Transcript Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire

Buckinghamshire County Council
Demographic and Deprivation
Change in Buckinghamshire
Marcus Grupp
Holly Pedrick
Policy, Performance and Communications
Buckinghamshire County Council
Purpose
• To provide an update as to the changes underway
in the Bucks population
• To consider how the information can be used to
shape services
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: births
2.2
2.1
•
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
TFR
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
2001
2004
2007
2010
• TFR increasing – 2.1 children per woman (England similar)
• Increases FR for all women key child bearing age (not under 20s and 40+)
• Rising births – 11% higher since 2001 (+600 yr)
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: births - deaths
• Births - constant TFR (2.10) = 500 extra births annually
• Deaths - constant 4k per year
• Natural increase in population due to more births than deaths
8,000
Natural population change
6,000
8,000
4,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
1991
-2,000
0
1991
-2,000
2001
2011
2021
-4,000
2001
-6,000
2011
2021
Births (main proj)
Births (2.10 TFR)
-4,000
Deaths
-6,000
Births
Natural Change
Natural Change
Births (2.10 TFR)
Natural Change (2.10 TFR)
Deaths
Nat. Change (2.1)
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: age structure of population
2021
2011
80+
19,838
more
people
(33%)
70-79
More
pensioner
houses
60-69
50-59
40-49
4,519 less
people (-1%)
Less
families
8,031 less
young people
(-6%)
Less
young
people
30-39
20-29
10-19
0-9
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Modelled births (could be 5k higher with 2.1 TFR)
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: housing
•
Household size = falling
– 2.47 people per house (2011) to 2.32 (2026)
– 2.32 causes current population (510k) to fall by 21k (4%), but
– 15k new builds allocated creates a net rise 4k people (514k) by 2026
•
Uncertainty in AVDC - 15k homes to keep workforce constant (2006-2031)
– extra 4,500 to 13,500 homes not currently allocated (AVDC)
•
Number of houses affects net migration ...
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: migration
•
Lots movement in population (6% of Bucks population)
– UK migration
– 27k move in / 26k leave
– Overseas migration – 3.9k move in / 3.7k leave
Net Migration
Buckinghamshire County Council
What does this mean for Bucks…
•
Small population increase - 1.2%
– aging population
– ‘low’ number of new builds
% change - 2011 to 2026
Clear aging population
100%
•
Uncertainty around CYP numbers
– 9k less 0-15’s (1.9 TFR)
– No change 0-15’s (2.1 TFR)
80%
60%
40%
•
Housing
– 15,000 less working age
– More allocations by AVDC?
Uncertainty due to TFRs and
houses builds
20%
0%
-20%
0-15 yrs
*
16-19 yrs
20-64 yrs
65-84 yrs
85+ yrs
Buckinghamshire County Council
Locality differences
Population Changes
2011 to 2026
-12% to -7%
Get rid of decimals on legend
3% to 7%
•
Increasing populations:
– Urban
– stable births and deaths
– net in-migration increase
– house builds 2.5 x higher
•
Decreasing populations:
– rural
– aging population, more deaths
– falling births
– Lowest rate of house builds
Buckinghamshire County Council
Deprivation Issues and People at Risk
•
•
•
•
9% of children live in families in receipt of out of work benefits (9.4k)
– More families experience income deprivation in areas classified as
deprived by IMD
6% of children receive free school meals (4.4k)
– Worse educational outcomes for these pupils
Overall educational attainment is 65%
– Most affluent ACORN groups 2.5x higher than least affluent groups
Higher proportion of BME population in deprived areas
– Worse education outcomes overall (Early years and KS1, 2 and 4) and
youth offending
Buckinghamshire County Council
Deprivation Issues and People at Risk
•
•
•
•
•
•
7.4% of babies born were classed as low birth weight (national average 7.6%)
– Higher percentage of babies with low birth weight in IMD most deprived
areas
Increasing birth rate
– Birth rate twice as high among the IMD most deprived areas than least
deprived areas
People who are affluent are less likely to become deprived
– Current HP / MM areas previously classed as HP, MM, SS/PP, SF and UP
356 Looked After Children (LAC) in Bucks (2010)
– LAC 2x higher in IMD deprived LLSOA’s (0.62% v’s 0.31% of under 18s)
– 60% LAC from Moderate Means / Hard Pressed areas (4x ave. MM, 7x HP )
45% of children have experienced bullying
– Pupils from Hard Pressed and Urban Prosperity (town) areas are most
affected
90 young women referred to ‘RU Safe’ (2009-2010)
– Higher risk of sexual exploitation for those who go missing frequently or live
in care
11
Buckinghamshire County Council
Index of Multiple Deprivation (2010)
High Wycombe
Seven IMD Domains
1. Income Deprivation
2. Employment Deprivation
3. Health Deprivation and Disability
4. Education, Skills and Training Deprivation
5. Barriers to Housing and Services
6. Crime
7. Living Environment Deprivation
Aylesbury
Buckinghamshire County Council
Number of people at risk
• Multiple issues are experienced by those most in need
• Large number people affected and getting worse - 4% population
IMD
No. of 30% most deprived areas (English scale)
5,000 children aged 0-15
14
18,800 people
12
10
13,100 people
8
6
4,700 people
4
2
0
2004
2007
2010
Buckinghamshire County Council
Hard Pressed and
Moderate Means
ACORN Variables
• Age quartiles
• Ethnicity
• Type of employment
• Level of qualifications
• Socio economic classification
• Commute method
• Type of residential dwelling
• Number of cars per household
• Property owner or renter
• Rooms and population per household
Buckinghamshire County Council
Hard Pressed and
Moderate Means
• Only half of those affected are
in Aylesbury & Wycombe
Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households
Urban
Market
Town
Rural
Isolated
Total
Number of
Households
20,575
12,634
2,317
661
36,187
Percentage of
Households
57%
35%
6%
2%
100%
Isolated not shown on map
Buckinghamshire County Council
Hard Pressed and
Moderate Means
• Only half of those affected are in
Aylesbury & Wycombe
• Over 1/3rd in Market Towns
Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households
Urban
Market
Town
Rural
Isolated
Total
Number of
Households
20,575
12,634
2,317
661
36,187
Percentage of
Households
57%
35%
6%
2%
100%
Isolated not shown on map
Buckinghamshire County Council
Hard Pressed and
Moderate Means
• Only half of those affected are in
Aylesbury & Wycombe
• Over 1/3rd in Market Towns
• 1 in 10 in rural / isolated
Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households
Urban
Market
Town
Rural
Isolated
Total
Number of
Households
20,575
12,634
2,317
661
36,187
Percentage of
Households
57%
35%
6%
2%
100%
Isolated not shown on map
Buckinghamshire County Council
Number of households at risk
ACORN
Moderate Means / Hard Pressed Households
38,000
36,000
15.7k households are
MM / HP families
34,000
32,000
Change (2008-2011)
• +29% Hard Pressed
• -8% Moderate Means
• + 12% Both groups
30,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
Buckinghamshire County Council
Key Issues
•
Recent unpredicted rise in TFR – more children
•
Falling household size – uncertainty of new house builds in AVDC
•
Reduction in population aged 0 – 15, but if new TFR remains constant then
there will be no overall change
•
Children and families in areas at risk of deprivation are at a greater risk of
experiencing certain issues e.g. LAC
•
Large number of children and families living in areas where people
experience a range of deprivation issues
•
Around half of all areas at risk of deprivation are not in the urban areas in
Bucks
•
How can this information be used to better shape services?