Transcript Socio-technical transitions

Socio-technical transitions:
Multi-level perspective,
pattterns and mechanisms
Prof. Frank Geels
SPRU,
University of Sussex, UK
DTU, 10 May 2010, Copenhagen
Contents
1. Topic of transitions
2. Alternative theories
3. Multi-level perspective
4. Future agenda:
4.1 Differentiation, elaboration
4.2. Mechanisms (agency-related)
5. Conclusions
1. Topic of analysis
Transitions to sustainability
Improvement in
environmental efficiency
Function innovation
= new system
Factor 10
Partial system redesign
Factor 5
System optimimisation
Factor 2
5
10
20
Time horizon (years)
Level of societal functions
Generic
functions
Materials
supply
Energy
supply
(’upstream’)
Intermediary
functions
Housing
End use
(shelter,
functions
(’downstream’) heating)
Business
services
Recreation/
entertainment
Transport
Feeding,
drinking,
cooking
Communication
Personal
care (washing,
clothing,
cleaning)
Health
care
Socio-technical system transitions
R
eg
u
latio
n
san
dp
o
licies
(e.g
.trafficru
les,p
arkin
gfees,
em
issio
nstan
d
ard
s,cartax)
R
o
adin
frastru
ctu
re
an
dtrafficsystem
(e.g
.lig
h
ts,sig
n
s)
M
ain
ten
an
cean
d
d
istrib
u
tio
nn
etw
o
rk
(e.g
.rep
airsh
o
p
s,d
e
S
o
c
io
-te
c
h
n
ic
a
ls
y
s
te
m
fo
rtra
n
s
p
o
rta
tio
n
C
u
ltu
rean
dsym
b
o
lic
Multi-actor process (organizational field)
Supplychain:
* material
* compon
* machin
Production,
industry:
* firms
* engineers,
designers
Research:
* universities
Socio-technical transitions are:
• Multi-actor process
• Co-evolution process (multiple elements)
* Technical changes
* Wider changes, e.g. regulations, user
practice, infrastructure, culture
2. Alternative theories
Dynamics of transitions?
1. Technological substitution models
2. Punctuated equilibrium perspective
3. Long-wave theory
1. Technological substitution
Diffusion
indicator
(e.g. market
share)
‘Old’
technology
(’Goliath’)
New
technology
(’David’)
Time
Problems, shortcomings
• 'Point source' or 'push' approach ('follow the hero')
• David-versus-Goliath storyline
• Decline of existing technology (+ lock-in, inertia) is
taken for granted
• Focus on market, technology.
• No politics, culture, infrastructure, etc.
2. Punctuated equilibrium
(Tushman, Anderson)
Era of ferment:
* Design
Era of incremental change:
competition
* Substitution * Elaboration of dominant desig:
Technological
discontinuity1
Dominant
design1
Era of ferment
Technological
discontinuity2
Time
Dominant
design2
Strength: Conceptualises change and stability
Problems
1. Emergence of radical innovations
unclear (blind, random, ‘genius’)
2. Technology-push character: New
technologies cause ‘era of ferment’
(technological determinism)
3. Mainly technology + markets
No politics, culture, etc.
3. Long-wave theory (Freeman, Perez, Louca)
Dominant
technological system
Dominant methods
and/or organisation
Key factor
Industrial
Revolution
(1770-1830)
Water power, sailing
Manufacturing in
ships, mechanisation in factory
textiles
Cotton, pig
iron
Victorian
Prosperity
(1830-1880)
Steam power, iron
(railway, steamships)
Centrally managed
enterprise, joint stock
companies
Coal, transport
Belle Époque
(1880-1930)
Electricity, heavy
engineering, steel
Standardised parts,
large M-form
corporations
Steel
Golden Age of
Automobiles, aircraft,
growth,
oil, petrochemicals,
consumer society synthetic materials
(1930-1980)
Fordism, Taylorism,
mass production
Energy (oil)
ICT (1980 - ?)
Global enterprise, decentralised
management
Information
(chips, microelectronics)
Computers, software,
telecommunications,
robotics, satellites
Strengths:
• Co-evolution of pervasive technology and society
• Interest in (macro)transitions
• Problems
• Technology-push: Techno-economic does the
‘acting’. Socio-institutional is ‘reacting’
(some Marxist tendencies)
• Emergence of novelty unclear (Big Bang)
Degree of technological maturity
and market saturation
Phase one
Previous
great
surge
Early new
product and
industries.
Explosive
growth and fast
innovations
Phase two
Full
constellation
(new industries,
technology
systems and
infrastructure)
Phase three
Full expansion
of innovation
and market
potential
Phase four
Last new
products and
industries. Earlier
ones approaching
maturity and
market saturation
Next
great
surge
Paradigm
configuration Introduction of successive new products,
industries and technology systems, plus
Big-Bang
modernization of existing ones
Gestation
Around half a century
Lifecycle of a technological revolution (Perez, 2002)
Constriction Time
of potential
3. Multi-level perspective (MLP)
Conceptual backgrounds
• Evolutionary economics
• Science and technology studies (STS)
• Neo-institutional theory
Nested hierarchy (static)
* variation/novelty in niches
* selection at regime + landscape levels
* multi-dimensional + enacted
Increasingstructuration
ofactivities inlocalpractices
L
andscape
System
/regim
e
Regime: inertia, lock-in, path dependence
Economic:
a)vested interests
b)sunk investments (competence, infrastructure)
c)scale advantages, low cost
Social:
a)cognitive routines make ‘blind’ (beliefs)
b)alignment between social groups (‘social capital’)
c)user practices, values and life styles
Power:
a) Opposition to change from vested interests
b) Uneven playing field + policy networks
Analytical problem:
how to overcome lock-in?
Increasingstructuration
ofactivities inlocalpractices
andscape
L
e
/regim
System
Socio-technical’
landscape
Markets, user
preferences
Sociotechnical Industry
regime
Policy
Landscape developments
put pressure on existing regime,
which opens up,
creating windows
of opportunity for novelties
Science
Culture
Technology
S ocio-technical regime is ‘dynamically stable’.
On different dimensions there are ongoing processes
New configuration
advantage of ‘windo
Adjustments occur
Transition processes involve:
1) Internal momentum of niche-innovations
(various processes; SNM)
2) External landscape pressures
3) Tensions in regime  'windows of
opportunity'
Strengths (compared to other theories)
• Radical innovation is socially enacted process
• Selection by regime + landscape
• Selection is multi-dimensional + enacted
• Analyse stability of regime + niche-innovation
journey
• Multiple transition pathways
4. Future agenda
4.1. Differentation, elaboration of MLP
(questioning, adding, reformulating)
Transition pathways
1. Technological substitution
2. Regime transformation (endogenous)
3. Regime reconfiguration
4. De-alignment and re-alignment
1. Technological substitution
Increasing
Landscape
structuration developments
of activities
in local
practices
Sociotechnical
regime
Specific shock
Markets, user
preferences
Industry
Science
Policy
Culture
Technology
Nichelevel
Time
2. Transformation pathway
Increasing
structuration
of activities
in local practices
Landscape
developments
Landscape pressure
Socio-technical
regime
Adoption of
symbiotic
niche-innovation
Niche level
Time
3. Reconfiguration pathway
Landscape level
Regime/systems
level
Niche level
1) Novelties emerge in technoscientific niches in context
of stable system architecture
2) Diffusion and adoption
of innovations in
existing system
3) Reconfiguration of
elements leads to
new system architecture
4. De-alignment and re-alignment
Increasing
structuration
of activities
in local
practices
Landscape
developments
Markets, user
preferences
Socio- Industry
technical
regime Policy
Science
Culture
Technology
Niche-level
Time
Possible additional pathways
What if we focus on multiple regimes?
1. From one regime to multiple regimes
(specialization, differentiation)
2. From multiple regimes to one regime (e.g. ICT)
3. Linking multiple regimes through niches (biofuels,
CHP, BEV)
4. ?????
Other patterns
1. Add-on and hybridization
2. Fit-stretch pattern
3. Hype-disappointment cycles
4. Niche-accumulation pattern
1. Add-on and hybridization
Rising Star (1822)
Comet (1812)
Great Britain (1843)
Great Eastern (1858)
2. Fit-stretch pattern:
• Changing beliefs about form and function
• Learning, negotiation, debate
Technical novelty + showing off (1880s)
Daimler’s horseless carriage (1885)
Electric car (1880s)
used in parks, promenading
Adventure machine (1895-1910): Racing + touring
Mercedes from 1901.
Utilitarian automobile (1910-1920)
Practical use by professionals (not 'fun',
pleisure)
T-Ford (1908): strong, sturdy, cheap
Multifunctional automobile (1920-1940)
* Commuting
* Tourism
* Professions
3. Hype-disappointment cycles (Gartner)
Visibility of
technology
(in media,
societal debate,
politics)
Peak of inflated
expectations/hype
Slope of gradual
improvements
Trough of
disillusionment/backlash
Technology
trigger
Time/maturity
of technology
Hype-cycles in debates of ‘green’ car propulsion systems
Visibility in
societal and
policy debates
Battery-electric
Fuel cell
Hybrid-electric
Biofuel
Battery-electric
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
4. Niche-accumulation pattern
Technology A
Technological
niche X
Market niche Y
Example of cars
Market niche Z
Steamship niche-trajectory
First steamboat experiments (1880s, 1890s)
Steam tug Transport of passengers and high-value
in harbours cargo on inland waterways (1807)
(1810s)
Transport of passengers and high-value cargo
on coastal waters and small seas (1820s)
Navy (anti-pirate ships on Colonial
waters, mail carriage) (1820s)
Subsidised mail transport
on oceans (1838)
First-class passenger transport
on oceans (late 1840s)
Oceanic freight transport
China tea
trade (1865)
India trade (1869)
Passenger transport on oceans
(all classes) (mid-1850s)
Navy (iron steamships
for fighting) (1860s)
4.2. Agency and mechanisms
• Cartel of fear (first-mover risks)
• Innovation race (Totota Prius)
• New entrants overthrow established firms
• Sailing ship effect
The Thomas Lawson (1902-1907)
More to be done on:
• Cultural framing (legitimacy)
• Power struggles + strategic games (social
movements, corporatist networks, political
economy)
• ?????
5. Conclusions
MLP produced useful insights for:
* long-term and large scale processes
* stability and change
* dynamics, patterns, mechanisms
* multi-actor + multi-dimensional
But is ongoing research program.
Constructive criticism,elaboration welcome + needed.
Ad 1) Momentum of niches
Economic perspectives:
a) Learning by doing
b) Increasing returns to adoption (scale, network externalities),
c) Strategic games between firms, innovation races, bandwagon effects
Sociological perspectives (socio-cognitive):
a) Contagion effects, critical mass, tipping points,
b) Cognitive and socio-political legitimacy ('liability of newness'), discourses,
social movements,
c) Self-fulfilling prophecies, expectations, visions that make themselves come
true
Power and politics:
a) Power struggles in market (standard-battles, strategic alliances, patent
barriers),
b) Opposition from societal actors, stakeholders (risk, vested interests, negative
externalities)
c) Policy: Adjustments in regulations, investment in infrastructure, lobbying in
policy networks