Transcript Threats to Food Security

Threats to Food Security
Fall 2012 , Lecture 4
Food Crisis
• Beginning in 2007, the world faced a food crisis
• Food riots occurred in India, Mexico, and Yemen
• In late October, the Russian government, hoping to
ease tensions ahead of parliamentary elections early
next year, announced a price freeze for milk, bread and
other foods through the end of January
• The principle cause was the rising price of oil, which
had reached about $100/barrel near the end of the year
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Food Cost Increases in 2007
• Inflation was driven by double-digit price hikes for
almost every basic foodstuff
 Dairy products prices rose as much as 200% in some countries
 Maize prices hit a 10-year high in February
 Wheat was up 50%, rice up 16% and poultry nearly 10%
• Retail prices are up 18% in China, 17% in Sri Lanka and
10% or more throughout Latin America and Russia.
Zimbabwe tops the chart with a more than a 25%
increase.
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Biofuel vs. Food
• Certain foods can be converted into biofuels, such as ethanol
or biodiesel
• Use of food for energy production drives up the price of food
• World Bank’s food price index rose by 15% between October
2010 and January 2011, and was 29% above its level a year
earlier
• The quarterly increase was driven largely by increases in the
price of sugar (20%), fats and oils (22%), wheat (20%), and
maize (12%)
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Maize (corn)
• Maize prices have increased sharply and are affected by
complex linkages with other markets
• In January 2011, maize prices were about 73% higher than
June 2010 - These increases are due to:
 A series of downward revisions of crop forecasts
 Low stocks (U.S. stocks-to-use ratio for 2010/11 is projected to be 5% the lowest since
1995)
 Positive relationship between maize and wheat prices
 The use of corn for biofuels
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Use of Maize for Biofuel
• Ethanol production demand for corn increases as oil prices go up, with
sugar-based ethanol less competitive at current sugar prices
• United States Department of Agriculture estimates show the share of
ethanol for fuel rising from 31% of U.S. corn output in 2008/9 to a
projected 40% in 2010/11
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Impact of Rising Food Prices
• World Bank estimates that the fourth quarter 2010
rise in food prices may have put 44 million people
into poverty
• 68 million people who fell below the $1.25 per
person per day poverty line and 24 million net food
producers who were able to escape extreme poverty,
due to rising rice prices
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Relation of Food and Petroleum Prices
• Prices of oil affect food prices through:
 Their effects on the prices of fertilizers
 Their effects on transportation costs
 Incentives for the diversion of food production into
biofuels
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Biofuels Animated Diagram
• National Geographic Biofuels
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Biofuel Sources
•
•
•
•
Corn (maize)
Sugar cane
Jatropha
Cellulose (crop residue)
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National
Corn
Growers
Association
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Before Spin
• “Ethanol production makes huge amounts of the nation’s corn
disappear – some 1.4 billion bushels went into ethanol
production in 2004 – and that affects overall corn supply and
helps shore up corn prices nationwide.”
• From NCGA website, July 2, 2005, as cited in
“Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle” by Tad
W. Patzek, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, page 2
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Thermodynamic Analysis
• Patzak concludes, “… the total energy inputs into
ethanol production are equivalent to 4–5 metric
tonnes of gasoline per hectare
• The ethanol’s calorific value is equal to 1–1.3 metric
tonnes of gasoline.”
• This is based on an exhaustive analyses (96 page
report)
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Corn
• Despite industry spin, corn is, at best, a marginal source for
ethanol production
• Ethanol has lower energy content per unit volume than
gasoline, so a gallon of E10 fuel does not propel a vehicle as
far as a gallon of pure gasoline
• Corn used to make ethanol converts 0.5% of solar energy to
fuel
• Solar photovoltaic panels or solar thermal plants are about
15% efficient
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Fuel Efficiency
• “…vehicles will typically go 3–4% fewer miles per gallon on
E10 than on straight gasoline.”
• “Flexible fuel vehicles operating on E85 usually experience a
25–30% drop in miles per gallon due to ethanol’s lower energy
content”
•
From http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/ethanol.shtml, “the official U.S. government source
for fuel economy information”
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• Interview with Mike Krueger,
is the founder and President of
The Money Farm
• The Money Farm is a grain
marketing advisory service
located near Fargo, North
Dakota, that works with
individual farmers, country
elevators and others
associated with agriculture
• He is a licensed commodity
broker
Mike Krueger
Interview
•
This interview appeared
on Oklahoma Horizon TV as
Show 639, probably in 2007
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Sugar Cane
• Sugar cane has been used for ethanol production, starting in
the 1970’s in Brazil
• The ratio of output energy (renewable) to input energy (fossil)
for sugar cane varies between are 8.3 and 10.2
• Both former presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton have
endorsed the use of sugar cane for biofuel production
• Clinton added a warning against deforestation, however
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Jatropha
• A plant native to Central America, which produces seeds which have
long been used around the world as a source of lamp oil and soap
• It is not a food crop, and can grow on eroded farmland or land
considered non-arable for food crops
• Jatropha seeds can be crushed to yield jatropha oil, which can be
processed to produce biodiesel fuel suitable for use in a standard
diesel car
• The residue from crushing can be processed and used as biomass
feedstock to power electricity plants or used as fertilizer
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Jatropha Advantages
• Can be ground on marginal land, not competing with food
crops
• Can be converted in very small scale plants to biodiesel fuel –
say in a rural village
 Grow crop
 Press oil
 Convert to biodiesel for use in village, with no transportation costs
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Jatropha Drawbacks
• Has not been domestically cultivated, although
work is on-going in both China and India
towards cultivation
• Many species produce toxic compounds, and
ingesting as little as three seeds of one species
can be fatal
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Cellulose
• Plant residue is composed mainly of cellulose
• Cellulose is an organic compound with the
formula (C6H10O5)n
• It is a a polysaccharide consisting of a linear
chain of several hundred to over ten thousand
linked glucose units (the n in the formula)
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Uses of cellulose
• Cellulose is used to make paper and paperboard
• It may be converted to cellophane or rayon
• Research is underway to convert cellulose to cellulosic ethanol
as an alternative fuel source
• No cost effective method exists today
• Cellulose offers a vast source of energy, if such a method is
developed, so there is economic incentive
• Cellulosic ethanol would not compete with food
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Negative Impacts of Biofuel Production
• Increased biofuel production is expected to have large impacts
on biological diversity in the coming decades
 Habitat loss mainly from cropland expansion will be most important
impact
• In Brazil, the planted area of sugar cane comprised 9 million
hectares in 2008 (up 27% since 2007).
• In Southeast Asia, palm oil expansion – for food and non-food
purposes – is regarded as one of the leading causes of rainforest
destruction
• Two-thirds of the current expansion of palm oil cultivation in
Indonesia is based on the conversion of rainforests, one third is
based on previously cultivated or to-date fallow land
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Negative Impacts, cont.
 Increased invasive species and nutrient pollution.
• Species and genotypes of grasses suggested as future feedstocks of
biofuels may become critical as invaders
 Nutrient emissions to water and air resulting from intensive fuel
cropping will impact species composition in aquatic and terrestrial
systems.
 Modeling the future biodiversity balance for different crops on different
land types has shown that GHG reductions from biofuel production
would often not be enough to compensate for the biodiversity losses
from increased land use conversion, not even within a time frame of
several decades
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Negative Carbon Offset
• In a study by Lapola et al., which appeared in PNAS,
the authors conclude that, “The planned expansion of
biofuel plantations in Brazil could potentially cause
both direct and indirect land-use changes.”
 Biofuel plantations replace rangelands
 Rangelands replace forest
• Any resulting deforestation can offset carbon savings
through biofuel use
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Negative Carbon Offset 2
• Palm oil would cause the least land use change, and
resulting negative carbon offset
• Lapola et al. recommend that, “a closer collaboration
or strengthened institutional link between the biofuel
and cattle-ranching sectors in the coming years is
crucial for effective carbon savings from biofuels in
Brazil”
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Bioethanol Production
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Biodiesel Production
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OECD-FAO Food Price Forecast
• OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook
states that over the
coming decade real
prices for cereals
could average as
much as 20% higher
and those for meats
as much as 30%
higher, compared to
2001-10.
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020
says, “Higher prices for commodities are being
passed through the food chain, leading to rising
consumer price inflation in most countries
• This raises concerns for economic stability and food
security in some developing countries, with poor
consumers most at risk of malnutrition, the report
says”
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Agricultural Outlook Report
• When inflation is factored in, the nominal prices –
what people actually pay – will be still higher,
making food bills yet harder to stomach.
• “People are going be forced, either to literally eat
less, or find other sources of income," said Angel
Gurría, the head of OECD
• The world’s “slow growing” supply of food coupled
with high demand will be to blame for the rising
prices, according to the experts behind the report.
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Voice of
America
Newscast
• Aired
8-12-12
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KCCI Video
• Video
segment
from Des
Moines TV
station,
8/6/12
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Changing Dietary Preferences
• Economic growth, urbanization and rising affluence
are influencing diet preferences
• Higher demand for
 Convenient, processed foods
 Meat
 Dairy products
• A western diet!
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Malnourishment
• Under eating, leading
to starvation
• Overeating, leading
to obesity, diabetes,
etc.
• Increasing strain on
health-care systems
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Over-Indulgence and Waste
• In 2007, the average American ate more than
twice as much meat as the average Chinese
resident
• At the same time, consumers in rich countries
waste almost as much food as the entire food
production of sub-Saharan Africa
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Different Patterns of Obesity
• In the U.S., seven of the 10 states with the highest poverty
levels are also among the 10 states with the highest rates of
obesity
• In emerging countries obesity tends to be concentrated in the
middle classes – those who lead more sedentary lifestyles and
consume more processed foods.
• Countries such as Mexico and South Africa are having to
increasingly deal with problems of the over-fed at the same
time as those of the under-fed.
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Livestock
• One kilogram of beef requires:
 Twelve times the water needed to produce 1 kg of
wheat
 More than five times as much land
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Protein Prices
• Aired 8-7-12
• WTHI TV, Terra
Haute, Indiana
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Crop Yield and Fertilizer Input
“Green
revolution”:
• High-yielding
crop varieties
• Chemical
fertilizers
• Pesticides
Global Fertilizer use
• Irrigation
• Mechanization
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Corn, Wheat
Comparison
• Recent increase in corn
production due to use
of corn for biofuel
production
• Input costs have been stable over the last 10 years, increasing with
inflation; however, fertilizer has more doubled in price
• Per acre, the cost of a nitrogen-based fertilizer is now almost double
that of the seed cost
• Why has fertilizer cost outpaced that of labor, machinery, land, and
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seed costs?
Energy Costs of N-fertilizer
• Production of 1 kg Nitrogen fertilizer requires an amount of
energy equal to 1.5 liters of diesel fuel (1)
• The cost of natural gas now accounts for up to 90 percent of
the cost of making nitrogen fertilizer, according to the U.S.
Government Accountability Office (2)
• Sources (1) and (2) are shown in lower pane (applies to all
future presentations)
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U.S. Food System
• The US food production system uses about
50% of the total US land area, 80% of the
fresh water, and 17% of the fossil energy used
in the country
• The heavy dependence on fossil energy
suggests that the US food system, whether
meat-based or plant-based, is not sustainable
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