Transcript Robert Huebert, University of Calgary

Centre for Military and Strategic Studies
LESSONS LEARNED; CANADA, THE ARCTIC
AND SHIPBUILDING
New Paradigms for Defence and Industrial Policy
Rob Huebert
[email protected]
School of Policy Studies , Queen University , , February 27 2012
Canada, the Arctic and
Shipbuilding
• Canada will need substantial increases in its
arctic capable Fleet
• Canada’s history is problematic
• Canada is examining new means of
acquiring ships
– Politically lead Process
– Rationalization of process
The Problem
• The Arctic is a state of massive
transformation
– Climate Change
– Resource Development – (was up to a high
$140+ barrel of oil- now $98 barrel)
– Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization
• How do we understand what is happening?
• What is the role Canada in this new Arctic
security regime?
Oil and Gas: Resources of the North
Oil and Gas
Source: AMAP
New Technologies:
Proposed Arctic LNG
Source: Samsung
Heavy Industries
Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction &
boundaries in the Arctic
www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic
New Geopolitics of the North
•
Russia
– Renewed Assertiveness
– Petrodollars/but growing economic shorfalls
•
United States
– Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act
– International Role as remaining Superpower
– Developing Economic instability
•
Norway
– Refocus on North
– Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia
•
Denmark
– Issues with Greenland – social; energy
– New Naval capabilities
•
Iceland
– Economic melt-down
– Growing relationship with China
•
Finland/Sweden
– NATO – Loyal Arrow
•
Canada
– Re-examining its Arctic capabilities
– Renewed Assertiveness
Russia
Renewed Russian Strengths
• 1990’s Period of Reduction
– AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub
Decommissioning
• 2000’s Renewal
• 6 SSBN 995 Borey
– 1 built; 3 building
• 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney
– 1 built; 2 building
Yury Dolgoruky
• Payment Challenges
• Build 6 subs and 1 carrier a year 2013
-Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin
United States
US Arctic Forces
• Submarine Forces:
•
•
•
•
US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class
Cooperation with UK
ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN
ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina
- Missile Development
Missile Defence – Ft. Greely
USS Honolulu 2003
HMS Tireless 2007 after accident
New Norwegian Frigates
• Fridtjof Nansen class
• 5 built in Spanish Yards
• Aegis system
Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008
Source: RNoAF
Svalbard- Norwegian Coast Guard
Source: Canadian American Strategic Review
Danish Vessels
Thesis class
Flyvefisken class
Swedish/Baltic Response to
French Sales to Russia
• Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK,
Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania
plus Finland, Sweden
• Swedish FM - Submarines
Mistral
China
•Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk
-1st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999
-2nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003
-3rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008
•Polar Research Institute of China
New Chinese Icebreaker
South Korea
1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker
Source: Samsung
Heavy Industries
The History
• The voyage of the Polar Sea and its
aftermath
• Clark’s 6 point arctic policy
– Construction of polar 8 icebreaker
– Construction of 10 to 12 Nuclear powered
submarines
Failure of 1986 Policy
• Polar 8 Icebreaker
–
–
–
–
Politicalization of process
Provincial Shipyards Battle
Lack of political support
Impact of deficit/debt
• Nuclear Powered Submarines
– End of Cold War
– Confusion over purpose
– Impact of deficit /debts
What is Canada now doing?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New Military Operations since 2002
6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels
Nanisivik Refueling Facility
Northern Watch
Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker
Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg
Canada Shipbuilding Policy Oct 2011
Canadian Navy in Northern Waters
Post 2002
Base Location
Resolute Bay
Iqaluit
Ft. Greely
St. John’s
Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel
General Arrangements – Upper Deck
15
Source: Canadian Navy
B
Diefenbaker
New Developments
• Shipbuilding Policy
– Rational non-political Process
– Long term durability
• Politically led Capital Project – AOPV
– Decision was from Political Elites
– Did Navy want the vessel?
• American Arctic Requirements
– Good cooperation since 1986
– American need for icebreakers
Conclusion
• Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after
end of Cold War
• New concerns are arising as Arctic is
perceived/becoming more accessible
• Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace
• Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to
the region
• Canada will need substantial maritime assets
• Current plan is promising