Transcript and price developments

FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11
Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras
UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO),
University of Stavanger (UiS), Pontifica Universidad Católca del Perú
and the Norwegian Seafood Export Council (NSEC)
FPI is a global price index
 Based on fish and seafood import data to EU, Japan and
USA from Jan 1990 to the present (currently Dec 2010)
 The index includes only fish and crustaceans and only
product forms that are some combination of:
 Fresh
 Frozen
 Whole
 Filleted
 Peeled
 No products with additional processing are included with
the exception of canned tuna.
Trade-off between global scope
and accuracy of price information
 Two desirable characteristics of a price index are
representativeness and pure-price- comparison
 Ideally, we would like an index to represent as many
products and markets as possible.
 And ideally, we would like an index to always
compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
 However, some form of compromise is necessary
The main species groups in FPI
EU15
Mill. USD
Other fish
White fish
Salmonidae
Crustaceans
Pelagic excl. tuna
Tuna
TOTAL
2,175
4,116
3,391
2,955
264
2,352
15,253
Japan
%
14%
27%
22%
19%
2%
15%
100%
Mill. USD
646
764
1,423
2,165
370
2,240
7,607
USA
%
8%
10%
19%
28%
5%
29%
100%
Mill. USD
1,007
1,883
1,760
3,916
35
1,242
9,842
TOTAL
%
10%
19%
18%
40%
0%
13%
100%
Mill. USD
3,828
6,763
6,574
9,035
668
5,833
32,702
• For 2009 the index covers 77%, 77% and 72% of total imports to
the European Union, the United States, and Japan respectively
• On a global basis, the FPI covers 53% of total seafood imports
worldwide measured in value for the year 2007
%
12%
21%
20%
28%
2%
18%
100%
Many species included
 White fish: Halibut, plaice, flounder, sole, hake, whiting, haddock,
pollack, sea bass, sea bream, saithe, cod, redfish, pangasius, tilapia,
nile perch etc.
 Salmonidae: Atlantic salmon, coho, sockeye salmon, rainbow trout
etc.
 Crustaceans: crayfish, lobster, crab, shrimp, prawn species etc.
 Pelagic fish (exluding tuna): sardines, anchovies, sprat, mackerel,
horse mackerel, blue whiting, herring and more.
 Tuna: albacore, yellowfin tuna, bluefin tuna, bigeye tuna,
skipjack/stripe-bellied bonito, Southern bluefin tuna and others
 Other fish: Carp, swordfish, toothfish, eel, shark, dogfish, sturgeon,
barracuda and many more
FPI can be split into more
detailed sub-indices
 This gives a tool to investigate
 how seafood markets in different countries and regions
are linked
 how prices for different species and product forms
influence each other
 We will discuss research issues where the price index
can prove useful
180
FAO Fish Price Index
160
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
140
120
100
80
60
40
TOTAL
AQUACULTURE
CAPTURE
20
0
160
140
FAO Fish Price Index
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
CAPTURE
160
140
FAO Fish Price Index
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
CAPTURE
180
FAO Fish Price Index
160
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
AQUACULTURE
180
FAO Fish Price Index
160
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
AQUACULTURE
200
180
160
Fish Species Price Indexes
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Other fish
White fish
Salmon
Shrimp
Pelagic e/tuna
Tuna
200
180
160
Fish Species Price Indexes
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Salmon
Shrimp
180
160
140
Fish Species Price Indexes
(100=2005)
Data Source: NSEC
120
100
80
60
40
Other fish
White fish
Pelagic e/tuna
Tuna
20
0
Conclusions
 The FAO Fish Price index is, as any index, crude, but
still contain valuable information
 Gives main trend in seafood prices
 Can be broken down to sub-indexes
 Can help fisheries analysts and managers with long
run trends
 Reveal scarcity/competitiveness
 Opens up new opportunities for research on seafood
markets