Crisis Management and Prevention

(Management of Crises in case of Floods and Volcanic Eruptions) Giovanni Marizza [email protected]

14 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,00

Aim of the Module:

• Focusing on Crisis Management in different situations in order to find learned lessons

Crises produced by Floods

Case Studies:

• • • • • • Mediterranean tsunami, 8.000 years ago Vajont dam, 1963 Central Europe, 2002 Asia Tsunami, 2004 Katrina hurricane, 2005 Future, possible events

Crises produced by Floods

Definitions:

• • • • • Flood: big, disastrous accumulation of water Foreseable hurricanes floods: monsoons, cyclons, typhoons, Non-foreseable disasters floods: tsunami, man-made Collateral effects ( short-medium landslides, pollution of rivers,… Collateral effects ( long term): term): alluvional plains

6000 bC

(Pre)historical framework

• • • • • Sumerians and Babilonians producing beer Bosphorus opens, Mediterranean waters invade Black Sea basin Rice cultivation in China Agriculture spreads in Nile valley, Greece, Italy First cattle-farms in the Near/Middle East

According to recent archeological findings:

• • • • • • Huge tsunami in the Mediterranean, Coasts of Sicily, Southern Italy, Albania, Greece, Northern Africa from Tunisia to Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Reason: sinking of 35 km3 of terrain from Etna Volcano after an earthquake, Waves 50m high, at high speed Many neolitic human structures disappeared Bosphorus, Black Sea, TU: Asia or Europe?

1963

Historical framework:

• • • • • • • Reconstruction of Europe after WW2 3 June: Pope Giovanni XXIII dies 16 June: Valentina Tereshkova 1st woman in the Space 28 August, MLK at Lincoln Memorial: “I have a dream!” 22 November: JFK killed at Dallas 12 December: Kenya independent from UK Italy: “economic miracle”

Vajont Dam, 9 October 1963

• • • • • • • hydroelectric plant, aim: energy for Venice and Northeastern Italy Dam: 115 million m3 water of Piave river Landslide: 270 million m3 terrain (Mt Toc) 5 villages destroyed (Longarone

*

2.000 victims +) 2008: “international year of Planet Earth”, Vajont declared “avoidable disaster” failure by engineers and geologists, who didn’t understand what they were doing… Trials ended 10 years later, without serious consequences

*Rommel

Lessons (not) learned:

• • Gaius Valerius Catullus (1st century bC), born in Verona, describes similar events in the same valley

Crisis prevention.

1908, 1925, 1960) Don’t underestimate historical events (landslides in the same area in 1347, 1737, 1748, 1814, 1868,

2002

Historical framework:

• • • • • • • 1 year after 911 and GWOT USA activates Guantanamo prison Netherlands: Pim Fortuyn killed, trial against Milosevic begins Yugoslav Federation becomes Serbia and Montenegro NATO-Russia Council established Turkey abolishes death penalty 1 year before 2nd war in Iraq

Central Europe, 2002

August 2002

“Political” Crisis Management:

• • • • • Flood just before elections in Germany Opinion polls: Chancellor Schroeder losing, Mr. Stoiber winning Ace: picture of Mr. Schroeder in the mud Victory of SPD 2003: GE (+ FR) vs USA, UK about Iraq

Lessons Learned:

• • • • • • European Commission engagement Sinergy between National States and EU European Civil Protection still missing (14 years after the Italian proposal) Public disasters influence elections Without this flood: Chancellor Stoiber, GE (and FR) supporting campaign in Iraq Public disasters influence also international relations, alliances, coalitions, Geopolitics

2004

Historical framework:

• • • • • • 1 February: Saudi Arabia: 250 pilgrims dye at Mecca Asia: chicken flu spreads 11 March: terrorist attacks in Spain Cyprus: failure of referendum about reunification April: Iraq, Abu-Ghraib abuses 1 May: EU incorporates 10 new members

Tsunami, 26 December 2004

energy of 23.000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs

• • 230.000 victims (incl. hundreds in Somalia, 1 in Kenya!) Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Tanzania, Maldives, Madagascar, Somalia, South Africa, Sri-Lanka, Thailand

• • • • 230.000 victims (hundreds in Somalia, 1 in Kenya!) Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Maldives, Somalia, Sri-Lanka, Thailand Damages: 2 billion USD Danger: epidemic diseases

tsunami

Influence on Sri Lanka civil war

• • • • • Tsunami hits mostly Tamil-controlled zones 27.008 victims in Government-controlled areas, 16.656 victims + 18.481 missing in Tamil controlled areas. 16.236 wounded, 578.224 displaced people. Foreigners: 107 victims 4 years after: May 2009, Tamil Tigers defeated (by Government or tsunami?)

Lessons Learned:

• • • • Importance of communications (lack of early warning systems) Natural disasters can influence the final result of wars (example: Waterloo) International aid benefits Governments, not oppositions (example: Sri Lanka) International aid used not only for humanitarian purposes (Sri Lanka, Marshall Plan)

ERP (Marshall Plan)

• • • • •

No Eastern Europe It supported mostly the winners It also supported who didn’t fight It supported who didn’t receive damages Did it support FR, UK nuclear plans? (FR 1952, UK 1960)

2005

Historical framework

• • • • • • • 2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003) Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory military service Viktor Yushenko President of Ukraine Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no USA) 28 March: earthquake off Sumatra 23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims Piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden erupts

Katrina hurricane, 2005

Katrina hurricane, 2005

Winds: 280 km/h

Katrina hurricane, 2005

New Orleans: 2 weeks after

Reasons: -building a big city under the level of sea, between a river and a lake : acceptable 2-3 centuries ago, -building embankments and pumping water: risky idea in NL, bad idea in hurricane-area, NASA 2000: “within 100 years, New Orleans will be the new Atlantis”, -2005: funds for the reinforcement of dams: to Iraqi War, -2004: 94 M$ from hurricanes to GWOT, -Nat Guard: 30% personnel, 50% equipment: in Iraq

Consequences: -thousands of victims, 1 million homeless,

-many oil platforms destroyed, 12 oil refineries out of order, -95% oil and 88% gas produced in the Gulf of Mexico: paralyzed, -energy crisis, -political consequences: USA forced to accept foreign aid, -doubts about Iraqi war, -doubts about US capabilities (war + homeland security?)

A recent example:

“Katrina” hurricane

Solution: NATO Response Force

(again!) Like in Pakistan earthquake

NATO Response Force

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm

Launched at Prague Summit, 2002 Proposed by Mr. Rumsfeld 21.000 troops from Army, Navy, Air Force Aim: oblige European Allies to do more

Lessons Learned:

• • • • • • NRF established for GWOT, employed twice in 12 years, always for humanitarian reasons NRF: keep it ready Natural disasters influence domestic policy Katrina: political, internal consequences for Bush administration (and re-election) Gulf of Mexico: same problems for Mr. Obama?

Natural disasters also influence foreign policy and Geopolitics (Iraq)

Mediterranean, 2020 (?)

•

Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?

•

Events already occurred: -8.000 years ago (the biggest ever), -365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys the coastal zone of Egypt, -1693: submarine earthquake hits eastern coast of Sicily -1831-32: Ferdinandea island / Graham

Ferdinand II Borbone King of Two Sicilies

•

Mediterranean, 2020 (?)

Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?

• Events already occurred: -8.000 years ago (the biggest ever), -365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys coasts of Egypt, -1693: submarine earthquake hits east coast of Sicily -1831-32: Ferdinandea / Graham -1908: Messina earthquake generates a tsunami provoking thousands victims -2002: small tsunami off Stromboli

Marsili, Magnaghi, Vavilov, Cassini, Secchi, Issel, Poseidone, Marchi, Flavio Gioia, Palinuro,…

• www.naturamediterraneo.com

Marsili Flavio Gioia Vavilov

Lessons learned???

Mt. Epomeo, Ischia: a volcano Last eruption: AD 1302

ALARMISM?

SUPERFICIALITY?

Crises produced by Volcanic Eruptions

6 case studies: -Vesuvius, … -Tambora, 1815 -Krakatoa, 1883 -Pinatubo, 1991 -Anatahan, 2005 -Eyjafjallayokull, 2010

79 AD

1631

1760

1794

1872

March 1944

[Picture taken by US troops]

• “These Italians show an apparent indifference, very remarkable, towards the disaster. I expected demonstrations of panic, desperate women, crazy men and children. Nothing at all. People gathered in groups, looking at the slow sacrifice of the village, as it was a casual fire. The doctor of the village interrupted saving some goods of him and showed me a good observation point. There were also some signs of humor” (Manchester Guardian’s envoy, 22 March, 1944)

Lessons NOT learned:

Lessons NOT learned:

1815

Historical framework:

-26 February: Napoleon escapes from Elba, -April: eruption of Tambora volcano, Indonesia, -9 June: end of Vienna Congress (started in Nov 1814), -18 June: Napoleon defeated at Waterloo, -26 September: Austria, Russia, Prussia: Holy Alliance,

Tambora, 1815

-Sumbawa island, 1.000 km far from Jakarta, -10.000 victims immediately, 85.000 later (hunger, disease), -before explosion: 4.000 mt, after: 1.000, -heavy ash: 2,5 million km2 -light ash: huge cloud, athmosphere, stratosphere, up to Europe, America for 2 years -1815: “year without summer” -climatic changes, rainshowers and thunderstorms in Europe and America, famine in Ireland, emigration,

INTERVENTION IN DISASTER RELIEF

napoleone

-18 June: Napoleon unable to employ his Cavalry and Artillery, -tactical result: Napoleon defeated (by Anglo-Prussians or by a volcano?) -strategic result: new world order Major General Giovanni MARIZZA TURIN, April 18th, 2008

Lessons Learned:

-serious consequences, even on the other side of the world, -volcanic eruptions can influence Geopolitics

1883

Historical framework:

-24 May: New York, Brooklin Bridge inauguration, -28 July: earthquake in Ischia: 2.333 victims, -29 July: Benito Mussolini is born, -30 October: treaty between Austria-Hungary and Romania to counter Russian influence in the Balkans,

Krakatoa, Indonesia, 1883

BEFORE AFTER

• The biggest ever eruption in the world, • Biggest ever noise in the history (heard at 5.000 km), • Power: 200 Megatons, • Air waves: 7 times around the world, • Spectacular sunsets everywhere for years

Munch: “Shrijk” (1893)

Lessons Learned:

-still active (last eruption: 1994), -keep distant (not less than 3 km), -biological aspect: life disappeared, after 50 years: 270 new species, -according to experts: a new destructive explosion in the near future (like in 1883, but with a much higher density of population)

1991

Historical framework:

-first call by a GSM cellphone, -9 January: Soviet troops occupy Vilnius trying to stop the independence of Lithuania, -11 January: US Congress authorizes President Bush to attack Iraq, -Gulf war, Iraq launches 45 SCUD missiles on Israel, -1 February: South Africa, end of apartheid, -9 April: Georgia declares the independence, -21 May: India, Rajiv Gandhi killed, -25 June: Croatia, Slovenia independent, -6 August: www, -19 August: coup in USSR, solved by Eltsin, -26 December: URSS disbanded

Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991

-June: eruption, 1.000 dead, 1 million homeless, -US military bases: Subic Bay (75 km from the volcano) and Clark (25 km), -everything transferred to USA, Guam, Okinawa, Hawaii, -Clark Mil Base (633 km2, built in 1903 after the war with Spain) destroyed, -Subic Bay Naval Base to the local Government, -huge ash cloud up to Russia and North America, -in other times: no operations during WWII and Vietnam conflict, -in August 1945: no “Enola Gay” to Hiroshima

Lessons Learned:

-volcanic eruptions influence military operations (projection of power), -volcanic eruptions can change the History,

2005

Historical framework

• • • • • • • • • •

2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003) 10 January: Abu Mazen replaces Arafat Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory military service Karol Wojtyla dies, Josef Ratzinger elected Viktor Yushenko President of Ukraine Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no USA) 28 March: earthquake off Sumatra 7 July: terroristic attacks in London, 23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims Piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden erupts

Anatahan, Pacific, 2005

-200 miles north of Guam, -ash cloud: temporary closure of Andersen Base, Guam, -strategic importance of Guam

Projection of power, 9 out of 15 Mariana Islands have active volcanos (1 eruption every 5 years)

Lessons Learned:

-Andersen Air Base (Guam) in danger like Clark, -USA: “Volcano Hazards Program” (USGS and Southern Methodist University), a 250.000 USD project monitorizing volcanic activities in SE Asia, -creation of an Early Warning System

Eyjafjallayokull, 2010

1940 Battle of England

1944, Montecassino

1945 Dresda

1948-49 Berlin Air Bridge

Lessons Learned:

- volcanic eruptions can influence military operations -… change the outcome of wars, -… endanger civil aviation, -… stop air traffic

Grimsvotn, Iceland May 2011

Suggestions for Thesis:

•

How Crises influence international politics: the case of volcanic eruptions

•

What if? The case of a possible tsunami in the Mediterranean

Crisis Management and Prevention

(Management of Crises in case of Floods and Volcanic Eruptions) Giovanni Marizza [email protected]

14 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,00