Transcript Elena Telegina

Global energy shift
Elena Telegina
Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security
Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences
Dean, International Energy Business Department
Doctor of Economics, Professor
Russian University of Oil and Gas
The Baltic Forum, 25-26 October 2013
Regional GDP growth, World Bank 2013
Russia
2,3 %
(-1,1%)*
USA
2,0 %
-0,2%)*
EU
-0,6%
(-0,1%)*
(+0,1%)*
China
7,7 %
(-0,1%)*
Japan
1,4 %
(-0,6%)*
(-1,0%)*
(+0,4%)*
Latin
America
3,3 %
(+0,3%)*
World GDP 2013 2,2% (-0,1%)
(-0,2%)*
(+0,5%)*
* % of change 2013 to 2012
Gas slows down but still expands its role
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•
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Global gas consumption grows at 100 bcm/year
Gas is growing faster than oil at 2,4%/year but continues to fall behind coal
Transportation emerges as a major demand accounting for 10% of gas demand
growth driven by China and United States
World GDP 2008-2015
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Medium-term Oil Market Balance
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Global shale gas basins, top reserve holders
World Shale Deposits
US Shale Fields
Proven resources- 24 tcm
Shale gas in US gas production,
tcf per year
US oil shale production
US oil shale production will increase to 1,9 mbd in 2016
Top 10 countries with technically
recoverable shale oil resources
Rank
Country
Top 10 countries with technically
recoverable shale gas resources
Shale oil
(bbl)
Rank
Country
Shale gas
( tcf)
75
1
China
58 (48)*
2
Argentina
802
707
1
Russia
2
US*
3
China
32
3
Algeria
4
Argentina
27
4
US*
5
Libya
26
5
Canada
573
6
Venezuela
13
6
Mexico
545
7
Mexico
13
7
Australia
437
8
Pakistan
9
8
South Africa
390
9
Canada
9
9
Russia
285
10
Indonesia
8
10
Brazil
245
World Total
345 (335)
*EIA estimates used for ranking order.
API estimates in parenthesis
World Total
1,115
665 (1,161)
7 299 (7795)
US shale oil breakeven prices
Shale gas basins in Europe
Shale gas reserves
Shale gas
Reserves
2012
Production Banned
Allowed
Production possible.
but under discussion
US gas prices decreasing
$/th cm
$/bl
Gas, Indonesia
Gas, USA
Gazprom-Europe
Brent
Finmarket.ru
US Shale Gas Production, bcm/year
US Gas Prices, $/MMBtu
prices
forecast
Credit Suisse
Unconventional gas in Russia
83 700 tcm of CBM (coal bed methane)
Lena Basin
Irkutsk Basin
Talnyr Basin
South Yakutia
Zaryan Basin
Eastern Donbass
Tungus Basin
Pechora Basin
Kuzbass
Change in current account balance
as % of GDP in alternative oil price scenarios
PWC 2013
Costs of oil and gas production
Production
Costs, US$/bl
OIL
Conventional Oil
10-40
Secondary production
20-80
Deep sea
40-65
Arctic shelf
40-100
Heavy oil, oil sands
40-80
Oil shale
50-100
US$/thousand cm
GAS
Conventional gas
20-210
Unconventional gas (shale, CBM, tight gas)
100-320
Sulphur gas
110-360
Arctic shelf
140-430
Deep sea
180-390
IEA WEO
Projects in advanced stage
could transform the US into the №3 LNG exporter
(after Qatar and Australia)
IEA
Thank you!