Household Energy Demand and Carbon Emission of China in 2020
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Transcript Household Energy Demand and Carbon Emission of China in 2020
A Future Oriented Approach
to China-Japan Relations
For
A talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013
Shunji Cui
Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence, 2012-13
Marian University
A Future Oriented Approach to
China-Japan Relations
1.
2.
3.
4.
The Current State of China-Japan
Relations – Tensions over East China
Sea Disputes
Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?
‘The Drums of War’ or Can it be Avoided?
How do China and Japan Move towards
a Future Oriented Direction?
Fishing Platform/Pinnacle Islands
钓鱼台列屿 / 尖閣列島
Diaoyu/Senkaku (D/S) Islands
A chain of tiny 8 islands
5
uninhabitable
islands,
3 barren rocks
All are volcanic
formations from the
Neocene age
Largest Island
钓鱼台Diaoyutai
(S)
鱼钓岛Uotsurisima(J)
surface area: 3.5 skm.
Geographical Location
120 nautical miles
northeast of Taiwan
200 nm east of PRC
200 nm southwest of
Naha, Okinawa
UN Convention on the
Law of the Sea,1982
Territorial Waters– 12nm
The sovereign territory of
the state
But foreign ships (both
military and civilian) are
allowed innocent passage
through it
Exclusive Economic
Zone—200nm
Control of all economic
resources, including fishing,
mining, oil exploration, and
any pollution of those
resources.
D/S Island Disputes: Downward Spirals?
2012-9-11: Japan’s “nationalization” of 3 of the
Islands
Followed by Chinese maritime surveillance ships
entering into disputed waters – even within 12nm
Small aircraft of China’s State Oceanic Bureau
flew into airspace over the D/S
Japan deploying Airborne Warning and Control
Systems (AWACS)
Global Times (China) argued: “we need to prepare
for the worst”, if Japan not be deterred.
Situation worse than 2005 Possible War?
2012 over Islands row
Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?
Conflictual Claims
Political & Emotional
Japan’s Claim: I
1885~: 10-y survey, terra nullius (land
without owner)
1895-1-14: Meiji Cabinet’s decision to
incorporate the islands into Japanese territory
actual control.
1896-4-1: Placed under the administration of
Ishigaki, Yaeyama District, Okinawa Prefecture
1895-4-17: Signing the Treaty of Shimonoseki
1895-5: the Treaty came to effect.
Japan's Claim: After WWII
1951: The San Francisco Treaty (US-J)
Japan
renounced claims to a number of
territories and islands including Taiwan
the Nansei Shoto (Nansei islands) came
under US trusteeship
1971: the Okinawa reversion deal
Nansei
Shoto returned to Japan
The islands are under Japan’s control
No disputes over the Islands
China is just for oil
China’s Claim: Historical 1
Not
terra nullius , but have been part of its territory
since ancient times.
Historical
Records:
1430, 顺风相送(Fair winds for escort), earliest, a
non-official Chinese navigational record.
1534, 使琉球录, earliest official record of the
Imperial Envoy's Visit to Ryūkyū.
Those
islands served as important fishing grounds
administered by the province of Taiwan.
China’s Claim: Historical 2
1874: Japan took Ryukyu Islands
Japan
took Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) from
China by force when Chinese Qing Dynasty was
involved in several wars with other foreign
countries
However, the Diaoyu Islands still remained under
the administration of Taiwan, a part of China.
1895: The Treaty of Shimonoseki
After
being defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japan
War (1894-95), China ceded Taiwan to Japan
under the Shimonoseki Treaty.
As a part of Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands
belonged to Japan at that time.
China’s Claim: after WWII
Cairo Declaration (1943) & Potsdam
Proclamation (1945)
Taiwan was returned to China at the end of
World War II
The Japanese government accepted the terms
that stated in these documents "...that all the
territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese,
such as Manchuria and Formosa(Taiwan) shall
be restored to the Republic of China.”
Thus, deny the effects of 1951 San Francisco
Treaty (US-J).
Difficulty II: Sovereignty and Beyond
Japan:
Control – No sovereign Issue
Concern of Okinawa
China’s Rise, perceived assertiveness, and
threat
Actual
China:
– reminding its weakness and
humiliation, and Historical injustice in modern
history.
Vulnerable to Nationalist sentiments
US Asian Policy
Emotional
Shared Interests in Deescalating
Their Relations
Economic Impacts (by the end of 2012):
Nissan’s sales in China have fallen 5.3 % to 1.18
million units,
Toyota’s by 4.9 % to 840,000 units,
Japanese direct investment in China fell by almost a
third – (ASEAN looking for opportunity)
Tourism –(2012-9-21)
ANA: nearly 4,000 Japanese canceled their plans to
visit China.
The Japanese National Tourist Association: 20% drop
in numbers visiting Japan from China
Japanese car sales in China in 2012
Source:
China Daily
2013-1-8
Shared Willingness and Efforts
Natsuo Yamaguchi’s meeting with Xi Jinping (in Beijing,
2013-1).
The eighth Tokyo-Beijing Forum (in Tokyo, July 2, 2012).
Dialogue on D/S Island disputes (in HZ, 2012-10)
The International Politics of East Asia and the East
China Sea (in Hangzhou, China, December 14-15,
2012)
To Japan-China Dialogue: Toward a Future Oriented
Japan-China Relationship (in Tokyo, Jnuary 23-24,
2013).
Strong calling for ‘wisdom’ in settling territorial disputes
What Can be Done for A Future
Oriented Relations?
1.
Managing the Disputes
2.
Managing the Great Power Relations
3.
Enhancing People-to-People Relations
1. Managing the Disputes
Understand/Accept the New Reality
1.
2.
China: Japan’s nationalization of Islands
Japan: existing disputes over sovereignty
Shelving the dispute & Searching for joint
cooperation
Fishing;
3.
Energy
No entry into disputed area
Set
up ‘hot lines’ to prepare for contingency
Establish UN Environmental Protection Areas
‘Japan and China have struck a deal for the joint
development of a gas field in the East China Sea,
resolving a protracted bilateral dispute.’
BBC, 18 June 2008
China: Chunxiao Gas Field
2. Managing the Great Power
Relations
China:
Clear
vision of regional/global governance
Stronger demonstration of its Peaceful rise
Japan:
Accepting
China’s rise
US
Policy
of pivot Asia: accommodating China
3. Enhancing People-to-People
Relations
China-Japan: move beyond history –
forward looking
Reconciliation
Kim
Dae-jung examples
Constructing Friendly Relations
Cross-Strait
Example
Identity among people in Taiwan
Thank You !!!