Transcript The Complete IDC Intelligence Solution

Welcome To The 40th
HPC User Forum
Meeting
Beijing, China
October 2010
Agenda: Welcome
• Welcome by our host: The Beijing Computing
Center
• IDC welcome and HPC User Forum background:
Vernon Turner, Earl Joseph and Steve Conway
• IDC HPC Market Overview: Jie Wu and Earl
Joseph
Introduction: Logistics
We have a very tight agenda (as usual)
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Please help us keep on time!
Review handouts
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Note: We will post most of the presentations on
the web site
HPC User Forum Goals
• Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing,
technical and business problems
• Provide a forum for exchanging information, identifying
areas of common interest, and developing unified
positions on requirements
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By working with users in other sectors and vendors
 To help direct and push vendors to build better products
 Which should also help vendors become more successful
• Provide members with a continual supply of information
on:
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Uses of high end computers, new technologies, high end best
practices, market dynamics, computer systems and tools,
benchmark results, vendor activities and strategies
• Provide members with a channel to present their
achievements and requirements to interested parties
HPC User Forum Mission
To Improve The Health Of The
High-performance Computing Industry
Through Open Discussions, Informationsharing And Initiatives Involving
HPC Users In Industry, Government And
Academia
Along With HPC Vendors
And Other Interested Parties
Steering Committee Members
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Steve Finn, BAE Systems, Chairman
Sharan Kalwani , KAUST, Vice Chairman
Earl Joseph, IDC, Executive Director
Vijay Agarwala, Penn State University
Alex Akkerman, Ford Motor Company
Doug Ball, The Boeing Company
Rupak Biswas NASA/Ames
Paul Buerger, Avetec
Steve Conway, IDC Research Vice President
Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute
Jeff Broughton. NERSC/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Merle Giles, NSCA/University of Illinois
Chris Catherasoo, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
James Kasdorf, Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center
Doug Kothe, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Paul Muzio, City University of New York
Michael Resch , HLRS, University of Stuttgart
Marie-Christine Sawley, ETH Zurich - CERN Group
Vince Scarafino, Industry Expert
Robert Singleterry, NASA/Langley
IDC HPC
Market Update
Top Trends in HPC
The global economy in HPC appears to have leveled off
 The first half of 2010 grew by 2%
 We are forecasting 3% to 5% growth in 2010
 The high end of the market grew by 65% in 2009!
Major challenges for datacenters:
 Power, cooling, real estate, system management
 Storage and data management continue to grow in importance
Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users
 Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems
 Application scaling and performance is a problem
SSDs will gain momentum and could redefine storage
GPUs are seeing real tractions in certain verticals
The worldwide Race on Petascale is in full speed
HPC Server Market Size By Competitive
Segments (first half of 2010)
HPC
Servers
$4,131M
Workgroup
(under $100K)
$699M
Supercomputers
(Over $500K)
$1,386M
Divisional
($250K - $500K)
$572M
Departmental
($250K - $100K)
$1,474M
HPC Market Results:
Revenues and System Units
Segment
Supercomputer
Divisional
Departmental
Workgroup
Grand Total
Segment
Supercomputer
Divisional
Departmental
Workgroup
Grand Total
Q110
Revenue ($K)
Q210
Revenue ($K)
Sequential
Growth
669,521
273,753
688,785
372,914
716,725
298,033
784,900
326,041
7.1%
8.9%
14.0%
-12.6%
2,004,973
2,125,700
6.0%
Q110
Shipments
Q210
Shipments
Sequential
Growth
527
865
4,094
20,987
703
945
4,762
21,592
33.4%
9.2%
16.3%
2.9%
26,473
28,002
5.8%
HPC Vendor Revenue Shares, Q210
NEC
0.8%
Cray
Dawning 0.4%
0.6%
Hitachi
0.5%
Other
10.4%
HP
33.3%
Bull
0.9%
Appro
1.2%
SGI
2.3%
Fujitsu
1.6%
Sun
2.2%
Dell
16.2%
IBM
29.5%
Revenue Share by Vendor
Supercomputer Segment, Q210
Fujitsu
0.3%
Sun
0.8%
Bull
NEC
Appro
2.6%
SGI 1.3% 0.2%
2.1%
Cray
1.3%
Other
1.8%
HP
27.4%
Dell
5.0%
IBM
57.2%
HPC Server Processor/Sockets
Metrics, First Half of 2010
CPU Type System ASP($K)
Ave.
CPUs/System
$(K)/CPU
CPUs /$M
69.1
25
2.7
364
EPIC
219.5
25
8.8
114
RISC
120.3
15
7.9
126
Vector
647.9
12
54.0
19
x86-64
Total HPC Revenue Share by Processor Type
Source IDC, 2010
Total HPC Revenue by OS
100%
90%
HPC revenue share by O/S
80%
70%
60%
Linux rev.
50%
Unix Rev.
40%
W/NT Rev.
30%
20%
10%
0% 2010
Source IDC,
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Industry/Application Segments
Worldwide HPC Revenues ($M)
2008
Bio-Sciences
$1,412
CAE
$1,131
Chemical Engineering
$238
DCC & Distribution
$572
Economics/Financial
$281
EDA / IT / ISV
$751
Geosciences and Geo-engineering
$570
Mechanical Design and Drafting
$112
Defense
$920
Government Lab
$1,460
University/Academic
$1,852
Weather
$392
Other
$80
Total Revenue
$9,772
2009
$1,120
$874
$179
$460
$198
$540
$539
$73
$849
$1,349
$1,641
$353
$78
$8,252
HPC Server Revenue($K) Forecast
2008 - 2014
WW HPC Server Forecast, 2009 - 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CAGR
2014 (09-14)
Supercomputer
3,369,410 3,624,352 3,879,294 4,134,237 4,389,179 4,617,522
6.5%
Divisional
1,070,764 1,129,694 1,188,625 1,247,555 1,306,485 1,366,596
5.0%
Departmental
2,516,253 2,698,090 2,879,928 3,061,765 3,243,602 3,479,978
6.7%
Workgroup
1,680,687 1,787,410 1,894,133 2,000,856 2,107,579 2,242,167
5.9%
Total
8,637,114 9,239,547 9,841,980 10,444,413 11,046,846 11,706,263
6.3%
Source: IDC, 2010
Growth In The Broader HPC Market
Worldwide HPC Revenue for Server, Storage, Service and Software Revenue ($K) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
2011
2012
2013
CAGR
(09 - 13)
2008
2009
2010
Compute
$9,771,849
$8,637,114
$9,239,547
$9,841,980 $10,444,413 $11,046,846
6.3%
Storage
$3,371,288
$3,022,990
$3,280,039
$3,641,533
$3,968,877
$4,308,270
9.3%
Service
$1,856,651
$1,554,681
$1,686,217
$1,820,766
$1,958,327
$2,154,135
8.5%
Application Software
$3,322,429
$2,971,167
$3,215,362
$3,444,693
$3,759,989
$4,065,239
8.2%
Middleware
$1,172,622
$1,062,365
$1,154,943
$1,259,773
$1,357,774
$1,458,184
8.2%
$19,494,839 $17,248,317 $18,576,110 $20,008,745 $21,489,379 $23,032,673
7.5%
Total
Source: IDC, 2010
HPC Server Revenue ($K) In APeJ and
China, 2007 - 2010
HPC Server Revenue($K) in APeJ and China, 2007 - 2010(est)
Revenue
Total WW HPC
2007
2008
2009
2010(est)
CAGR
10,076,423
9,771,849
8,637,114
9,215,801
-2.9%
APeJ Rev
1,230,567
1,145,659
915,594
1,198,054
-0.9%
China Rev
290,285
281,043
274,678
431,299
14.1%
2007
2008
2009
12.2%
2.9%
23.6%
11.7%
2.9%
24.5%
10.6%
3.2%
30.0%
Percentage table
Percentages
APeJ/Worldwide
China/Worldwide
China/APeJ
Source: IDC, 2010
2010(est)
13.0%
4.7%
36.0%
Conclusions
 2010 is a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary
change in the worldwide HPC market
 Incremental advances will help, but not resolve persistent issues,
such as highly parallel programming challenges, power and
cooling costs, and software licensing costs
 IDC predicts the HPC market will resume growth in 2010
and grow by 3% to 5% in 2010
 And then will rebuild to exceed $11 billion by 2014
 The recovery will benefit HPC segments unevenly:
 With hard-hit verticals such as automotive recovering more slowly
than oil and gas, or government and academia
 The Supercomputer segment growth will remain turbo-charged by
government spending aimed at HPC leadership and “petaflop
club” membership
2011 IDC HPC Research Areas
• Quarterly HPC Forecast Updates
– Until the world economy fully recovers
• HPC End-user Based Reports:
– Clusters, processors, accelerators, storage,
interconnects, system software, and applications
– The evolution of government HPC budgets
– Emerging markets including China, Russia, etc.
– SMB and SMS research and award program
– Clouds in HPC
• Power and Cooling Research
• Developing a Market Model For Middleware and
Management Software
• Scaling of software – issues and solutions
• Worldwide Petascale and Exascale Initiatives
Questions?
Please email:
[email protected]
Or check out:
www.hpcuserforum.com
Agenda: Morning Sessions
9:00am
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10:30am
11:00am
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12:30pm
HPC User Site Updates
China Top 100 and the new ranking, Dr. Yunquan Zhang, Chinese
Academy of Science, Chair of China Top 100 (20 minutes)
HPC computing at BCC, Dr. Yu Zeng, Vice Chair, Beijing Computing
Center (20 minutes)
Boeing HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and
what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)
Vendor technical updates: Microsoft , Intel (15 minutes)
30 minute break
HPC User Site Updates
HPC in Chemical Processing, Dr. Chen Ding, University of Rochester,
Development of Large Scale Parallel Algorithms (20 minutes)
NASA HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and
what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)
HPC in Oil exploration, challenges and opportunities, Mr. Nenghe Lai,
Chief Engineer, China Petroleum (20 minutes)
New Ideas for Exascale File Systems, Peter Braam (15 minutes)
Lunch Break
Please Return
Promptly
At 2:00pm
Agenda: Afternoon Sessions
2:00pm
3:00pm
3:20pm
4:15pm
4:30pm
5:15pm
HPC In Industry
• NCSA Approaches to Industrial Outreach (20 minutes)
• OSC Approaches to Industrial Outreach (20 minutes)
• New Developments at Inspur (15 minutes)
NCI HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and
what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)
HPC Cloud Panel Discussions
• Panel on Grid and Cloud computing: Hunan Supercomputing
Center, Tianjing Supercomputer Center, KAUST, NASA, Penn
State, NSF, CUNY and Microsoft (1 hour)
15 minute break
High End Directions Panel
• Panel on petascale/exascale directions and the use of hybrid
systems/alternative processors: Institute of Science, ICT, Jiangnan
Institute of Computing Technology, NSF, HLRS, NCSA, NCI,
CUNY (1 hour)
Meeting wrap-up and the need for worldwide cooperation to advance
HPC
Panel #1
Clouds In HPC
Clouds In HPC Panel Members
• Sharan Kalwani, King Abdullah University of
Science & Technology (KAUST)
• Xuebing Chi, Chinese Academy of Science
• Nenghe Lai, BGP
• Robert Singleterry, NASA Langley
• Irene Qualters, National Science Foundation
• Paul Muzio, CUNY
• Vijay Agarwala, Pennsylvania State University
• Microsoft
Cloud Panel Q1
What do you see as the future of cloud
computing in HPC?
Cloud Panel Q2
Is your organization using (or
considering using) clouds today for any
HPC workloads?
Cloud Panel Q3
What are the main opportunities for
HPC cloud computing?
• What are the main challenges?
Cloud Panel Q4
Could clouds ever handle, say 15% to
25% of your current HPC workload?
 If not, why not?
Cloud Panel Q5
If the price was low enough, is there a
fit in your organization for clouds?
 If not, why not?
Panel #2
High End HPC Directions
High End HPC Panel Members
• Irene Qualters, National Science Foundation
• Michael Resch, HLRS/University of Stuttgart
• Merle Giles, National Center for Supercomputing
Applications
• Ninghui Sun, ICT
• Yunquan Zhang, CAS
• Fengbin Qi, Jiangnan Computing Center
• Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute
• Paul Muzio, City University of New York
High End HPC Panel Q1
What needs to happen for multipetascale and exascale systems to
become useful?
High End HPC Panel Q2
Will early exascale systems inevitably
be very narrow-purpose, able to run
only a few applications across a large
fraction of the machine?
High End HPC Panel Q3
What would be a good way to get more
applications running at the petascale/
exascale level?
High End HPC Panel Q4
How important will GPUs and other
alternative processors be for the future
of HPC, especially at the high end?
• Do you plan to use them for your
applications?
• If not, why not?
High End HPC Panel Q5
What proportion of available funding
should be invested in exascale software
development, as opposed to hardware
R&D?
Important Dates For Your Calendar
FUTURE HPC USER FORUM MEETINGS:
2011 US Meetings:
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April 5 to 7, Houston, Texas
September 6 to 8, San Diego, California
International Meetings (Dates will be set soon):
• CEA, France
• Imperial College, UK
• HLRS, Germany
Thank You
th
For Attending The 40
HPC User Forum
Meeting
Questions?
Please email:
[email protected]
Or check out:
www.hpcuserforum.com