Transcript Bryant
Miami
October 2010 Mike Bryant Director Gas Operations
Steadily Climbing Supply
U.S. Lower 48 Production
Rig Counts - Still Meaningful?
Rig Count and Lower 48 Production
Unconventional Gas “Hot Spots”
80 60 40 20 200 180 160 140 120 100
Shale Rig Counts
Haynesville Marcellus Barnett Eagle Ford Fayetteville Woodford
How Much Gas is Down There?
• According to ICF International, the U.S. has a resource base of over 2,800 Tcf, recoverable using current technologies – Enough to meet consumption needs for more than 130 years – Around 1,500 Tcf is economically recoverable at price of $5.00
– Improving technologies should increase the estimate over time
Shale Forecasts Going Up
Wood Mackenzie 2020 Production Forecast
3 2 1 0 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Haynesville Marcellus Apr. 2010 Eagle Ford Sept. 2010 Western Canada
Regional Supply Outlook
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009
Lower 48 Dry Gas Production
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 West Coast Northeast San Juan Permian Fort Worth Gulf of Mexico MidContinent Rockies Gulf Coast
Sep 2010 Long Term View
TEXAS
Haynesville Shale
Shifting Focus Area
LOUISIANA
Haynesville Shale Growth
•Growth of 2 Bcf/day over the past year •Backlog of as many as 300 wells (drilled and waiting on completion) suggests further production gains to come
Sep 2010 Long Term View
•Numbers support increased rig efficiencies •Since Q3 ‘08: •average well depths have increased 7% •Days to compete wells have decreased by 35%
- Enbridge presentation
Eagle Ford Shale
•Petrohawk discovery in South Texas; potentially spanning as many as 11 counties •For many years, the shale was known by South Texas drillers as a nuisance – tough to drill through on the way to other formations.
•First well came in at 9.1 MMcf/d, higher than average Barnett Shale wells •Wells have tested as high as 17 MMcf/d (dry) to nearly 20 MMcf/d (wet) •High quality gas and condensates
Eagle Ford Shale
3,5
Eagle Ford Production Outlook
3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 •Current production around 400 MMcf/d •Some estimates have production at 4 Bcf/day by 2015 •Current infrastructure focus on midstream facilities
Marcellus Shale
Marcellus Production Outlook 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
•Some estimates have as much as 8 Bcf/day by 2014 •Current production over 1.3 Bcf/day •In 2008, forecasted production did not reach 1 Bcf/day until 2014!
2020
Fayetteville Shale Going Strong
New takeaway pipelines have driven production increases •Fayetteville Lateral in 2009 •Fayetteville Express to start up by next month •Expected to peak at around 3.5 Bcf/day by 2021 Source: Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission ( Wood Mackenzie)
We Can’t Forget the Barnett…
6,0
Barnett Shale Production Outlook
5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 •The largest gas– producing field in the country •Drilling is active around smaller areas with oil and liquids
Another Way of Looking At It…
FGT Phase VIII Expansion Project
• • • • •
Design capacity 820,000 MMBtu/d Shippers – FP&L, Progress, Seminole, Tampa Electric, OUC, Tallahassee FERC approval received – Nov. 2009 Target in-service date – April 2011 Total capacity into Florida of 3.1 Bcf/day
2010 Throughput Daily Deliveries In Florida High Low 2.406 Bcf 1.230 Bcf Peak Day Deliveries in Florida Volume # of Days > 2.4 Bcf 1 > 2.3 Bcf > 2.2 Bcf > 2.1 Bcf 23 52 43 Daily Average Deliveries June – August
2.23 Bcf/d
99% Load Factor
3 4
Tres Palacios
FGT Storage Connections
Napoleonville Southern Pines Bay Gas
11 10 8 9 12 7 75 13 14 6 15
Golden Triangle Bobcat Petrologistics
16 24 17 26 27 30 31 18
Pine Prairie
19 20 21 22 • • • •
Golden Triangle in-service December 2010 Direct connections with 10 storage facilities Total storage capacity of over 175 Bcf Over 4 Bcf/day of receipt capacity from storage
New / Expanded Supply Options
Enterprise – Acadian 1.0 Bcf/d FGT/Transco – Citronelle 1.1 Bcf/d
3 6 4
Golden Pass 250 MM/d
7 75 8 9 10 11 12 13
Gulf LNG/Pascagoula Lateral 342 MM/d
14 15 16 24 17 26 27 30 31 18 19 20 22 21
Golden Pass Terminal & Pipeline
Golden Pass Interconnect 250 MM/d
9 10 11 12 7 75 8 13 14 6 3 4 • • • • •
Qatar Petroleum & Exxon Mobil Corp.
LNG Terminal – 2 Bcf/d sendout capacity Will be commissioning terminal late 2010 Golden Pass Pipeline – 2.5 Bcf/d Interconnect with FGT in Orange Co., TX
15 16 24 17 26 27 30 31 18 19 20 22 21
FGT / Transco Citronelle Interconnect
Transco Sta. 85
9 10 11 12 7 75 8 13 14 6 4 3 •
Planned upgrades at Citronelle will increase
•
capacity to 1.1 Bcf/d in 2011 Transco expansion projects provide southbound capacity from Station 85
•
Mobile Bay South I 254/d – May 2010
•
Mobile Bay South II 380/d – May 2011
15 16 24 17 26 27 30 31 18 19 20 22 21
Enterprise – Acadian Gas Pipeline
Acadian 1 Bcf/d
11 9 10 12 7 75 8 13 14 6 3 15 4 • • • •
Haynesville Extension Pipeline Project 270 mile 42”/36” pipeline 1.8 Bcf/d capacity, expandable to 2.1 Bcf/d 1 Bcf/d interconnect with FGT in LA In-service 3 rd Qtr 2011
16 24 17 26 27 30 31 18 19 20 22 21
Gulf LNG Terminal
Oklahoma Gulf LNG Terminal
• • • • •
Near Pascagoula, MS Storage Capacity - 6.6 Bcf Firm Sendout - 1.3 Bcf/d Terminal Owners
–
GE, Sonangol & El Paso (operator) Terminal Capacity Holders
–
Chevron, BP, Total, Eni & Sonangol Target in-service date – Sept. 2011
FGT Pascagoula Lateral Project
• • • • • •
Joint project – FGT & Transco Direct connection to the Gulf LNG Terminal Total lateral capacity – 810,000 MMBtu/day
–
FGT 343,000 MMBtu/day
–
Transco 467,000 MMBtu/day Received FERC approval – July 2010 Start construction – early 2011 Target in-service date – Sept. 2011
Pascagoula Lateral Project
FGT Compressor Station 10 FGT Mainline FGT Compressor Station 11 FGT / Transco Pascagoula Lateral (15 miles 26”) Tie-in to both FGT & Transco Mobile Bay Laterals Gulf LNG Terminal Gulf LNG Pipeline Mobile Bay Supply