Transcript Alberta Physician Workforce Planning 2014 (Dr. R. Nichol)

Alberta Physician Workforce
Planning 2014
Rollie Nichol MD, MBA
Associate Chief Medical Officer, AHS
January 8, 2014
Agenda
1. Introduction and Goal of interaction
2. Curiosity
 What do you want to know?
3. Goal of workforce planning
4. Alberta Process
5. Provincial PRPC
6. AHS Data
7. Summary
8. Questions/dialogue
2
Goal of Provincial Workforce Planning
1. Predict and define Demand
 Short and long term
 Scenarios
2. Predict and define endogenous supply
 Manage societal investment
 Collaborate with faculties
 Minimize “market asynchrony”
3
Alberta Process
1. Provincial PRPC (Physician Resource Planning
Committee)
 Episodic (past)
 Sustainable (current)
2. Alberta Health Services
 Service provider and recruiter (appointed docs)
3. Faculties
 Curriculum, training and recruiting
4
PRPC
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Provincial perspective
Multi- stakeholder
Policy level
Government funder of training programs
2 software planning tools
 Family physician (AH)
 Specialist (AHS)
6. Alignment with Non-MD Workforce and Capital
Planning
5
Practitioner Workforce Planning in Alberta
Government of Alberta
Royal College of Physician
and Surgeons Canada
University of Alberta &
University of Calgary
Academic &
Clinical Training
College of Physicians
and Surgeons of Alberta
IMG Practice
Entry
PARA
Medical
School
Enrolment
Residents
Training
in Alberta
Alberta
Health
Services
Alberta
Medical
Association
Community
Practice
Specialist
Practice
Alberta Trained
Undergrads
Training
elsewhere
CMA
Nursing
and Allied
Health
Providers
Remote
Area
Practice
Rural
Practice
Rural
Physician
Action
Plan
Municipalities
6
AHS Data
7
2012 Alberta Physician Demographics
Family Medicine Physicians
Specialists
Region
Total
2012
Physicians
per 100,000
Population
Physicians
Percentage
Average Percentage
Percentage
Total per 100,000 Average Percentage Canadian
Age
Female Canadian Trained 2012 Population
Age
Female
Trained
Alberta
4326
112
48.5
40.3%
60.6%
4204
48.3
48.3
30.2%
74.8%
Canada
38156
109
50.1
42.4%
72.9%
36986
50.8
50.8
32.2%
77.3%
Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012
8
Recent Recruiting Experience
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-13
Net Change
South Zone
476
484
8
Calgary Zone
3578
3815
237
Central Zone
600
620
20
Edmonton Zone
3260
3379
119
North Zone
464
471
7
Alberta
8378
8769
391
9
3 Year Projection
TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and
Zone (2013-2016)
Department
Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL
ZONES
Addictions and Mental Health
83.0
Anesthesia
25.0
Cardiac Sciences
22.0
Clinical Neurosciences
36.0
Critical Care Medicine
15.0
Diagnostic Imaging
31.0
Emergency Medicine
88.0
Family Medicine
Family Medicine with Special Skills (eg
Anesthesia, Obstetrics, Surgery)
421.5
18.0
10
3 Year Projection
TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone
(2013-2016)
Department
Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL
ZONES
Medicine/Internal Medicine
119.0
Obstetrics & Gynecology/ Women's Health
22.0
Oncology
29.0
Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
39.0
Pediatrics/Child Health
70.0
Rural Medicine
76.0
Surgery
135.0
TOTAL
1229.5
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Summary
1. We need better forecasting methodologies
2. We need to be better at planning
 Accounting for changes in technology, service
planning, societal needs
3. We need to give better information to you but this is
only one, albeit significant, factor in your decision
process
12
Dilbert
13
LINKS
http://www.albertaphysicianlink.ab.ca/physician-jobs.html
http://www.doctorjobsalberta.com/
http://www.cma.ca/c3pr-specialties
http://www.cair.ca/en/tips/
14
Final Slide
1. Review questions posed at beginning
2. Any other questions/ comments/ curious
thoughts
15
2012 Alberta Physician Demographics
Family Medicine Physicians
Specialists
Region
Physicians
Physicians
Percentage
Total per 100,000 Averag Percentage
Percentage
Total per 100,000 Averag Percentag Canadian
2012 Population e Age
Female Canadian Trained 2012 Population e Age e Female
Trained
Calgary Zone
1747
120
48.6
49.1%
66.7%
1867
128
48
32.9%
79.8%
Central Zone
Edmonton
Zone
428
92
50
25.0%
42.1%
166
36
50.1
19.3%
66.3%
1468
120
48.6
39.5%
65.1%
1875
153
48.2
30.1%
73.6%
North Zone
377
85
47
27.3%
33.1%
101
23
49
20.8%
43.6%
South Zone
287
100
47.8
30.3%
64.8%
186
65
52.3
16.7%
61.6%
Unknown
19
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Alberta
4326
112
48.5
40.3%
60.6%
4204
48.3
48.3
30.2%
74.8%
Canada
38156
109
50.1
42.4%
72.9%
36986
50.8
50.8
32.2%
77.3%
Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012
16
Specialist Forecasting Tool (Need)
Population
(Growth, Aging,
Gender, Referral,
Geography)
Leadership
and Admin
Clinical
Programs
NEED
ASSESSMENT
Utilization
/ Demand
Disease
incidence &
prevalence
Standards,
Policy,
CPGs
Academic
Programs
Access
17
Specialist Forecasting Tool (Supply)
Roster
Profile
(Clinical &
Academic)
FTE and
Productivity
Age and
Gender
Benchmarks
Physician
Supply
(current)
Specialty
& Special
Interest
Separations
(Retire,
leave,
change)
Net InterProvincial
Migration
18