• individual partners start June–August 2012
• Kickoff-Workshop
— 15/16 October 2012, Berlin
FACCE MACSUR
• Coordination & Cross-cutting (Hub)
— Martin Banse (vTI), Richard Tiffin (U Reading)
• Crop modelling (CropM)
— Frank Ewert (U Bonn), Raimund Rötter (MTT)
• Socio-economic modelling (TradeM)
— Floor Brouwer (U Wageningen), Franz Sinabell (WIFO)
• Livestock modelling (LiveM)
— Michael Abberton (Aberystwyth U), JAC Meijs (U Wageningen)
FACCE MACSUR structure
Coordination of Knowledge Hub
TradeM
LiveM
Capacity building
Regional pilot
studies
CropM
Methodological
case studies
Cross-cutting activities
Science excellence
Network activity
FACCE MACSUR structure
Coordination of Knowledge Hub
TradeM
LiveM
Capacity building
Regional pilot
studies
CropM
Methodological
case studies
Cross-cutting activities
Science excellence
Network activity
FACCE MACSUR structure
Coordination of Knowledge Hub
TradeM
LiveM
Capacity building
Regional pilot
studies
CropM
Methodological
case studies
Cross-cutting activities
Science excellence
Network activity
FACCE MACSUR structure
Coordination of Knowledge Hub
TradeM
LiveM
Capacity building
Regional pilot
studies
CropM
Methodological
case studies
Cross-cutting activities
Science excellence
Network activity
MACSUR–CropM
WP1
Model intercomparison (develop
protocols; extend sites, crops)
Christian Kersebaum (DE)
Marco Bindi (IT)
WP2
Model improvements through
generating and compiling data
JørgenOlesen (DK)
MirekTrnka (CZ)
WP3
Scaling methods and model
linking
Frank Ewert (DE),Sander
Janssen (NL),Martin van
Ittersum (NL)
WP4
Scenario development and
impact uncertainty analysis
Reimund Rötter (FI), Daniel
Wallach (FR), M Semenov (UK),
Mike Rivington (UK)
WP5
Capacity building
John R Porter (DK)
WP6
Case studies on impact
assessment (cross cutting theme)
Jan Verhagen (NL)
Derek Stewart (UK)
MACSUR–TradeM
WP1
Existing tools, data, and models
Waldemar Bojar (PL)
WP2
Improved tools, data, and models ØyvindHoveid (NO)
WP3
Cross-cutting issues in regional
pilot studies
Gabriele Dono (IT)
WP4
Capacity building
Katharina Helming (DE)
MACSUR–LiveM
WP1
Building and exploring datasets
and climate models on climate
change in relation to livestock
and grassland
Jacqui Matthews (UK)
WP2
Modelintercomparisonon
climatechange in relation to
livestock and grassland
Gianni Bellocchi (FR)
WP3
Improvingtheassessment of
climatechangeimpact on
livestock and grassland at
farmlevel
Nicholas Hutchings (UK)
WP4
Contribution to crosscuttingactivitieswithintegratedst
udies at regional level
Tommy Dalgaard (DK)
MACSUR–Hub
WP1
Facilitation of regional pilot
studies
Richard Tiffin (UK)
WP2
Capacity building across models
and themes
Martin Banse (DE)
WP3
Coordination of research agenda
and international collaboration
Martin Banse (DE)
MACSUR approach
CropM
2
LiveM
1
3
1
2
2
TradeM
1
0 Scenarios defining boundary conditions
for all themes
•
•
climate change, land use, CAP strategies
level of uncertainty acceptable to
stakeholders
0
1 Inventory of data sets and models;
benchmarking and improvement of
models; ensemble model runs
2 Advancement across two themes tested on methodological case
studies
3 Questions of impact answered by regional pilot studies (linked
to stakeholders) across three themes
MACSUR questions
• How does European agriculture adapt
to climate change and what are its
impacts on food security?
• How does CAP contribute to increasing
food security?
• What are the effects of competing
demands of land use on food security?
MACSUR emphasis
•
•
•
•
•
•
crop rotations
integration across themes
micro (plot) to macro (market) levels
diversity in soil, climate, and systems
training of integrative modellers
knowledge exchange & international
collaboration AgMIP MultiSward
AgTrials
FoodSecure CCAFS
AnimalChange
Different scales ~ different models
• farm-level models, diverse approaches
— FAMOS, MODAM, mathematical farm investment
models
• regional and national models
— optimization of investment, resource use, or food
security
• international and global models
— international trade and policies
• sector models (farm-EU-global)
MACSUR answers
CropM
2
LiveM
1
3
1
2
2
1
TradeM
1
2
3
Each theme advances existing
methodology by benchmarking and
improvement of models using
common data sets and scenarios.
Advancement across two themes is
tested on methodological case
studies.
Advancement across three themes
is achieved by regional pilot
studies (linked to stakeholders) to
answer questions of impact.
Integrated assessment
• build on good modules of existing
models
• increase number of farm types
• use stochastic methods to reflect food
production and climate
• bottom-up variability
• top-down boundary conditions
• no detailed all-purpose model possible
MACSUR int’l cooperation
Sharing of scenarios, MACSUR emphasizes
protocols, and data • crop rotations
— AgMIP
— AgTrials
— FoodSecure
— AnimalChange
— MultiSward
— CCAFS
• integration across themes
• micro and macro levels
• European diversity in soil,
climate, and systems.
• knowledge exchange &
collaboration
• training of integrative
modellers