ERP 수요 관리 - mailab.snu.ac.kr
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Transcript ERP 수요 관리 - mailab.snu.ac.kr
지난 주
• 1주차
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산업공학이란?
ERP/SCM 이란?
Operations Management란?
Innovation의 예
• 2주차
• Demand Management
• 데이타
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ERP:
Mfg Plan’g and Control(MPC)에 근거하여
Demand Management
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Contents for demand management
Demand Mgt and MPC Environment
Communication with other MPC Modules
Forecasting Models
Conclusion
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MPC Concept
중심에는 Business Plan, Sales and Operation Plan, Master
Production Schedule, Material Requirement Plan이 존재한다. 즉
4단계의 Plan을 통해 생산계획이 이루어진다. MPC(Mfg Planning
and Control) 의 기본적 개념이다.
1. Front End는 MPS까지, 2. Engine은 MRP까지, 3. Back End는
두 개의 PO(Production Order와 Purchase Order)가 존재.
1. Frond End의 좌우에는 Demand(Management)와
Resource(Plan)이 존재
2. MRP엔진의 좌우에 PS(Planning and SchedulingRCCP,DCCP,APS)와 MD(Master Data-BOM,IR,R)가 존재.
그림?
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Manufacturing Planning and Control
Business Plan
Front End
Resource Planning
Sales & Operation Plan
Demand Management
Master Production Scheduling
PS
MD
(planning & scheduling)
(master data)
RCCP
Engine
(rough cut capacity planning)
DCP
Material Requirement Planning
(detailed capacity planning)
(inventory record)
(advanced planning & scheduling)
Back End
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B/M
IR
APS
Purchasing Order
Routing
Production Order
Outsourcing
Manufacturing Execution System
[by 이재봉,박진우]
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MPC Concept
Flow Shop, Repetitive Shop, Job Shop, Project Shop
Lean Manufacturing(JIT: Just In Time)의 적용 범주?
MRP의 적용범주?
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Demand Mgt and MPC Environment
Customer Order Decoupling Point
Independent Demand vs. Dependent Demand
MTS(Make To Stock), ATO(Assemble To Order), MTO(Make To
Order) and ETO(Engineer To Order)의 MPC환경이 존재
예: 양복점 또는 피자가게의 MTS, ATO, MTO, ETO
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Demand Mgt and MPC Environment: MTS
Final Goods Inventory, How much and when to order
Physical Distribution Considerations:
-Plant Warehouse, Distribution Centers, Local Warehouse
-VMI(Vendor Managed Inventory)
Balancing the Level of Inventory vs. Level of Service
Better Forecast, Rapid Transportation, Speedy and More
Flexible Manufacturing
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Demand Mgt and MPC Environment: ATO, MTO, ETO
ATO: Personal Computer, Car, Some Industrial Products
Configuration Management, Modules, Options Components
Inventory Advantage over MTS(예: Computer)
4 processor options, 3 hard disk options,
4 CD-DVD options, 2 speakers, 4 monitors
374 final products vs. 17 components
ETO: 설계 능력 및 설계 용량
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Communication with Other Modules: Pyramid Forecasting
Aggregation에 따른
Variance의 변화는?
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Forecasting Models
Simple Models vs. Complicated Models
Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Holt Winters, HW
Seasonal, …
예측 주체: 비전문가, 마케팅 전문가, 예측전문가
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자료 소스: KAIST 전덕빈 교수
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Forecasting Models
수요예측 정보의 소스:
1. Data(주로 시계열), 2.상식, 3.지식(소비자에 대한, 그리고
이론지식), 4.경험(영업 담당자), 5. 환경(신상품, 기술혁신,
경쟁, 규제완화, 고객 행태 및 구매력 변화)
모델: 시계열 모델 (Time Series, BJ)
vs. 인과관계 모델(Regression, Econometric, Causal Rel.)
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자료 소스: KAIST 전덕빈 교수
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Forecasting Models
Time Series Model
The general representation of an autoregressive model, well-known as AR(p), is
where the term εt is the source of randomness and is called white noise. It is assumed to have the following
characteristics:
With these assumptions, the process is specified up to second-order moments and, subject to conditions on the
coefficients, may be second-order stationary.
If the noise also has a normal distribution, it is called normal or Gaussian white noise. In this case, the AR process may be
strictly stationary, again subject to conditions on the coefficients.
Regression Model
In the more general multiple regression model, there are p independent variables:
where xij is the ith observation on the jth independent variable, and where the first independent variable takes the value 1
for all i (so is the regression intercept).
The least squares parameter estimates are obtained from p normal equations. The residual can be written as
The normal equations are
In matrix notation, the normal equations are written as
where the ij element of X is xij, the i element of the column vector Y is yi, and the j element of
n×1, and
is
. Thus X is n×p, Y is
is p×1. The solution is
For a derivation, see linear least squares, and for a numerical example, see linear regression (example).
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Conclusion
Supply Chain의 가장 중요한 부분
모델과 실제 경험 부분은 수업 중 강의 내용과 위키피디아 자료 및
별도의 비공개 핸드아웃 참조할 것.
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비행기 승객 데이터
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