Transcript New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment through Focused

New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment
through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara
SuperSITE
Work programme topics addressed:
ENV.2012.6.4-2 Long-term monitoring experiment in
geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural
hazards: the Supersite concept16 - FP7-ENV-2012-twostage.
Project Coordinator: Prof. Dr. Nurcan Meral Özel
Project acronym: MarSite
B) The seismicity of the Marmara Region from combined
catalogues of KOERI and TUBITAK (1964-2011,
M≥2.5).
A)
Instrumental observation infrastructure of Marmara
The occurrence years and possible locations of historical earthquakes .
The MARsite project proposes to identify the Marmara region as a ‘Supersite’
within European initiatives to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based
observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk
assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities to respond to all
priorities identified in the ENV.2012.6.4-2 call.
OBJECTİVES
MARsite aims to:
1) harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to
provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in
addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes),
2) investigate loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient preearthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and
around Marmara Sea.
3) explore earthquake/landslide triggering mechanisms and tsunami hazard
modelling.
4) obtain rapid source-mechanism solutions and slip models,
5) develop new algorithms for early warning and rapid-response studies,
6) establish a risk management cycle with the creation of a link between the scientific
community and end users.
7) to develop novel geo-hazard monitoring instruments including high-resolution
displacement meters, novel borehole instrumentation and sea-bottom gas emission
and heat-flow measurement systems, in association with the relevant industrial
sectors and SMEs.
Participant no.
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(Coordinator)
Participant organisation name
KOERI
(Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute)
Country
Turkey
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GFZ
(Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum)
TUBITAK
(The Scientific & Technological Research Council of Turkey)
IFREMER
(Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea )
INGV
(Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)
IU
(Istanbul University)
KOU
(Kocaeli University)
ITU
(Istanbul Technical University)
CNR
(The National Research Council)
BRGM
(Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières)
Eucentre
(European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering)
CNRS
(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
INERIS
(French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks)
AMRA
(Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk)
EMSC
(European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre)
ESA
(European Space Agency)
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Univ. of Pavia
Italy
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IFSTTAR
(French Institute of Science and Technology devoted to Transport, Planning and Networks)
France
GURALP Systems Ltd
UK
DAIMAR s.r.l.
Italy
SARMAP s.a.
Switzerland
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Germany
Turkey
France
Italy
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Italy
France
Italy
France
France
Italy
France
Netherland
MARsite WPs
JICA-JST Meeting, 26 June 2012
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MARSite
The monitoring of the 'Supersites' should be conducted through a fully
integrated conceptual approach based on collaboration with existing monitoring
networks and international initiatives, developing new instrumentation such as
in-situ sensors, and aggregating space and ground-based observations
(including from subsurface), and geophysical monitoring.
The project(s) will develop and demonstrate the next generation of geo-hazards
monitoring/observing systems, and contribute to establishing comprehensive
natural hazards observatories through a cross-cutting approach.
MARsite will use the power of
-dense seismological, geochemical and GPS networks
-experts on PSInSAR and SBAS analysis
-combination of the remote-sensing and ground-based data
-developing and demonstration of new systems
-Integration of different data sources, uses of data etc.
-early warning and rapid response system for Istanbul
-Real-time data provision during crisis period (e.g. aftershocks)
MARSite
The projects will establish a chain from observations to end users. The outcomes will be
applied to the phases of the risk management cycle relevant for this region.
.Collection of
Multidisiplinary Data from
avaliable networks
.Developing of new
systems
.Contribution of SMEs
Harmonzation&Reevaluation
Geological
Geophysical Models
Hazard estimation
Optimization
of Risk
Cycle under
this project
Risk Studies&Vulnerability
Estimation
EVENT
Links to end users &Risk Mitigation
of the avaliable data
Collobrative efforts
in the frame of the
Marsite
Work Packages
Coordinaton and link to other projects
WP1 Coordination and Project Management
WP leader: N. M. Özel (KOERI)
• 0 - 36 months
Data from available networks, Satellite data/Harmonization and modeling for hazard studies
WP2 Land based Long-term multi-disciplinary continuous monitoring. WP
• 0 - 36 months
WP3 Long-term Continuous Geodetic Monitoring of Crustal Deformation.
0 - 36 months
To develop new technologies and methodologies
WP4 Establishment of Borehole Observation System And High
Resolution Seismic Studies in the Marmara Sea.
0 - 36 months
Work Packages
To estimate real time hazard
WP5 Real- and quasi-real-time Earthquake & Tsunami hazard
monitoring)
• 0– 36 months
To study the triggering between natural hazards, experiences from 1999 eq. (Avcilar)
WP6 Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazard in Marmara
0 - 36 months
To create a link to end-users
WP7 Re-evaluation of the Seismo-tectonics of the Marmara Region.
0 - 36 months
To understand the Marmara tectonics and upgrade the avaliable models
WP8 Monitoring fluid activity and seismicity at the seafloor
using existing autonomous instrumentation.
0 - 36 months
Work Packages
WP9 Early Warning and Development of the Real-time
shake and loss information
0– 36 months
WP10 Data Integration and Dissemination
0 - 36 months
WP11 Dissemination
0 - 36 months
the locations of borehole (red star) earthquake recording stations (triangles
are permanent KOERI stations; rectangles are TUBITAK temporary
stations and red circles are the surface array stations,
which will be installed in the frame of this project)
Establishment of Borehole Observation System and High Resolution Seismic Studies in the
Western part of the main Marmara Fault in the frame of a EU-FP7 project titled as MARSITE
MARsite will adopt Advancing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles
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MARsite will adopt Advancing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles and will incorporate
related GEOSS strategic targets defined as “Provide a shared, easily accessible,
timely, sustained stream of comprehensive data of documented quality, as well as
metadata and information products, for informed decision making….” in GEOSS
Strategic Targets - Document 12 (Rev,1), page 8.
The high level Data Sharing Principles represents on of the foundations for GEOSS,
and their effective yet flexible implementation remains a major challenge. MARSite
will be a good chance to experiment their application. The 10-year implementation
plan sets out the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles:
There will be full and open exchange of data, metadata and products shared within
GEOSS, recognizing relevant international instruments and national policies and
legislation
– MARSite partners will actively share their data among themselves, through
suitable tools such as the shared repository on the project web site, and will
experiment and tune the data sharing models and interfaces that will potentially
be used for data sharing at large within the GEO Supersite iniziative
Outcomes of the MARsite project:
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Geodetic monitoring of 4D deformations in order to understand earthquake cycle processes, to
develop probabilistic earthquake forecasting models and to constrain the seismic hazard models
in the Marmara region;
High resolution data acquired by a new generation deep multidisciplinary complete digital
borehole seismic station;
Rapid and quantitative ShakeMap scheme by implementing finite-source descriptions and
calibrating with multiple geodetic/seismic data;
Characterization of activated and reactivated Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformations
(DGSD) determined through the integration of geological and geomorphological analyses with
high-resolution DInSAR;
Knowledge on the distribution of active structures in the Marmara Region and the amount of
motion they localize;
Geophysical, seismological, physical and geochemical data from automatic sea-floor devices
(e.g. OBS, Piezometers, acoustic station and multidisciplinary SN4-type observatory) including
data from periodical cruises for water column sampling and laboratory analyses, for seafloor
degassing measurements; and
Results on earthquake early-warning (EW) and rapid-response systems in the Marmara Region
(Istanbul) with the addition of a pilot landslide monitoring and EW system and introduction of new
space technologies for monitoring and assessment of vulnerabilities.
Therefore, MARsite will surely have an important impact on the regional response for seismic risk
prevention, but also plays a scientific/technical significant role as a European supersite.
JICA-JST Project (Japan-Turkey)
Theme 1: Seafloor Observations for Earthquake Source Models in the Marmara Sea
Region
Subgroup 1.1: Long-term sea-bottom seismic observation
1.1.a Micro-Earthquake activity
1.1.b Stress field evaluation
1.1.c Seismic tomography
Subgroup 1.2: Electromagnetic observation
Subgroup 1.3: GPS-acoustic observation
Subgroup 1.4: Geo chemical studies (water chemistry, radon, temperature, gas
exhalations, current etc.
Theme 2: Estimation of Strong Ground Motion for Earthquake Source Models
Subgroup 2.1: Micro-tremor observation and subsoil structure
Subgroup 2.2: Observation of strong ground motion
Subgroup 2.3: Theoretical estimation of ground motion
Theme 3: Experimental Study of Building Response to Strong Ground Motion
Theme 4: Forecasts of Earthquake and Tsunami Occurrences in the Marmara Sea
Region
Subgroup 4.1: Incorporation of seafloor seismic data into Earthquake Early Warning
(EEW)
Subgroup 4.2: Simulation of large earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault
beneath the Marmara Sea and estimation of possible rupture parameters
Subgroup 4.3: Tsunami simulations and hazard assessment.
Subgroup 4.4: Tsunami monitoring
Theme 5: Understanding of historical large earthquakes at on-land branches of the
western part of the North Anatolian Fault
Subgroup 5.1: Trenching studies
Subgroup 5.2: InSAR studies
Theme 6: Effective Dissemination of Earthquake Hazard Information
Subgroup 6.1: Earthquake monitoring in the Yalova-Izmit-Bursa-Sakarya area
Subgroup 6.2: Rapid information with collaboration of mass-media
Subgroup 6.3: Hazard and risk assessment with collaboration of administration
Subgroup 6.4: Disaster Education Program
JST superiority object
Istanbul & Local regions around Marmara Sea ⇒ Nationwide in Turkey
Implementing the proposed disaster prevention plan
by Turkish Government
Objective of JST Project
Proposing a Disaster Prevention Plan against Marmara Earthquake
on the basis of scientific research analyses
Awareness training and disaster prevention plan against Marmara Earthquake
100%
Creating reference materials for disaster education and for disaster prevention countermeasures
Visualization
Numerical modelling
Visualization
source region of the
anticipated Marmara earthquake
Evaluation of linkage of the
anticipated Marmara earthquake
based on the estimated source region
Estimation of the source region
Development of rapid
analysis process
Analysis of the anticipated
Marmara earthquake and tsunami
generation process
Development and enlargement
of the numerical simulation
Estimation of fault shapes and fault
brunches beneath the Sea of
Marmara based on integrated data
Integration of land and sea data:
・Shape of fault and bathymetry
・Friction characteristics
・Plate motion velocity
・Historical seismic activity
Integration of the data observed
in (sea bottom) and around
(land) the Sea of Marmara
Preliminary numerical simulation
Of tsunami and earthquake cycle
⇒ extraction of lack of data
Japan-Turkey Joint
seafloor observatory
1. Earthquake Source Model
Improvement of hazard maps
and visualizations
Seismic assessment:
Seismic evaluation considering
retrofitting and seismic isolation
・ Prediction of building Vibration
・ Evaluation of existing structures
Theoretical prediction of
strong ground motion of the
anticipated Marmara earthquake
Estimation of
subsurface
structure
Identification of the vibration
characteristics of buildings
based on design documents
and experimental study
Broadcasting the preliminary
information through mass-media,
telecommunication and internet
⇒Rapid response in the case of
a disaster
80%
Information dissemination
Study Committee
Extraction of necessary
information from rapid analysis
60%
Disaster education program
and organizing the Content
Disaster experience.
Reflect the regional issues
Regional disaster
prevention community
Determine each regions
needs and problems
Microtremor and earthquake
Disaster management
observation in and around the existing
symposium
buildings (schools, hospitals, etc.)
Numerical modeling of the active
Faults beneath the Sea of Marmara
Sharing experiences of earthquake –
On the ground surface
In the building
based on the existing observational data (around the building) 1st Floor and Top Floor tsunami victims from Japan and Turkey
2. Tsunami prediction based
on earthquake scenarios
3. Seismic characterization and
damage prediction
40%
4. Disaster education using
research result visuals
20%
0%
Boğaziçi University
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute
Thank you yThank you...
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