Transcript process mining
流程探勘與它在評估流程 成本及分析流程上之應用
徐立群 成功大學會計學系 長榮大學資訊暨工程學院
Outline
Introduction to Process Mining
Data explosion challenge ; exploit the value of ever increasing business data Process mining The three main purposes of process mining: discovery, conformance, and enhancement
Estimating process costs w/ process mining
Analyzing processes w/ process mining
An example taken from BPIC 2012 challenge
Physical universe vs. digital universe
“The state of a bank” is mainly determined by the data stored in the bank’s information system. Money has become a predominantly digital entity .
Nowadays, when the booking of an HSR seat is successful, the customer can receive an e-ticket that can be carried by a smart phone.
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Physical universe vs. digital universe (cont)
When the ERP system of a manufacturer indicates that a particular product is out of stock, it is impossible to sell or ship the product even when it is available in physical form.
Technologies such as RFID, GPS, and sensor networks will stimulate a further alignment of the digital universe and the physical universe.
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Exploiting the value of ever increasing business data
One of the main challenges of today’s organizations is to extract information and value from data stored in their information systems.
The importance of information systems is not only reflected by the spectacular growth of data, but also by the role that these systems play in today’s business processes as the digital universe and the physical universe are becoming more and more aligned.
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Exploiting the value of ever increasing business data(cont)
The growth of a digital universe that is well-aligned with processes in organizations makes it possible to record and analyze events.
The challenge is to exploit event data in a meaningful way, for example,
to provide insights, identify bottlenecks, anticipate problems, record policy violations, recommend countermeasures, and streamline processes.
That is what process mining is all about.
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Process mining vs BPM vs WFM
Process mining , i.e., extracting valuable, process-related information from event logs, complements existing approaches to Business Process Management (BPM).
BPM is the discipline that combines
knowledge from information technology and knowledge from management sciences and applies this to operational business processes .
BPM can be seen as an extension of Workflow Management (WFM).
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Process mining vs BPM vs WFM (cont)
WFM primarily focuses on the automation of business processes the organization of work. , whereas BPM has a broader scope: from process automation and process analysis to process management and
BPM aims to improve operational business processes ; for example, by modeling a business process and analyzing it using simulation, management may get ideas on how to reduce costs while improving service levels.
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Example process model
A Petri net modeling the handling of compensation request (taken from van der Aalst Process Mining text) Page 10
Process Models --- Informal and Formal
Process models play important role in larger organizations.
Typically, two types of models are used: (a) informal models and (b) formal models (also referred to as “executable models”).
Informal models process).
are used for discussion and documentation whereas formal models are used for analysis or enactment (i.e., the actual execution of
Process Models --- Informal and Formal (cont)
The value of models is limited if too little attention is paid to the alignment of model and reality.
For example, it makes no sense to conduct simulation experiments while using a model that assumes an idealized model---incorrect redesign decisions are made.
It is also precarious to start a new implementation project guided by process models that hide reality.
Limitations
Executable models may be used to force people to work in a particular manner.
However, most models are not well-aligned with reality.
Most hand-made models are disconnected from reality and provide only an idealized view on the processes at hand: “paper tigers”.
Given (a) the interest in process models, (b) the abundance of event data, and (c) the limited quality of hand-made models, it seems worthwhile to relate event data to process models: process mining !
Process Mining
The idea of process mining is to discover, monitor and improve real processes (i.e., not assumed processes) by extracting knowledge from event logs readily available in today’s systems.
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The three main uses of process mining: discovery, conformance, and enhancement
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Estimating process costs w/ process mining
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Event logs
(taken from van der Aalst Process Mining text)
航空公司賠償流程
以代號表示
Petri Net
Annotated transition system
Case 1 Case 5 Case 3 Case 6 Case 4 Case 2 Case id 1 2 3 4 5 6 Trace a b d e h a d c e g a c d e f b d e g a d b e h a c d e f d c e f c d e h a c d e g
Decide the probabilities
1 1/6 2/6 1 3/6 1 1 1 1 1/2 1 1/2 1 2/3 1/3 1 1 1/2 1 1 1 Case id 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1 Trace a b d e h a d c e g a c d e f b d e g a d b e h a c d e f d c e f c d e h 1 a c d e g 1 1/2 1 1 1 f g h a b c d e Activity register request examine throughly examine casually check ticket decide reinitiate request pay compensation reject request
Observations
1/6 的 Case 會先 詳細的檢 查 (b) , 但最後被拒 絕 3/6 的 Case 會大 略的檢 查 (c) -> 1/3 接受， 2/3 再 重新申請 2/6 會先驗票 (d) ， 最後有 1/2 會被接受， 有 1/2 會被拒 絕 重新申請的 Case 有 1/2 會被接受， 有 1/ 2 會被拒 絕 流程拖的較長的 case 都牽涉到 「大略檢 查 」 (activity c) ✔ ✔ ✔
整體來看，六個 Case 的求償成功率為 1/2 。 （ h = reject request ）
Process cost
利用 Event log 所留下的 Cost, 計算流程成本 Case id 1 2 3 4 5 6 Trace Cost a b d e h a d c e g a c d e f b d e g a d b e h 950 950 1850 950 a c d e f d c e f c d e h 2750 a c d e g 950 SUM 8400 AVG 1400 a b c d e f g h Activity register request examine throughly examine casually check ticket decide reinitiate request pay compensation reject request 50+400+100+200+200 = 950 Cost 50 400 400 100 200 200 200 200
流程成本
$950 2300 ×⅔+950×⅓ ≅ 1850 950 × ⅙ +1850 ×½+950 ×⅓ ≅ 1400 950 ×½+950×½ ≅ 950 $1850 $2750 $950 $950 在發生了 acdef 流程時，預 期此處流程的成本為 $2300 2750 ×½+1850×½=2300 $950
流程成本-決策樹
用決策樹的方式，不止可以得到平均成本＄ 1400, 也可以得到 各個決策點的總流程成本。管理者可以思考如何改進流程以降 低總成本。 $950 $950 $2750 $2300 $2750 $1850 $1400 $1850 $1850 $950 $950 $950 $950 $950 在發生了 acdef 流程後，預期整 個流程的成本為 $2300 ，高於 原來預期的 1400 $950 $950
Analyzing processes w/ process mining
BPIC 2012 on the loan and overdraft approvals process of a real-world financial institution in the Netherlands.
Attempted to investigate following areas in detail
： Develop thorough understanding of the data Develop a detailed understanding of the underlying process Understand critical activities and decision points Understand and map life cycle of a loan application from start to eventual disposition as approved, declined or cancelled Identify any resource level differences in performance one can discern based on available data Identify opportunities for “process interventions” ： places in the process based on likelihood of success 27
Materials and Methods
The data captures process events for 13,087 loan / overdraft applications over a roughly six month period from October 2011 to March 2012.
The event log is comprised of a total of 262,200 events within these 13,087 cases.
Starting with a customer submitting an application and ending with eventual conclusion of that application into an Approval, Cancellation or Rejection (Delined).
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Log Description
An application is submitted through a webpage. Then, some automatic checks are performed, after which the application is complemented with additional information.
This information is obtained through contacting the customer by phone. If an applicant is eligible, an offer is sent to the client by mail.
After this offer is received back, it is assessed. When it is incomplete, missing information is added by again contacting the customer.
Then a final assessment is done, after which the application is approved and activated.
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Developing Thorough Understanding of the data
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Determining Standard Case Flow
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Determining Standard Case Flow
Original Explanation afhandelen leads completeren aanvraag nabellen offertes nabellen incomplete valideren aanvraag
Following up on incomplete initial submissions Completing pre-accepted applications Follow up after transmitting offers to qualified applicants Seeking additional information during assessment phase Assessing the application 32
Understanding Eventual Outcomes for Each Application
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Understanding Eventual Outcomes for Each Application
1/4立即被拒絕 開始到後續大約剩下 1/4被拒絕 34
Case-Level Analysis
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Case-Level Analysis
分
965
或
966
個
case
為一個區 段來看 36
Case-Level Analysis
取消 拒 絕 37 核准
Performance of the Top 5 Resources based on Time Spent
最有經驗的人所花的 時間
>
全體平均 38
Conclusions
Process mining is a new technique that allows one to zoom into the details of actual business processes --- X ray for business processes.
More applications are needed to show its usefulness.
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Thank you for your listening!
Department of Accountancy National Cheng Kung University Chang Jung Christian University College of Information & Engineering 40