Transcript COA comparison
JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING Course of Action Comparison
Purpose
Define course of action comparison and its role in the crisis action planning process Discuss the associated task steps Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations
References
CJCSM 3500.05, JTF Headquarters Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97 Joint Pub 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, 1 Feb 95 JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 99
C R I S I S
Crisis Action Planning Process
I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III Course of Action Development IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning OPORD Deployment Data Base VI Execution Warning Order Planning Order Alert Order Execute Order AND/OR I Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission II Course of Action Development III Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action
Commander’s Estimate Process
V Commander’s Decision
Why Compare COAs?
To seek the COA that:
Gives our commander the maximum flexibility Limits the enemy commander’s freedom of action Determine which COA has the highest probability of success within the constraints of operational factors
COA Comparison
An Objective Process
– Facilitated discussion led by the chief of plans (J3/J5) – Participants include each of the key staff principles
Four Step Process
– Select governing factors, construct comparison method, compare and record, make recommendation
Task Steps
Determine the Governing Factors
Construct the Comparison Method Do the Comparison and Record Data Recommend a COA to the Commander
Governing Factors
Those dominant factors that appear during analysis and wargaming that clearly favor the friendly or enemy forces
JP 3-0, Pg. B-3
Determine Governing Factors (Comparison Criteria)
Commander’s intent/guidance Fixed values for joint ops such as: – Principles of war & MOOTW – – Fundamentals of joint warfare Elements of operational art Critical factors identified during the analysis such as logistics support, political constraints, etc.
– Often in the form of advantages and disadvantages
Determine Governing Factors
COA Comparison Prerequisites
Eliminate redundant governing factors before you start comparing Determine weighting of the governing factors before you begin comparison Identify all governing factors and define them before you start
Task Steps
Determine the Governing Factors
Construct the Comparison Method
Do the Comparison and Record Data Recommend a COA to the Commander
Construct the Comparison Method
Descriptive Comparison Positive - Neutral - Negative Comparison Simple/Weighted Matrix Comparison
Summarize key points Assist commander in making decisions
Descriptive Comparison
COA ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
COA 1 Narrative or Bulletized Advantages Narrative or Bulletized Disadvantages COA 2 “ “ COA 3 “ “
Positive - Neutral - Negative Comparison
Governing Factors Criteria
Foot Print Simplicity C2 Restraint Perseverance Security Combat Service Support Risk
Totals COA # 1 COA # 2
+ 0 0 0 + 0 0 0 0 0 + + -1
COA # 3
0 + + 0 0 + 0 2
Remarks
Simple Matrix Comparison
Governing Factors Criteria
Foot Print Simplicity C2 Restraint Perseverance Security Combat Service Support Risk
Totals COA # 1
2 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 16 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 15
COA # 2 COA # 3
2 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 17
Remarks
Matrix Comparison With Weighted Governing Factors
Governing Factors
Foot Print Simplicity C2 Restraint Perseverance Security Combat Service Supt Risk
Totals WT.
COA # 1
2 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 16 21 2 1 1 3 3 4 1 6 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 15
COA # 2
2 2 1 1 2 6 1 9 24
COA # 3 Remarks
3 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 17 20 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 3
Matrix ROE
The matrix is merely a tool – Organize thoughts – Synchronize execution The process is more important than the product The matrix is not a substitute for honest analysis and hard work
Task Steps
Determine the Governing Factors Construct the Comparison Method
Do the Comparison and Record Data
Recommend a COA to the Commander
COA Comparison
INPUT
Wargamed COAs Agreed upon governing factors & comparison method
OUTPUT
Information for paragraphs 4 and 5 of Commander’s Estimate – Comparison of friendly COAs – Recommended COA
Task Steps
Determine the Governing Factors Construct the Comparison Method Do the Comparison and Record Data
Recommend a COA to the Commander
Recommend a COA
J5/J3 reviews and records individual staff recommendations Staff determines which COA to recommend – CJTF guidance on criteria weighting reviewed and incorporated In the event of indecision – Staff determines if COA modification would permit decision – J5/J3 consults CoS for guidance or resolution
Lessons Learned or...
“
Ways to Cook the Books
”
Define the governing factors after you start comparing, bending definitions to support the intended COA Add governing factors as you compare to ensure the intended COA wins Have redundant governing factors that measure the same thing and support the intended COA At the end, identify a governing factor that supports the throw-away COA so it does not look one-sided Compare first and then weight the governing factor that supports the intended COA by as much as you need to win in a close one
COA Comparison Summary
Facilitates the commander’s decision process Harnesses the collective wisdom of the most experienced warfighters on the staff Evaluates the key governing factors
If the senior planner knows which COA will be chosen, before you begin comparing, you have not done your job in presenting options to the commander
QUESTIONS?
Determine the Governing Factors Construct the Comparison Method Do the Comparison and Record Data Recommend a COA to the Commander