COA comparison

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Transcript COA comparison

JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING Course of Action Comparison

Purpose

 Define course of action comparison and its role in the crisis action planning process  Discuss the associated task steps  Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations

References

 CJCSM 3500.05, JTF Headquarters Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97  Joint Pub 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, 1 Feb 95  JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 99

C R I S I S

Crisis Action Planning Process

I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III Course of Action Development IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning OPORD Deployment Data Base VI Execution Warning Order Planning Order Alert Order Execute Order AND/OR I Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission II Course of Action Development III Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action

Commander’s Estimate Process

V Commander’s Decision

Why Compare COAs?

To seek the COA that:

 Gives our commander the maximum flexibility  Limits the enemy commander’s freedom of action  Determine which COA has the highest probability of success within the constraints of operational factors

COA Comparison

An Objective Process

– Facilitated discussion led by the chief of plans (J3/J5) – Participants include each of the key staff principles 

Four Step Process

– Select governing factors, construct comparison method, compare and record, make recommendation

Task Steps

Determine the Governing Factors

Construct the Comparison Method Do the Comparison and Record Data Recommend a COA to the Commander

Governing Factors

Those dominant factors that appear during analysis and wargaming that clearly favor the friendly or enemy forces

JP 3-0, Pg. B-3

Determine Governing Factors (Comparison Criteria)

 Commander’s intent/guidance  Fixed values for joint ops such as: – Principles of war & MOOTW – – Fundamentals of joint warfare Elements of operational art  Critical factors identified during the analysis such as logistics support, political constraints, etc.

– Often in the form of advantages and disadvantages

Determine Governing Factors

COA Comparison Prerequisites

 Eliminate redundant governing factors before you start comparing  Determine weighting of the governing factors before you begin comparison  Identify all governing factors and define them before you start

Task Steps

Determine the Governing Factors

Construct the Comparison Method

Do the Comparison and Record Data Recommend a COA to the Commander

Construct the Comparison Method

 Descriptive Comparison  Positive - Neutral - Negative Comparison  Simple/Weighted Matrix Comparison

Summarize key points Assist commander in making decisions

Descriptive Comparison

COA ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

COA 1 Narrative or Bulletized Advantages Narrative or Bulletized Disadvantages COA 2 “ “ COA 3 “ “

Positive - Neutral - Negative Comparison

Governing Factors Criteria

Foot Print Simplicity C2 Restraint Perseverance Security Combat Service Support Risk

Totals COA # 1 COA # 2

+ 0 0 0 + 0 0 0 0 0 + + -1

COA # 3

0 + + 0 0 + 0 2

Remarks

Simple Matrix Comparison

Governing Factors Criteria

Foot Print Simplicity C2 Restraint Perseverance Security Combat Service Support Risk

Totals COA # 1

2 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 16 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 15

COA # 2 COA # 3

2 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 17

Remarks

Matrix Comparison With Weighted Governing Factors

Governing Factors

Foot Print Simplicity C2 Restraint Perseverance Security Combat Service Supt Risk

Totals WT.

COA # 1

2 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 16 21 2 1 1 3 3 4 1 6 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 15

COA # 2

2 2 1 1 2 6 1 9 24

COA # 3 Remarks

3 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 17 20 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 3

Matrix ROE

 The matrix is merely a tool – Organize thoughts – Synchronize execution  The process is more important than the product  The matrix is not a substitute for honest analysis and hard work

Task Steps

Determine the Governing Factors Construct the Comparison Method

Do the Comparison and Record Data

Recommend a COA to the Commander

COA Comparison

INPUT

 Wargamed COAs  Agreed upon governing factors & comparison method

OUTPUT

 Information for paragraphs 4 and 5 of Commander’s Estimate – Comparison of friendly COAs – Recommended COA

Task Steps

Determine the Governing Factors Construct the Comparison Method Do the Comparison and Record Data

Recommend a COA to the Commander

Recommend a COA

 J5/J3 reviews and records individual staff recommendations  Staff determines which COA to recommend – CJTF guidance on criteria weighting reviewed and incorporated  In the event of indecision – Staff determines if COA modification would permit decision – J5/J3 consults CoS for guidance or resolution

Lessons Learned or...

Ways to Cook the Books

 Define the governing factors after you start comparing, bending definitions to support the intended COA  Add governing factors as you compare to ensure the intended COA wins  Have redundant governing factors that measure the same thing and support the intended COA  At the end, identify a governing factor that supports the throw-away COA so it does not look one-sided  Compare first and then weight the governing factor that supports the intended COA by as much as you need to win in a close one

COA Comparison Summary

 Facilitates the commander’s decision process  Harnesses the collective wisdom of the most experienced warfighters on the staff  Evaluates the key governing factors

If the senior planner knows which COA will be chosen, before you begin comparing, you have not done your job in presenting options to the commander

QUESTIONS?

Determine the Governing Factors Construct the Comparison Method Do the Comparison and Record Data Recommend a COA to the Commander