Transcript Ken Giebel PP

CalHFA Presentation
NCSHA Annual Conference
2014
The Market Summary
1.
Households with children are on a decline, currently ½ and down ¾ since the 1960s. These
household types spawned the suburban sprawl when larger lots sizes, safe places for
children outside cities where in demand. Today, views have changed. First households with
children will be 1 in 4 by 2030 and the current generation having kids are okay with raising
kids in urban environments.
2.
Desire for large homes and lot sizes is going down. Gen Y, the upcoming largest homebuyer
segment sees this home product as undesirable, both as hard to attain and maintain. They
are commute/car adverse and want urban communities, close to people, transportation and
entertainment.
3.
As Gen Y continues to demand urban dwelling types, Gen X and Baby Boomers will be
downsizing and will also be vying for similar housing products in order to be close to services,
healthcare and transportation.
The Market Summary
4.Millennials redefining adulthood, eschewing traditional paths to adulthood. rearranging the order
and importance of benchmarks like parenthood, marriage and home ownership -- they're staying
true to values like loyalty and happiness on their own terms
5.Demand for small lot, multi-family dwelling type is increasing, current and future housing supply
not anticipated to meet demand. Currently, we have too much inventory in housing product no body
wants and not enough in urban, small lot, multi-family dwellings that are in demand.
6.Environmental laws require that MPOs in California prepare “sustainable communities strategies”
(SCS) demonstrating how its region will meet GHG reduction targets set by the state’s Air
Resources Board. These strategies are sure to include land use and transportation plans that
essentially shorten distance between suburban communities to economic centers.
Key Finding: The Population
 California Population
 California is #1 in population in the US with more than 35 million people.
 Projecting 40 Million by 2015, 44 Million by 2025, almost 50 million by 2030.
 California Demographics: Who’s driving housing/dwelling demand
 Age Breakdown - Generational Segments
o Gen Y, ages 15-32, largest segment of future home buyers by 2018
 Will evolve preference for non-auto related environments/communities
 Driving housing demand, urban dwellers near transportation, entertainment and jobs
o Baby Boomer, ages 47-65, will be downsizing suburban homes, moving closer to
services in urban areas

Racial Breakdown
o According to 2010 US Census California's population was 40.1% White, 37.6% Hispanic,
13% Asian, 6.2% African American and 6.3% other and Native American.
o Hispanics: 14 Million Hispanics in California, almost 38% of CA’s population, to be the
majority of Californian’s by 2042.
o Asian: 4.8 Million Asians in California, 13% of CA’s population, 1/3 of the nation’s Asian
population
Key Finding - The Population:
Generational Data for US and CA
•
Gen Y and Gen X largest segments, Over ½ of population between ages 15-46.
Source: US Census, 2010 with 15-34 numbers for Gen Y, 35-49 Gen X, 50-64 Baby Boomers and 65+
for Eisenhowers
Key Finding - The Population:
Households with Children Declining
 Households with children on the decline
 In the Baby-boom era, 50% of the households had children creating demand for
large, detached suburban homes to raise children
 Today, less than 1/3 household have children, by 2030 one in four households will
contain kids
 Between 2010-2020, over 80% of demand for new housing will be generated by
households without children, creating demand for outside conventional single
family homes.
Key Finding - The Population:
Gen Y Insights
 Gen Y, ages 15-32, largest segment of future home buyers by 2018
 Understanding Gen Y Mindset
 Millennials redefining adulthood, eschewing traditional paths to adulthood. rearranging the
order and importance of benchmarks like parenthood, marriage and home ownership -they're staying true to values like loyalty and happiness on their own terms.
 Millennials want to "do well" for themselves, but that means personal accountability and
happiness, not meeting the outmoded expectations of other generations or having the most
sizable bank account. Their job prospects hit hard by the Great Recession, Millennials
have faced a rockier road to reaching the traditional milestones that have defined
adulthood for previous generations (home ownership, a dependable job).
 Subset of Gen Y to watch:
 WINKs: Women with incomes, no kids
o WINKs are a particular group of young women—educated, discerning, motivated,
and successful. They are attending and graduating college at higher rates then
men. Women now make up 56 percent of college populations, and it is expected
that within 10 years, 3 million more women than men could be attending college.
Those college degrees turn into jobs, and jobs come with salaries, and salaries
often wind up paying a mortgage.
Key Finding – Metropolis to Megatropolis:
Emerging Marketing Demands for Housing
 As we experienced the suburban sprawl of the 1960-80s, we are seeing demand coming
back to urban centers
Key Finding – Metropolis to Megatropolis:
Emerging Marketing Demands for Housing
 State of CA is under supplied in desired dwelling types and must prepare to meet
upcoming market demands for urban centered housing close to transportation and
services.
Source: Urban Land Trust Report, The New California Dream, Arthur C. Nelson, 2011
Key Finding – The Population
Hispanic Population
 Hispanic Population numbers are impressive, have grown tremendously over the last 20
years and are projected to continue growth

There are over 50 Million Hispanic descents currently living in US, 16.3% of the total
US population.

13 percentage of Hispanics have a college education and growing quickly.

Over half of the Hispanic population in the United States resided in just three states:
California, Texas, and Florida

Almost 30% of Hispanic Americans live in California. California is home to 14.0 million
Hispanics, or 37% of California’s total population.

This group expected to be the majority of California’s population in 30 years, by 2042.