Transcript Future scenarios in agriculture

Future scenarios in agriculture
Nick Vink
Institute for Futures Research
Department of Agricultural Economics
University of Stellenbosch
[email protected]
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Foresight Project Report
BFAP Outlook
Supply considerations
Demand considerations
Africa
1. The Foresight Project
Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report. The
Government Office for Science, London
The five challenges
A. Balancing future demand and supply sustainably – to
ensure that food supplies are affordable.
B. Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food
supplies – and protecting the most vulnerable from
the volatility that does occur.
C. Achieving global access to food and ending hunger.
Producing enough food is not the same thing as
ensuring food security for all.
D. Managing the contribution of the food system to the
mitigation of climate change.
E. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services
while feeding the world.
Six drivers of change: Population
increase
• To 8bn by 2030 and >9bn by 2050
• Most in poorer countries: Africa’s population will
double to two billion by 2050
• Factors affecting population size include
GDP growth
Educational attainment
Access to contraception
Gender equality
The extent of female education
Urbanisation
Six drivers of change: per capita
demand for food
• Some food items (such as grain-fed meat)
require more resources to produce than
others
• Meat: increases in per capita consumption
from 32 kg today to 52 kg by the middle of
the century: implications for land, water and
other inputs
• Fish: demand is expected to increase
substantially, and mostly met by
aquaculture: consequences for the
management of aquatic habitats and the
supply of feed
Six drivers of change: governance of
the food system
• The globalisation of markets
• The emergence and continued growth of
new food superpowers: Brazil, China and
India
• The trend for consolidation in
transnational companies in agribusiness,
and food retail
Six drivers of change: governance of
the food system
• Production subsidies, trade restrictions
and other market interventions of the rich
countries
• The extent to which governments act
collectively to face challenges in shared
resources, trade and volatility in
agricultural markets.
• The control of increasing areas of land for
food production such as in Africa
Six drivers of change: climate change
• The backdrop is rising temperatures and
changing patterns of precipitation
• These will affect crop growth and livestock
performance and the functioning of
ecosystem services
• Extreme weather events will increase price
volatility
• Policies for climate change mitigation will also
impact on the food system
Six drivers of change: competition for
key resources
• Land for food production: Additional land is
available for food production, but in practice land
will come under pressure for other uses
• Land will be lost to erosion, urbanisation,
recreation, desertification, salination and sea
level rise
• Global energy demand: Double to 2050, and the
food system is vulnerable to higher energy costs
• Global water demand: Agriculture currently
consumes 70% of ‘blue water’ withdrawals, and
demand could double by 2050.
Six drivers of change: food ethics
• A major influence on politicians and policy
makers and on patterns of consumption
• Examples include
The acceptability of modern technology (GM)
Production methods such as organic and related
management systems
The value placed on animal welfare
The relative importance of environmental
sustainability and biodiversity protection
Issues of equity and fair trade
12
BFAP Baseline
• World market: OECD-FAO Aglink Cosimo
model and the FAPRI US and World
Agricultural Outlook
• Macroeconomic assumptions
• South African supply and demand
• Cooperation with industries
• Farm level analyses
• Building scenarios around the assumptions
13
Assumptions
2011
2012
2013
Tariffs
Population
(million)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Remain as in 2011
50.8
51.1
51.3
51.5
51.7
51.9
52.1
52.3
52.5
52.7
SA cents/$
708
733
757
781
807
831
854
878
903
929
SA cents/Euro
Economic
growth (%)
Interest rate
(%)
1046
1065
1100
1139
1180 1220 1259 1299 1341 1385
3.7
4.2
4.6
3.9
9.00
10.00
10.07
10.13
3.4
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
10.20 10.27 10.33 10.40 10.47 10.53
Gross income in agriculture
180
Index (Constant 2000)
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
15
Gross value of field crops
Recovery, then flattening out
210
180
Index (Constant 2000)
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
16
Gross value of animal production
Poultry, dairy
240
Index (Constant 2000)
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
17
Gross value of table grapes, apples
and pears
Export markets
200
180
160
Index (constant 2000 prices)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
18
Farm requisites
200
180
Index (Constant 2000)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19
Real Net Farm Income
500
Index (Constant 2000)
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20
45000
36
40000
32
35000
28
30000
24
25000
20
20000
16
15000
12
10000
8
5000
4
0
Percentage
R Million (Constant 2000)
Real farming debt
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Debt (Left Axis)
Debt as % of Total Asset Value (Right Axis)
21
Most important trends
• Historically high levels of yields for maize (>4.5 t/ha)
and wheat
• Shift out of (white) maize and towards soybeans and
sunflower
• Area planted to oilseeds will reach 1.2m ha in 2020,
compared to 2.2m ha for maize
• Rise and rise in consumption of poultry meat: 2.2m
ton/year in 2020, compared to beef (<1m ton)
• SA remains a net importer of all meat
• Growth in dairy to 2.6m ton in 2020: cheese fastest
growing
22
Consumer market
+38%
20
18
16
-5%
+28%
-45%
% of SA adult population
14
-49%
12
+60%
10
-69%
+52%
+68%
8
+12%
6
4
2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
2004
2005
LSM 5
2006
LSM 6
2007
LSM 7
2008
LSM 8
2009
2010
LSM 9
LSM 10
23
3. Supply considerations
ANNUAL REAL FOOD PRICE INDICES
(2002-2004=100)
Source: FAO, 2011
Food Price Index
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Meat Price Index
Cereals Price Index
Oils Price Index
Potential arable land and arable land in use in developing
countries, 1997/1999 and 2030
Region
Total land Arable land in Land in use as
Balance
suitable use (million ha) % of potential (million ha)
(million ha) 1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030
Developing countries
2 782
956 1 076
34
39 1 826 1 706
Sub-Saharan Africa
1 031
228
288
22
28
803 743
Near East/North
99
86
93
87
94
13
6
Africa
East Asia
366
232
237
63
65
134 129
South Asia
220
207
216
94
98
13
4
Latin America
1 066
203
244
19
23
863 822
Growth in land under irrigation,
1961-2007
Irrigated land
Oceania
South America
Asia
Central America
World
South Africa
Africa
North America
Europe
Av annual growth (%)
2.40
1.80
1.78
1.70
1.59
1.37
1.34
1.16
0.98
Potential irrigated land and irrigated land in use in developing
countries, 1997/1999 and 2030
Total land Irrigated land in Irrigated land
Balance1)
suitable for use (million ha) in use as % of (million ha)
irrigation
potential
(million ha) 1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030
Developing countries
403
202
242
50
60
201 161
Sub-Saharan Africa
37
5
7
14
19
32
30
Near East/North Africa
44
26
33
62
75
18
11
East Asia
112
71
85
64
76
41
27
South Asia
142
81
95
57
67
61
47
Latin America
68
18
22
27
32
50
46
Region
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Million tons
Total and per capita agricultural
production in Africa, 1964-2006
Total
Per capita (kg)
700
750
600
700
500
400
650
300
600
200
550
100
0
500
Land use in Africa: field crops
Cereals,Total +
Oilcrops Primary +
120
Millions
100
80
60
40
20
0
Coarse Grain, Total +
Roots and Tubers,Total +
Land use in Africa: horticulture, pulses
Fruit excl Melons,Total +
Treenuts,Total +
Pulses,Total +
Vegetables&Melons, Total +
25
15
10
5
0
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Millions
20
Yield trends in Africa
Coarse Grain, Total +
Roots and Tubers,Total +
1.5
10
1.4
9
1.3
8
1.2
1.1
7
6
5
1
0.9
4
3
0.8
2
0.7
1
0.6
0
x 10000
x 10000
Cereals,Total +
Net agricultural exports from
Africa, 1961-2007
Imports ($000)
40
30
Billion $
20
10
0
-10
-20
Exports ($000)
Net exports ($000)
4. Demand considerations
South Africa: exports to world and Africa for
2008 and 2009
Description
Total
($m)
Exports to the Growth
world
from
2008
2009 1997 (%)
Exports to
Africa
2008 2009
agriculture
Growth
from
1997
(%)
% to Africa
200 2009
8
5,517
5,603
6.6
1,721
1,86
6
Corn (Maize) ($m)
510
445
4.9
445
419
11.0
87
94
Cane Sugar ($m)
Food preps, other
($m)
218
387
3.8
133
171
7.0
61
44
83
89
13.2
73
79
12.9
87
88
Fruit Juice ($m)
170
170
7.7
52
66
12.4
31
39
Waters ($m)
65
70
8.0
56
62
7.1
86
88
Sunflower Oil ($m)
91
60
9.8
24
60
9.8
27
99
Apples, Pears ($m)
Cereal Meal etc
($m)
367
365
6.8
59
56
10.3
16
15
52
52
10.2
51
51
10.2
98
99
Wine ($m)
754
727
12.0
54
49
9.2
7
7
8.3
31
33
South African agricultural exports to
Africa
1997
2007
2008
2009
$m
World
growth
African total
% pa
%
2,536
4,233
5,517
5,603
6.61
AFRICA
686
890
1,721
1,866
8.3
2009 cumulative
Zimbabwe
58
60
421
420
16.5
22.5
22.5
Kenya
128
44
123
333
7.9
17.8
40.3
Mozambique
124
197
262
252
5.9
13.5
53.8
Angola
91
131
179
173
5.4
9.3
63.1
Zambia
42
58
223
135
9.8
7.2
70.3
DRC
39
30
41
61
3.7
3.3
73.6
Mauritius
46
53
54
54
1.4
2.9
76.5
Nigeria
4
41
50
49
20.3
2.6
79.1
Tanzania
18
27
41
42
7.2
2.3
81.3
Malawi
32
23
34
41
2.0
2.2
83.5
South African imports from Africa
Africa share of total
imports (%)
Description
2008
2009
Growth (%
pa)
Total
259.0
255.5
2.2
5.5
6.0
Tobacco
50.3
48.2
2.1
48.3
25.0
Cotton raw
50.9
45.9
-2.9
100.0
99.9
Tea
23.9
35.1
6.7
83.1
85.6
Cocoa paste
14.8
16.5
10.7
78.9
88.8
Oilcake
17.5
16.3
6.0
69.4
50.8
Oilseeds
5.5
9.7
4.9
56.6
72.1
Molasses
3.8
8.2
27.8
34.9
74.8
Bran
11.2
6.2
9.0
96.8
90.0
Coffee
Leguminous
vegetables
5.2
5.9
6.0
4.3
4.5
10.2
6.6
8.9
11.9
6.5
2008
2009
South Africa’s agricultural imports from
Africa, 2008 & 2009
1997
2008
RSA imports from the world
4,735.
($m)
1,894.2
3
2009
4,275.
7
RSA imports from Africa ($m)
255.5
195.8
259.0
Growth
(% pa)
Share of Africa
total
6.8
2.2
%
Cumulativ
e
-0.6
31.4
31.4
41.7
3.1
16.3
47.7
26.6
29.4
3.4
11.5
59.2
8.9
26.4
21.6
7.4
8.4
67.7
Ivory Coast ($m)
20.0
16.2
17.6
-1.1
6.9
74.5
Uganda ($m)
0.2
11.4
14.6
34.8
5.7
80.2
Tanzania ($m)
2.1
15.2
13.7
15.5
5.3
85.6
Kenya ($m)
7.0
7.1
6.5
-0.6
2.6
88.1
Ethiopia ($m)
0.3
4.7
4.4
21.5
1.7
91.8
% from Africa
10.3
5.5
6.0
Zimbabwe ($m)
86.4
77.8
80.2
Malawi ($m)
28.9
43.5
Zambia ($m)
19.6
Mozambique ($m)
Wine exports to Africa
• Total wine exports have declined the past 3
years
• Packaged exports declined most
• SA is therefore exporting more bulk wine
(little value added)
• BUT the market for packaged wine in Africa is
growing fast
39
Exports of packaged wine
Rank
UK
Sweden
Netherlands
Nigeria
Kenya
China
All Asia
All Africa
1
2
3
10
12
11
Exports
(litre)
Year to
July 2010
(m litre)
85.2
32.9
20.2
2.8
2.7
2.0
8.4
12.1
Exports
(litre)
Year to
July 2011
(m litre)
45.2
28.6
18.5
3.4
2.9
3.0
8.4
13.4
Increase
(decrease)
(%)
(47)
(13)
(9)
20
20
51
0
1140