Transcript INFLEXION IN KERALA`S GULF CONNECTION

INDIA
S. IRUDAYA RAJAN
HIGHLIGHTS
• EMIGRATION FROM AND REMITTANCES TO
INDIA
• MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES: KERALA
EXPERIENCE
• MACRO IMPACT
Emigration Estimates
• High Level Committee on Indian Diaspora in
2001: 20 million (people of Indian origin and
Non-Resident Indians): 16 million
• Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs (MOIA) in
its first annual report, 2004-2005 states that
Indian Diaspora is about 25 million.
• MOIA in its latest annual report, 2012-13: 25
million in 183 countries.
Estimates of Non-Resident Indians
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High Level Committee, 2001
Gulf: 3.3 million
Europe: 0.2 million
Asia and Pacific: 0.2 million
Africa: 0.08 million
Central and South America: 7307
USA: 1.7 million; UK: 1.2 million; Canada: 0.9
million; South Africa 1.0 million (PIO+NRI)
Estimated Indian Migrant Stock, 2010
Destination Countries
Australia
Qatar
Sri Lanka
Kuwait
Oman
Canada
United Kingdom
Nepal
Bangladesh
Saudi Arabia
United States of America
United Arab Emirates
All Other Countries
Total
Number
209908
250649
336352
393210
447824
516508
657792
831432
1052775
1452927
1654272
2185919
1371256
11360823
MOIA-RUIM-CDS Estimates
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Based on our research in Kerala since 1998
Our estimate: 12 million workers
6 million in the Gulf
UAE No 1, followed by Saudi Arabia
What do other data sources tell us about Gulf
Migration?
• As per the latest MOIA annual report, 97% of
the ECR passport holders left for Gulf.
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Trends in Workers Emigrated from India, 1985-2012
Emigration (in million)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Workers Granted Emigration Clearance by Major States, 1993-2012
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
Kerala
Uttar Pradesh
Labour outflows from India by destination 1988-2012
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Saudi Arabia
UAE
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012e
Trends in Remittances : 1975-2012
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Remittance flows to India as
Percentage of GDP 1990- 2012
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Kerala Migration Surveys
• Kerala Migration Survey 1998
• Kerala Migration Survey, 2003
• Kerala Migration Survey, 2007
• Kerala Migration Survey, 2008
• Kerala Migration Survey, 2011
www.cds.edu
Emigrants, Return Emigrants and
Non-Resident Keralites, 1998-2011
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1998
1500000
2003
2008
1000000
2011
500000
0
EMI
REM
NRK
Number of Emigrants by Districts in Kerala, 2011
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Population of Kerala and Emigration by
Religion, 2011 ( in percent)
Number of Kerala Emigrants in the Gulf Countries, 1998-2011
2011
2008
2003
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
1998
Total Remittances for Kerala 1998-2013
Years
Rs (Crores)
1998
13652
2003
18465
2008
43288
2011
49695
2013
60000
Total Remittances by Districts, 2011
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Macro-Economic Impact of Remittances, 1998 - 2011
Indicators
1998
2011
Remittances
13652
49695
NSDP
53552
159144
Modified NSDP
67204
208839
Per Capita Income
16062
52084
Modified Per Capita Income
20157
67994
State Debt
15700
78239
Remittances as percent of NSDP (%)
25.5
31.2
Remittances as ratio of Revenue Receipt
1.9
1.6
Remittances as ratio of Transfer from Centre
6.9
6.2
Remittances as ratio of Government Expenditure
2.3
2.2
Remittances as ratio of State Debt
0.9
0.6
Remittances as ratio of Receipt from Cashew Export
10.4
30.4
Remittances as ratio of Receipt from Marine Export
16.7
29.8
Percent of Households with Emigrant and
possession of Very Good or Luxurious houses
EMI
HH
Nadar
SC/ST
SC/ST
Nadar
Viswakarma
Viswakarma
Ezhava
CSI
Muslim
Ezhava
Nair
Muslim
Orthodox Syrian
Syrian Malabar Catholic
Brahmin
Nair
Latin Catholic
Marthoma Syrian
Jacobite Syrian
Latin Catholic
Marthoma Syrian
CSI
Orthodox Syrian
Jacobite Syrian
Malankara Syrian Catholic
Syrian Malabar Catholic
Brahmin
Malankara Syrian Catholic
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Annual Savings and Investment
Annual
Savings
Annual
Investments
HHs with No Emigrants
16244
60304
HHs With Emigrants
32809
139919
Total
21991
91187
Membership
Monthly Food and Non Food expenses
Membership
FOOD
Non Food
Expenses
HHs with No Emigrants
2850
3144
5994
HHs With Emigrants
3256
4425
7681
Total
2994
3597
6591
Annual Health and Education Expenses
Annual
Medical
Expenses
Annual Education
Expenses
HHs with No Emigrants
6469
10688
HHs With Emigrants
12169
19186
Total
8538
13933
Membership
Direct Benefits of Migration
• Savings and Investment
• Human Development (education and
health)
• Unemployment and Poverty
• Standard of Living
• Reduce Inequality
Indirect effects of migration
• Reductions in Fertility
• Political participation (financing political
parties and elections)
• Philanthropy
• Women empowerment
• Knowledge and skills diffusion
• Entrepreneurship and work culture