#### Transcript E.ON PowerPoint

Technical Analysis applied on Energy Markets Holger Galuschke, Technical Market Analyst Düsseldorf, June 15th, 2010 Holger Galuschke Technical Analyst Energy Markets (Power, Oil, Coal, Gas, Carbon, Freight) Technical Tools: Indicators, Trendlines, Support/ Resistance Lines, Support/Resistance Channels, Fibonacci Relationships, Analysis of Contraction & Expansion, Dow Theory, Point & Figure Co-Author of „Tradingwelten“, Finanzbuch Verlag 2 We are part of E.ON E.ON Energy Trading is part of one of the world’s largest investor-owned power and gas companies, with commercial activities around the globe. 3 E.ON is an integrated energy company Central Europe E.ON Energie AG, Munich Russia E.ON Russia Power, Moscow Pan-European Gas E.ON Ruhrgas AG, Essen United Kingdom E.ON UK plc, Coventry Nordic E.ON Nordic AB, Malmö Italy E.ON Italia, Milan Spain E.ON España, Madrid Climate & Renewables E.ON Climate & Renewables GmbH, Düsseldorf US Midwest E.ON U.S. LLC, Louisville Energy Trading E.ON Energy Trading SE Düsseldorf 4 We unite the entire trading expertise of E.ON We trade in all major European markets. We are active at all major exchanges. We are active in 40 countries. All E.ON’s European trading expertise is united in Düsseldorf. 5 We have a large stake in the international energy markets* Power: 1,240 TWh Gas: 1,498 TWh CO2 allowances: 501 million t Oil: 69 million t Coal: 223 million t Adjusted EBIT: 949 million € (*All numbers cited are for 2009) 6 Contents 1. 2. 3. Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Technical Analysis on individual Energy Products Bringing Energy Market together 1. Indexed Relative Performance Charts 2. Volatility Analysis in the Energy Markets 3. Correlation Analysis in the Energy Markets 4. Beta Factor Analysis in the Energy Markets 4. Oil as the Benchmark in the Energy Markets ? 1. The Impact of EURUSD on the Oil Market 2. Power as the Benchmark in the Energy Markets ? 3. Gas as the Benchmark in the Energy Markets ? 4. Coal as the Benchmark in the Energy Markets ? 5. Carbon as the Benchmark in the Energy Markets ? 5. Technical Analysis in Cross Commodity Trading – Spreads 7 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Trendchannels Support/ Resistance Lines Exponential Weighted Averages Bollinger Bands Fibonacci Ratracements and - Targets MACD Expansion / Contraction Momentum Volume RSI Stochastics Source: Thomson Reuters TradeSignal Enterprise Open Interest Volatility 8 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Source: Thomson Reuters, Updata 9 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport 10 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Bollinger Bands Introduced by: John Bollinger in the early 80s Category: Envelopes based on standard deviation around a moving average used for: evaluating medium term volatility UpperBandt MidBand 2 * LowerBandt MidBand 2 * n 1 σ * (Pr ic e i Pr ic e)2 n 1 i 1 Bollinger Bands -> n = 20 (days) / STD -> n = 2 11 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets MACD – Moving Average Convergence Divergence Introduced by: Gerald Apple in the 60s Category: Trend following System Based on two Exponential Weighted Averages Oscillator Concept MACD = Difference between two Exponential Averages Study of a Study: Signal = Exponential Weighted Average of the MACD Values used for: evaluating medium term impulses EWAt * Pricet (1 ) * EWAt 1 MACDt EWAt , fast EWAt ,slow Signalt * MACDt (1 ) * Signalt 1 2 n 1 EWAslow -> n = 20 (days) / EWAfast -> n = 10 (days) / EWASignal -> n = 5 (days) 12 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Momentum / Rate of Change Introduced by: Welles Wilder in 1978 in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” Category: Trend following System Based on Difference between two prices EWA of the Momentum Values to smooth Momentum study used for: evaluating medium term impulses Momentumt Pricet Pricet n1 EWAMomentum , t * Momentumt (1 ) * EWAMomentum , t 1 RateOfChanget Pricet Pricet -n 1 Momentum -> n = 20 (days) / EWAMomentum -> n = 5 (days) 13 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets RSI Introduced by: Welles Wilder in 1978 in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” Category: Overbought/Oversold System based on relationship between up- and down differences in prices EWA of the RSI Values to smooth RSI study used for: evaluating short term impulses RSIt 100 RS 100 1 RSt Avg(Upn ) Avg( Downn ) Avg(Up)t Up Avg( Down)t t 1 * (n 1) n Downt 1 * (n 1) n RSI -> n = 10 (days) / EWARSI -> n = 5 (days) 14 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Stochastics Introduced by: George Lane in the 50s Category: Overbought/Oversold System based on relationship between current close and aggregated high-low range EWA of the Stochastics Values to smooth Stochastics study used for: evaluating short term impulses K % 100* Closet LowestLown HighestHighn LowestLown D % SMA( K %)3 slowD% SMA( D %)3 Stochastics -> n = 10 (days) / EWARSI -> n = 5 (days) 15 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Volatility used for: evaluating short term volatility ... of statistical trading range of one day ... of statistical trading range of two day (to include gaps) 16 Technical Tools applied on the Energy Markets Trend channels based on corrections high points within a downtrend low points within an uptrend Support / Resistance Lines based important lows and high importance dependent on cause of appearance Fibonacci Relationships based on Fibonacci Row of numbers (1...1...2...3...5...8...13...21...34...55...89...144...233...∞) Fibonacci Relationships: 55:89 ≈ 0.681 / 55:144 ≈ 0.382 / 55:233 ≈ 0.236 ... 55:34=1.618 / 55:21 ≈ 2.618 / 55:13 ≈ 4.236 ... Used to evaluate possible correction targets and possible impulse targets Foundation for Elliott Wave Analysis 17 Technical Analysis on EURUSD Source: Thomson Reuters, TradeSignal Enterprise 18 Technical Analysis on individual Energy products – Oil Source: Thomson Reuters, TradeSignal Enterprise 19 Technical Analysis on individual Energy products – Gas Source: Trayport, TradeSignal Enterprise 20 Technical Analysis on individual Energy products – Carbon Source: Thomson Reuters TradeSignal Enterprise 21 Technical Analysis on individual Energy products – Coal Source: Trayport, TradeSignal Enterprise 22 Technical Analysis on individual Energy products – Power Source: Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 23 Technical Analysis on Freight Source: Thomson Reuters, TradeSignal Enterprise 24 Technical Analysis on Gas – Fibonacci Retracements & Targets Source: Thomson Reuters, TradeSignal Enterprise 25 Technical Analysis on Power – Fibonacci Retracements & Targets Source: Thomson Reuters, TradeSignal Enterprise 26 Technical Analysis on Spreads – API2 vs. API4 Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 27 Technical Analysis on Spreads – API2(€) vs. NBP(€) Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 28 Technical Analysis on Spreads – API2(€) vs. NBP(€) Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 29 Bringing the Energy Markets together – From Individual to Integrated Evaluation Indexed Relative Performance Charts Volatility Analysis Correlation Analysis Beta Factor Analysis 30 Indexed Relative Performance of the Energy Markets Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport, TradeSignal Enterprise 31 Volatility Analysis in the Energy Markets What is Volatility ? A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using standard deviation or variance between returns from that security or market index. Return can either be calculated as absolute or logarithmic relative. Standard Deviation The Standard Deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a data set from its mean. Formula ind n 2 1 * xi x n 1 i 1 closeind x ln closeind,t -1 dep n 1 * yi y n 1 i 1 2 closedep y ln close dep, t -1 32 Correlation Analysis in the Energy Markets What is Correlation ? The Correlation describes the linear relationship between two or more statistical variables. In financial markets, the question which should be answered is whether there is a dependency between two or more time series and if so, how distinctive it is. The mathematical figure which answer that question is the Correlation Coefficient. Correlation Coefficient The Correlation Coefficient is the figure to determine the grade of linear relationship. The Correlation Coefficient can accept values between +1 and -1. A Correlation Coefficient of +1 means a complete positive relationship („the more ...the more“), a Correlation Coefficient of -1 means a complete negative relationship („the more...the less“) between two time series. A Correlation Coefficient of 0 means no relationship between two time series. 33 Correlation Analysis in the Energy Markets Formula The Correlation Coefficient r according to Pearson is calculated as follow: n r (x i 1 ind ,i xind ) * ( ydep,i ydep ) n n 2 ( x x ) * ( y y ) ind ind ,i dep,i dep 2 i 1 i 1 34 Beta Factor Analysis in the Energy Markets What is Beta Factor ? The Correlation describes the linear relationship between two or more statistical variables. If the independent market moves up and the dependent market moves also up, the Correlation is +1. If the independent market moves down and the dependent market moves up, the Correlation is -1. If the independent market moves and the dependent market does not, the Correlation is 0. The Beta Factor expands the meaning of the Correlation Factor. It is not only a measure of Correlation it is in addition a measure of risk. Beta is also referred to as financial elasticity or correlated relative volatility, and can be referred as a measure of the sensitivity of the return of the dependent market to those of the independent market. It is the non-diversifiable risk, its systematic risk or market risk. 35 Beta Factor Analysis in the Energy Markets Variance and Covariance Variance: The Variance is closely related to the Standard Deviation. It is simple the square of it. Or, in other words, the Standard Deviation is the Square Root of the Variance. Covariance: It is a measure of how much two variables changes together (Variance is a special case of the covariance, when the two variables are identical). If two variable tend to vary together, then the covariance between this two variables is positive. Conversely, if one of them tends to be above its expected value and the other below, then the covariance between this two variables is negative 36 Beta Factor Analysis in the Energy Markets Formula The Beta Factor is calculated as follow: Covxind , ydep Varxind x n i 1 ind ,i Covxind , ydep ind 2 xind * ydep,i ydep x n i 1 ind ,i xind 2 37 Coal vs. Carbon – Volatility, Correlation and Beta Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 38 Oil as the Benchmark ? – Oil vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 39 Excursion: EURUSD as the Benchmark ? – EURUSD vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport, TradeSignal Enterprise 40 Excursion: S&P 500 as the Benchmark ? – S&P 500 vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport, TradeSignal Enterprise 41 Gas as the Benchmark – Gas vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 42 Carbon as the Benchmark – Carbon vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 43 Coal as the Benchmark – Coal vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport TradeSignal Enterprise 44 Power as the Benchmark ? – Power vs. “All” Source: Thomson Reuters, Trayport, TradeSignal Enterprise 45 Conclusion: At a glance, the energy markets seem to move in the same direction in general But under the magnifying glass there are distinctive differences Correlation and Beta Factor can help the trader / analyst to benefit from the interrelated energy market This knowledge can be useful in particular, if trading cross commodity, for example Spreads Examples: In the Power Market: (Clean) Dark Spreads and the (Clean) Spark Spreads In the Oil Market: Crack Spreads In the Carbon Market: EUA / CER Spreads etc. 46