Transcript to - Low Emission Strategies

Institute for Transport Studies
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Thursday 7th October 2010
Leeds Low Emission Vehicle Exhibition and Conference
VEHICLE EMISSION MONITORING
AND MODELLING
Dr James Tate
Lecturer (50% Research)
[email protected]
Institute for Transport Studies
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Thursday 7th October 2010
Leeds Low Emission Vehicle Exhibition and Conference
BETTER UNDERSTANDING VEHICLE
EMISSIONS ON THE ROAD:
- Why local air pollution is still a concern
- The benefits of hybrid cars
Dr James Tate
Lecturer (50% Research)
[email protected]
CONTENTS
[1] ASSESSING VEHICLE EMISSIONS: A new approach
a. The on road measurement & categorisation of vehicles & emissions
b. Vehicle emission standards & the traditional lab. testing approach
[2] RESULTS: Trends in UK passenger car on road emissions
a. The on road fleet
b. Emission characteristics
c.
Implications for Low Emission Strategies
[3] OUTLOOK
a.
A rapidly changing vehicle fleet
b.
Future extensions
[1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE
A remote sensing approach
EMISSIONS:
Halifax, Calderdale MBC, October 2009
[1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE
A remote sensing approach
EMISSIONS:
Sowerby Bridge, Calderdale MBC, July 2010
[1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE
A remote sensing approach
EMISSIONS:
Sowerby Bridge, Calderdale MBC, Also July 2010….
[1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE
A remote sensing approach
EMISSIONS:
Vehicle Detector
Camera
(Number plate) (Speed andAcceleration)
Source/Detector
Emissions Analyser
(Common
Configurations)
Mirror Box
Emission measurements:
CO/CO2, NO/CO2, HC/CO2 &
a Particle measure from peak
exhaust plume conc.
Source
Detector
Vehicle Fleet:
Classification from number plate (ANPR)
→Detailed registration information (DVLA)
→Collaboration with www.smmt.co.uk
[1b] VEHICLE EMISSIONS
Laboratory testing
Fig. Chassis dynamometer and exhaust analysing equipment
Technical University of Graz (Austria):
•Light-duty
•Heavy-duty
Engine & Chassis dynos.
[1b] VEHICLE EMISSIONS:
Vehicle operation in the laboratory
20 40 60 80
0
1
Speed (kmh )
120
Fig. Speed profile used for type
approval
purposes (New EU Drive-Cycle)
NEDC
- Speed Profile
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Time (seconds)
Fig. Real-world driving: The Common ARTEMIS Drive Cycle (Andre, 2004).
40
20 30
10
0
1
Speed (kmh )
50
60
ARTEMIS Urban - Speed Profile
0
200
400
600
Time (seconds)
800
1000
1200
1400
[1b] VEHICLE EMISSION
Passenger cars
STANDARDS
NOX
Latest EU directive for Euro 5 and 6 - 2007/715/EC
PM
[1b] ON ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS:
NOX Emissions from Euro 5 Commercial Vehicles
Ligterink et al, 2009, On-road NOx emissions of Euro-V trucks.
TNO report, 2nd December 2009
[2a] RESULTS
Shropshire Council Project
Spring 2010
10 days monitoring (8am – 6pm)
Data collection Enviro Tech plc.
>18 000 records = paired emission + vehicle info.
e.g. vehicle & euro category, weight, size, engine
capacity, manufacturer & model, CO2 rating, etc.
DIESEL
Year registration
Year registration
800
600
200
400
Frequency
600
400
200
0
0
Frequency
800
1000
1000
PETROL
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Date of first registration
2005
2010
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Date of first registration
2005
2010
[2a] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
45
40
Percentage of passenger cars (%)
35
NOTE:
The recommended UK fuel split is
Hybrid
0.20
Petrol (70%) / Diesel (30%)
Petrol
e.g. NAEI & EFT ver 4.2
13.0
30
Diesel
19.8
25
20
15
2.4
24.1
10
20.1
13.1
5
0.01
1.4
1.0
1.0
0
0.1
0.9
2.7
Euro 0
Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro 3
Euro 4
Euro 5
[2a] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
PETROL
DIESEL
Prius
p
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
a E0_petrol
CO2 (grams/km)
[2a] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
300
CO2 (grams/km):
From type approval
drive-cycle (NEDC)
250
200
150
100
Prius
p
Prius
p
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
Kerb Weight (kg)
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
Engine capacity (cc)
1500
a E0_petrol
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
a E0_petrol
Vehicle kerb weight (kg)
[2a] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
Engine capacity (cc)
3500
2000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
1000
500
Prius
p
Prius
p
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
CO(%)/CO2(%) ratio
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
0.005
HC(%)/ CO2(%)
0.15
a E0_petrol
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
a E0_petrol
CO(%)/ CO2(%)
[2b] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
HC(%)/CO2(%) ratio
0.30
0.25
0.010
0.20
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.000
Prius
p
Prius
p
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
NO(%)/CO2(%) ratio
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
0.000
c E2_petrol
0.005
b E1_petrol
PM10 Index
0.015
a E0_petrol
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
a E0_petrol
NO(%)/ CO2(%)
[2a] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
PM10 Index
0.6
0.025
0.5
0.020
0.4
0.3
0.010
0.2
0.1
0.0
TERMINOLOGY
Oxides of Nitrogen
•Nitrogen dioxide emitted directly from vehicle exhausts is termed primary NO2 (p-NO2)
•The proportion of NOX emitted directly as NO2 is the primary NO2 fraction (f-NO2)
•f-NO2 is usually expressed as a percentage (p-NO2/ NOX)
•f-NO2 is rising as a result of:
 Modern diesel exhaust after-treatment systems (particulate traps and diesel oxidation
catalysts) lead to substantial increases in f-NO2
 The ‘dieselisation’ of vehicle fleets across the EU
•PETROL passenger cars: f-NO2 ~ 3% (All Euro categories)
•DIESEL passenger cars f-NO2 ~
►Euro 2 and earlier
11%
►Euro 3
30%
►Euro 4
55%
►Euro 5
55%
►Euro 6
55%
Grice et al, 2009. Recent trends and projections of
primary NO2 emissions in Europe. Atmospheric Env.
43, pp. 2154 - 2167.
&
HBEFA, 2010. Swiss/ German HandBook of
Emission Factors (HBEFA)
Prius
p
Prius
p
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
0.000
e E4_petrol
0.002
d E3_petrol
0.004
c E2_petrol
0.008
b E1_petrol
0.006
NOx(%)/ CO2(%)
Predicted NO2(%)/CO2(%) ratio
a E0_petrol
q LexusRX
Insight
o
n E5_diesel
m E4_diesel
l E3_diesel
k E2_diesel
j E1_diesel
i E0_diesel
f E5_petrol
e E4_petrol
d E3_petrol
c E2_petrol
b E1_petrol
a E0_petrol
NO2(%)/ CO2(%)
[2b] RESULTS
Observed passenger car fleet
Predicted NOX(%)/CO2(%) ratio
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
[2b] SUMMARY
p-NO2 Trends
RESULTS
25
0.00125
f-NO2
NO2(%)/CO2(%)
Forecast
15
0.001
0.00075
10
0.0005
5
0.00025
0
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Average f-NO2 (Passenger cars)
20
Scenario Year
Average NO2(%)/CO2(%) Ratio (Passenger cars)
Forecast
ASSUMPTIONS:
•The 2010 passenger car
fleet petrol/ diesel split and
average NO2 figures,
projected to new vehicles
2011•The number of new vehicles,
assumed to be equivalent to
2009
•Scrappage of older vehicles
not currently considered
Note: Euro 6 Sept 2014-
[2c] IMPLICATIONS
Low Emission Strategies
• Policies to encourage the replacement of older passenger cars with “potentially more
environmentally friendly models” (www.berr.gov.uk) may exacerbate the NO2 problem
E.g. The UK Car Scrappage Scheme
• Boost to the car industry
• Voluntary discount scheme under which motor dealers gave motorists £2,000 or more
towards a new vehicle if they traded in a car or van over 10 years old for scrap between
the 21st October 2009 and the 28th of February
• Number of vehicles scrapped = 400 000
•The scheme has supported replacing older passenger cars (typically petrol engines)
with modern diesel passenger cars that emit more p-NO2
• For all other legislated emissions, the scheme is considered to have been beneficial
NO2/CO2
f-NO2
NOX/CO2
NO/CO2
HC/CO2
CO/CO2
PM10
Proportion DIESEL
Engine capacity (cc)
WEIGHT (kg)
CO2 (grams/km)
Percentage change (%)
(Euro 2 +older VS Euro 4 + newer)
[2c] IMPLICATIONS
E.g. The UK Car Scrappage Scheme
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
[3a] OUTLOOK
Summary
• The UK and EU vehicle fleets are in a period of transition:
– Increasing fleet share of DIESEL passenger cars
– DIESEL passenger cars emit more NO2 directly
– Little expected reduction in the NO2 emissions from Euro 6 DIESELS (2014-)
√ Initial stages of growth for HYBRID and ELECTRIC vehicles
√ Unlike diesels vehicles, HYBRID and ELECTRIC vehicles potentially benefit the
the GLOBAL and LOCAL environment
both
• Vehicle emission models and management policies need to better consider
the composition of the on road vehicle fleet
• NO2 air pollution standards are likely to continue to be exceeded 2015-
• Emission standards and Legislation should be extended to:
► Better represent “real-world” driving conditions
► Include standards for NO2
[3b] OUTLOOK
Research extensions
Regional Group initiative:
• West Yorkshire Transport Emissions Group
• DEFRA funding 2010 - 2011
• Surveys completed in Calderdale MBC July 2010
• Surveys planned in Bradford, Kirklees, Leeds and York: 2010 – 2011
• >25 000 valid records from each Local Authority
• Rich resource to better understand vehicle emissions & inform Low Emission Strategies
Future Research Priorities:
• Inform the development and calibration of emission models
e.g. study the % of failed catalysts in vehicle type sub-categories
• With a larger dataset, study the important Heavy-duty vehicle sub-categories