Transcript COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES & STUDIES

AST’s Research Roadmap
2. Space Transportation Ops,
Technologies & Payloads
1. Space Traffic Management &
Operations
2.1 Ground System &
Ops Safety Techs
1.1 Orbital
1.2 Suborbital
2.2 Vehicle Safety
Analyses
1.3 NAS Integration
1.4 Spaceport Operations
2.3 Vehicle Safety
Systems & Techs
1.5 Integrated Air/Space
Traffic Management
2.4 Payload Safety
2.5 Vehicle Ops Safety
3. Human Spaceflight
3.1 Aerospace Phys &
Medicine
3.2 ECLSS & Habitability
3.3 Human Factors
3.4 Human Rating
3.5 Personnel Training
On the web at
www.coe-cst.org
under the
“Publications”
tab.
4. Space Transportation
Industry Viability
4.1 Markets
4.2 Policy
4.3 Law
4.4 Regulation
4.5 Cross-Cutting Topics
COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY
ANALYSES & STUDIES
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CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN
ON THE ROLE OF DATA
AND THEORY IN
STRATEGY AND
INNOVATION
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“Strategy and innovation
are somewhere between
unguided trial-and-error experimentation
and
rules-based science.”
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“We train managers and
do research about management
[with] the belief that
decisions should be grounded in
solid analysis of data.”
[Data-based analyses] “rely on
an implicit theory:
The past is a good predictor of the future.”
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“The game is changing,
meaning
what was successful in the past
would no longer guarantee
success in the future.”
6
“The level of one's insight is not
strictly a function of the level of one's
access to unique or proprietary
information.”
“Armed with the right concepts,
anyone can produce insights that
surpass those of analysts who are
knee-deep in industry minutiae.”
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“The only way to look into the future
is to use these sorts of theories,
because
conclusive data is only available about
the past.”
“Good theory provides a robust way to
understand important developments,
even when data is limited.”
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“Theory is even more helpful when
there is an abundance of data.”
“With more information available,
it is harder to discern what
information really matters.”
“Theory helps to block out the noise
and to amplify the signal.”
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“Many people who make their
livings providing advice about the
future express deep skepticism
about theory-based
prognostication.”
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COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY
ANALYSES & STUDIES
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Targeted Barriers of Entry
Technology Development
IP
owned by
with royalties to
NASA
who
develop
Researchers
employs
if initial success, seeking
more funds from
Venture
Capitalists
Entrepreneur
to the
selling the
providing next
level of funding for
leading to
licensed to
running the
seeking startup funds from
Angels
ROI
Technologies
working with
USG Agencies
Customers
& Profits
helping
grow the
attracting
permitting
Goods &
Services
Start-up
Company
providing
initial funds for
producing
for the
IPO, M&A
A $20M
Company
sold by
if successful, becoming
A Growing Company
if Round B-C
successful,
becoming
if enough,
leading to
Capability Demonstration
Epistemology
Management
& Consulting
Political Science
& Policy
Economics & Finance
Industry Modeling & Strategic Planning
Epistemology
• Definition: The Nature, Scope,
Limitations of Knowledge.
• The Usefulness of Models (Taleb)
• Increases Understanding
• Easier to Remember
• Simplifies by Necessity
• 3 Types of Scientific Literature (Kuhn)
• Journal Articles
• Text Books
• Popularizations
• Evolution of Scientific Investigation (Johnson)
• Joseph Priestley vs. Antoine Lavoissier
Political Science
& Policy
• Commercial Development Policy History. (Hart)
• “U.S. policymakers, particularly at the state and local levels,
have been groping toward an explicit entrepreneurship policy
for at least a couple of decades. Their experiments have
typically been pragmatic, inspired by immediate needs and
pressures and by one another's examples, rather than by a
grand theoretical design.”
• Space Power Perspectives
• ISS (Cathedral) - Commercial Space (Common Bazaar).
• Policies Of Conflicting Interests (Hertzfeld)
• National Security vs. Commercial Space
Economics & Finance
• Finance Is The Practical Application Of Economics.
• Rationality of Markets Is Highly Debatable.
• Provides Important Perspectives On Industry.
• Lack Of Consensus Makes Decision-making Very Hard.
• “If You Put X Economists In A Room, You Get 2x
Opinions.”
THE BOTTOM LINE
USG needs to be
“smart buyers” of mgt
consulting services.
Management
& Consulting
BUSINESS CONSULTING
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
LEVELS
1980 - 18,000
2005 - 180,000 (10x)
MBA DEGREES EARNED
1968 - 18,000
1988 - 70,000 (3.9x)
2008 - 140,000 (2x)
BIZ CONSULTING EMPLOYMENT
OF NEW GRADUATES
25% MBAs @ Top Biz Schools
16% BAs @ Elite Universities
• WHAT IS MANAGEMENT CONSULTING?
• NOT a discipline.
• A collection of unsolved problems and
hidden agendas.
• Asking the right questions is more
important than finding the right answers.
• Issues temporarily placated, not resolved.
• Offers (pretended technological) solutions
to what are moral and political problems.
• MBA: TRAINING vs. EDUCATION
• Emphasis on technique, not theory
• In formal evaluations, those without MBAs
performed better than those with MBAs.
◄Porter & McKibbin [1988]:
“Key managers pay
little or no attention to
[academic business]
research or its
findings.”
• Industry Frameworks, Structures
• Industry Structural Analysis (Porter)
• Disruption Innovation Theory
(Christensen)
• Game Theory Value Net
(Brandenburger & Nalebuff)
• Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers)
• 10 Schools of Strategic Mgt (Mintzberg)
Industry Modeling & Strategic Planning
Need for Commercial Space
Industry Analyses & Studies
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Policy tends to by “pragmatic, inspired by immediate needs
and pressures and by one another's examples, rather than
by a grand theoretical design.” - David Hart, "The Emergence of Entrepreneurship Policy"
•
USG Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy Regarding
Commercial Space Industry…
•
Currently Relies Heavily Upon Personal Experience and
Data-Based Studies & Methodologies
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Could Benefit from Theory-Based Analyses & Structures
•
Approach: Make Use All Analytical Options To Provide More
Nuanced Perspectives to Support Decision-Makers
•
Goals: Strategic Development of CST Industry Policy &
Acquisition
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Scope of Commercial Space
Industry Analyses & Studies
•
Other
•
Accounting
•
Economics
•
General Business
•
Finance
•
Information Technology
•
Insurance
•
International Business
•
Law
•
Real Estate and Urban
Land Economics
•
Risk Management
•
Work and Organizations
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Human Resources
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Management (Strategic ~)
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Marketing
•
Operations
•
Multiple-Disciplinary
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Recent Work
NASA, FAA & Other USG Reports
• 1997 Commercial Space
Transportation Study
• 2002 DoC OSC Space Market Opportunities
• 2003 ASCENT Study performed by Futron
Corporation (D. Webber) funded by NASA
MSFC
• 2008 2nd NGEC Entrepreneurial Opportunity
in Lunar Development
• 2008 Oxford Analytical "Understanding the
Space Economy"
• 2010 FAA Commercial Human Spaceflight
Workshop
• 2010 Near Earth LLC “Supporting
Commercial Space Development”
• 2011 NASA Commercial Space
Transportation Market Assessment Report
• FAA Launch Forecast Reports (Annual)
• FAA Economic Impact Reports (Biannual)
US Industry, State, Academic, & Int'l Reports
• 2008 Tauri Report for PSF
• 2009 Toffler B&W Paper
• 2010 Paper: Measuring the Impact of Space Tourism
Activities
• 2011 Tauri Report to Space Florida: Reusable
Suborbital Market Characterization
• 2011 MD The Business of Space Science
• OECD Space Economy at a Glance Reports (2007,
2011)
• “Enabling Complementary Commercial and
Government Enterprises In Space” by Dr. M. Griffin
presented at the 2011 IAC.
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Current Theory-Based Studies
Commercial
Space Market
Disruption Innovation Theory
(Christensen)
Industry Structural Analysis
(Porter)
"Suborbital Market Overview And
Application Of Disruption Theory" by K.
Davidian, 2010 IAC.
•
COMING SOON: “Suborbital Research Market Industry
Structural Analysis" by K. Davidian and C. Conrad.
Orbital Launch • "Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied
Vehicles
to Commercial Cargo and Crew Space
(Cargo &
Transportation Markets" by K.
Crewed)
Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I.
Christiansen, 2011 IAC.
•
"An Industry Structural Analysis and Strategy Insights for
the Commercial Crew Transportation Industry" by D.
Kaiser, I. Christiansen, J. Foust and K. Davidian, AIAA
Space 2011.
Suborbital
Vehicles
On-Orbit
Spacecraft
•
•
•
"Applying Disruption Innovation Theory • "Industry Structural Analysis Of Commercial Crew To
in Emerging Markets for Crew On-Orbit
Orbit Sector" by B. Cheetham, 2010 IAC.
Transportation" by I. Christiansen, K.
• "Strategic Evaluation Of Commercial Crew To Orbit
Davidian, D. Kaiser and J. Foust, AIAA
Transportation Industry Structure And Status" by B.
Space 2011.
Cheetham, 2011 IAC.
Nano-Sats
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“Market Characterization: Launch of Very-Small and
Nano-Sized Payloads Enabled By New Launch Vehicles”
by I. Christiansen, D. Vaccaro and D. Kaiser, 2010 IAC.
Multi-Market
•
"Are Commercial Space Transportation Industries
Emerging?" by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I.
Christiansen, 2011 IAC.
Next Steps: Application of Game Theory Frameworks,
Application of “Diffusion of Innovations” Research
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Summary
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Current Portfolio of Industry Analyses are Heavily
Data-Based
•
Addition of Theory-Based Analyses With Data-Based
Studies Can Paint a More Nuanced Picture
•
Ultimate Goal is Better Space Policy and Acquisition
Strategy Decisions
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BACK-UP SLIDES
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