Transcript Telemarketing

Agent-Based Modeling
and Simulation
(ABMS)
Bertan Badur
[email protected]
Department of
Management Information Systems
Boğaziçi University
Thetelemarketer Model
• Chapter 13, 14, of Agent-Based and IndividualBased Modeling: A Practical Introduction, by S.
F. Railsback and V. Grimm
• NetLogo User Menual
Outline
•
13.
4. The Telemarketer Model
• ODD Description
• Purpose
• Entitie, States Variables, and Scales
– patches – poterntial customers
• called in one time step – boolean – color black or red
– turtles – telemarketers
• location – xcor, ycor
• size – staff, telephone,...
• bank-balance – money
– Time – weeks 200 steps
– no wraping in x and y, max-x 200, max-y 200
NetLogo Code
globals [n-telemar]
turtles-own [bank-bal]
to setup
ca
set n-telemar 200
crt n-telemar [
set bank-bal 0.0
]
reset-ticks
end
to go
tick
if ticks > 200 [stop]
end
Process Overview and Scheduling (1)
• For actions in each time step
• First: set calling “no” – with a color
• Second: sales – make sales
– order is important – each time random
– call customers in radius proportional with size
– if a customer not called previously in the same week
– then buy
– else not buy
Process Overview and Scheduling (1)
• Third: accounting
–
–
–
–
–
revenue form sales
fixed cost proportionla with size
update bank balance
updete size if bank balance is high enough
die if bank balance is lessw then 0
• Forth: output
– marketers in business at each time
– size distribution and total sales
NetLogo Code - go
to go
tick
if ticks > 200 [stop]
ask patches [set pcolor black]
ask turtles [
sales
account
]
output
end
NetLogo Code - submodels
to sales
end
to account
end
to output
end
Design Concepts
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Basic principles
Emergence
Adaptive behavior
Prediction
Sensing
Interraction
Stochasticity
Observation
Initialization
• Telemarketers:
–
–
–
–
–
bank balance 0.0
size 1.0
color random
lacation random
chape circle
• Potential customers:
– called no – color black
NetLogo code
to setup
ca
set n-telemar 200
crt n-telemar [
set bank-bal 0.0
set sıze 1.0
setxy random-xcor random-ycor
set shape "circle"
]
ask patches [
set pcolor black
]
reset-ticks
end
Submodels - sales
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radius: 10 times square root of size
max number of calls: 100 times size
if potential cust > nax number of calls
select nax number of calls of them
else
select all of them
if poterntial customer is not called
sell to the poterntial customers
change its call to yes – color to red
NetLogo code - sales
to sales
let radius 10 * sqrt sıze
let max-call floor ( 100 * sıze )
let pot-custs patches in-radius radius
if count pot-custs > max-call
[ set pot-custs n-of max-call pot-custs ]
ask pot-custs [
if pcolor = black
[ set pcolor red ]
]
end
.
Submodels - account
•
•
•
•
•
cost: 50 times size
income: 2 times succesful sales
update bank balance
if bank balance is greater then growth param
bank balance – growth param is used to increase
size
• size is added: excess money times 0.001
• if size less then zero
• the telemarketer goes out of business
NetLogo code - updates
globals [n-telemar growth-param size-param ]
turtles-own [bank-bal n-sales]
to setup
ca
set growth-param 1000
set size-param 0.001
• add tot the sales
set n-sales count pot-custs with [pcolor = black]
...
NetLogo code - account
to account
let cost 50 * sıze
let income 2 * n-sales
set bank-bal bank-bal + income - cost
if bank-bal > growth-param [
set sıze sıze + size-param * ( bankbal - growth-param )
set bank-bal 1000
]
if bank-bal < 0 [ die ]
end
Submodels - output
• number of telemarketers
• size and bank balance distribution
• add a ploter
plot count turtles
5. Direct Interraction: Mergers in the
Telemarketing Model
• update balance depends on have a parent or not
• if bank balance less then zero and not have a
parent
• select a parent with
•
size greater then ist own size and
•
bank balance greater then its deficit
• or go out of business
• if balance < 0 and have a parent
• get subsidize or die
netLogo code – account modififed
to account
let cost 50 * sıze
let income 2 * n-sales
let profit income - cost
ifelse parent != nobody
[ set bank-bal bank-bal + 0.5 * profit
ask parent [set bank-bal 0.5 * profit ]
]
[ set bank-bal bank-bal + profit ]
if bank-bal > growth-param [
set sıze sıze + size-param * ( bank-bal growth-param )
set bank-bal 1000
]
netLogo code – account modififed
if bank-bal < 0 and parent != nobody [
output-show parent
let bank-bal-par [bank-bal] of parent
ifelse bank-bal-par > ( -1 * bank-bal )
[ ask parent [set bank-bal bank-bal + [bankbal] of myself ]
set bank-bal 0.0
]
[die stop]
]
netLogo code – account modififed
if bank-bal < 0 and parent = nobody [
let pot-parents other turtles with [
sıze > [sıze] of myself and bankbal > -1 * [bank-bal] of myself ]
ifelse any? pot-parents [
set parent one-of pot-parents
ask parent [set bank-bal bank-bal +
[bank-bal] of myself ]
set bank-bal 0
]
[die stop]
]
end
updates
turtles-own [bank-bal n-sales
parent]
crt
to setup
...
crt n-telemar [
...
set parent nobody
Using links to reach parents
• if aparent set a directed link
NetLogo code -account
to account
let cost 50 * sıze
let income 2 * n-sales
let profit income - cost
ifelse any? my-out-links
[ set bank-bal bank-bal + 0.5 * profit
ask one-of out-link-neighbors [set bank-bal 0.5 * profit ]
]
[ set bank-bal bank-bal + profit ]
if bank-bal > growth-param [
set sıze sıze + size-param * ( bank-bal - growth-param )
set bank-bal 1000
]
NetLogo code -account
if bank-bal < 0 and any? my-out-links [
let bank-bal-par [bank-bal] of one-of out-link-neighbors
ifelse bank-bal-par > ( -1 * bank-bal )
[ ask one-of out-link-neighbors [set bank-bal bank-bal +
[bank-bal] of myself ]
set bank-bal 0.0
]
[die stop]
]
NetLogo code -account
if bank-bal < 0 and not any? my-out-links [
let pot-parents other turtles with [
sıze > [sıze] of myself and bank-bal > -1 * [bank-bal] of
myself ]
ifelse any? pot-parents [
create-link-to one-of pot-parents
ask one-of out-link-neighbors
[set bank-bal bank-bal + [bank-bal] of myself ]
set bank-bal 0
]
[die stop]
]
end
6. The Customers Fight Back: Remembering
Who Cslled
• custmers talernce limit
• if cals from a marketer exceeds taht limit
• reject call
NetLogo code - sales
to sales
let radius 10 * sqrt sıze
let max-call floor ( 100 * sıze )
let pot-custs patches in-radius radius
if count pot-custs > max-call
[ set pot-custs n-of max-call pot-custs ]
set pot-custs pot-custs with [pcolor = black]
set pot-custs pot-custs with [ accept-call myself]
set n-sales count pot-custs
ask pot-custs [ set pcolor red ]
end
NetLogo code – accept-call
to-report accept-call [marketer]
let num-calls length filter [? = marketer] callerlist
set caller-list fput marketer caller-list
report num-calls <= tol-lim
end
NetLogo code – initilalizations
patches-own [caller-list tol-lim]
to setpu
...
ask patches [
set pcolor black
set tol-lim 5 + random 16
set caller-list []
]
end