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Annual State of the Energy Industry
United States Energy Association
January 18, 2012
The Future of Coal
Hal Quinn
President & CEO
National Mining Association
Global Growth in Coal Consumption
Source: EIA’s Rising Asian demand drives global coal consumption growth
Asian Growth in Coal Consumption
Source: EIA’s Rising Asian demand drives global coal consumption growth
Global Megatrends
Hyper-Urbanization
Half the population resides in urban
centers today—75% by 2050
Technology
2 billion connected people and 1 trillion
connected objects=more energy
Page 4
Explosion in ‘world middle
class’
Rising middle class in
developing world is shifting
global consumption and supply
patterns
Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
India
Page 5
Brazil
China
Russia
U.S.
New Coal Generation 2011-2015 (GW)
U.S. 8
Europe
16
Other
Asia
27
ROW
16
China
250
India
75
Page 6
• ~400 GW of new coal
generation
• ~1.4 billion tons of new
annual coal supply over
next five years
Global Metallurgical Coal Demand
Growth
• China, India and Brazil steel
intensity in acceleration
stage
~30%
• China largest steel producer
internal met coal production
not keeping pace with
demand
Global Metallurgical Coal Demand
Year
Tons
(Millions)
2010
920
2015
1,185
2020
Page 7
1,140
~60%
• Brazil and India rely on
imports for majority of met
coal needs
Regulatory Accounting
Regulations
Projected Impacts
Retirement
Projection (GW)
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
Analyst
Utility MACT Rule
Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission
81
EVA
51
NERA Economic Consulting
48
GHG Performance Standards
Coal Ash
Cooling Water Intake Structures
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
45-73
North American Electric
Reliability Corporation
33 -77
Environmental Protection
Agency
Page 8
14
Technology Solutions vs. Fuel Bridges