Transcript SCAN & FFMP Design

FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA
FLASH FLOOD MONITORING AND PREDICTION - ADVANCED
A Review for Experienced Users
Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference
Tom Filiaggi
May 2010
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Topics to be covered . . .
•
•
•
•
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Very Basic Overview
Highlights/Strengths
Other things you may not know about FFMP
Possible Future Enhancements (AWIPS2+)
Responsible Individuals
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA
Very Basic Overview
• Ingests precipitation data and guidance data in various
forms (server-side):
– Precip: QPE, QPF
– Guidance: Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ??
– Gridded: Radar polar, lat/lon, HRAP (& derivative)
• Transforms the data into the ‘small hydrologic basin’
world, based on small basin GIS shapefiles (server-side)
• Displays and monitors according to what
configuration the user has defined. This allows for:
– Comparison of accumulation to guidance
– Customizable time frame
– Auto-aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA Very Basic Overview: Display
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA
Highlights/Strengths
• Variable, User-configured Data Source usage
– QPE, QPF, Guidance (Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ++??)
– Grids: Radar polar, lat/lon (& derivative), HRAP (& derivative)
– Individual radars as well as full grid, multi-sourced analyses:
HPE/HPN, Q2/NMQ
• On-the-fly Service Backup implementation
– Independent from D2D or workstation Service backup status
• Drill down to single basin trend detail, when needed
• Virtual Gage Basins (VGB): QPE Source QC
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Split Window
– Combine QPE with QPF, then
compare to guidance
– Brings much more of a predictive
quality to FFMP
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Automated Monitoring
• Customizable
– Color-coded
– Data Sources
– Type choice
• Accum
• Ratio
• Diff
• Filterable
– CWA (Service Backup)
• Time selection
– Rate
– ¼-hour increments
– Max based on purge
• Split Window
– Combine QPE & QPF
then compare to
Guidance
• Value added
– Data gap notice
– Multiple Monitor
conditions
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Forced Guidance
• Applies user-defined
FFG
– Strict override
– Modification(+-)
• For user-defined
‘Guidance’ data
sources
• For a user-defined
period of time
• For a user-defined
area
– County /
– Basin /
– Entire domain
• That is retrievable
• Great for:
– Urban
– Fire scars
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: RFC FFG Update Method
•
Elements of Transition method:
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–
Apply a lag, to eliminate double-counting of precipitation in FFMPA analyses. This lag
will be equal to the Time Frame of the Guidance. (ie: 3-hr Guidance = 3-hr lag).
Apply an hourly interpolation scheme that manages precipitation in a way that greatly
enhances the Guidance values for the transition period and avoids increased under-warn
situations that could exist with a lag-only approach.
3 Hour GFFG - ABRFC Grid 631,330
3
Hourly Precip
2.5
Inches
2
GFFG
1.5
1
GFFG w/3hr delay
0.5
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
3/4 18z
3/4 12z
3/4 6z
3/4 0z
3/3 18z
3/3 12z
3/3 6z
3/3 0z
0
Derived GFFG
(assuming 6hr RFC
FFG update cycle)
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA
Highlights/Strengths
• Auto-aggregation
– Phenomenon scale variability
• Areal
• Temporal
• flash flood vs. river flood
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Things you may not know about FFMPA
• Specific Time Frame
Trends
– Can still view All-times
– QPF interpretation (ie:
Split Window) may be
easier for specific time
frames
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Things you may not know about FFMPA
• Basin Trace
•
•
•
•
Upstream
Downstream
Up & Down
D2D hatch
method not
easy to see
with full color
image
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
Things you may not know about FFMPA
• Ingest Monitor
– Notes health of
data ingest, of
interest to
FFMPA
– User-defined
determination
of “too old”
– HTML Interface
– Special rules
for RADAR
DHR
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA
Possible Future Enhancements
• Enhance Auto-Aggregates:
– Provide trends, maps, better names
• Value-added Trends
– Precip. Frequency: eg: 100-yr mark for 3-hr time frame
– Moving sub-total: eg: moving 3hr accumulation in 24-hr trend
• Basin Trend accumulation plots as steps, not lines
– At least for VGB plots
• Add more recognized and usable grid projections
– Would allow for the use of potentially more Data Sources
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA
Possible Future Enhancements
• Enhance Basin Table:
– Provide area and full upstream area
– Provide full upstream precipitation accumulations
• Provide variable and targeted Z/R management for
WSR88D Data Sources
• Enhance Forced FFG definitions:
– Geo-tool: paint shapes, draw polygons, etc
• Usage at RFCs
– Currently, AWIPS I limitations exist which basically prohibit
FFMP’s use at RFCs
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010
FFMPA Responsible Individuals
• Main Developers
– Tom Filiaggi
- MDL: Lead
[email protected]
– Lingyan Xin
[email protected]
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp
- MDL