Transcript sgy_presentation_-_april_final__
“POSITIONED FOR SUSTAINABILITY AND GROWTH”
April, 2014
TSX:SGY www.surgeenergy.ca
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. More particularly, this presentation contains statements concerning anticipated: (i) potential development opportunities and drilling locations, expectations and assumptions concerning the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, decline rates, recovery factors, the successful application of technology and the geological characteristics of Surge’s properties, (ii) cash flow, (iii) the timing and amount of future dividend payments, (iv) oil & natural gas production growth during 2013 and 2014, (v) debt and bank facilities, (vi) hedging results, (vii) primary and secondary recovery potentials and implementation thereof, (viii) potential acquisitions, (ix) potential dispositions, (x) drilling, completion and operating costs, and (xiii) realization of anticipated benefits of acquisitions. The forward-looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Surge, including expectations and assumptions concerning the performance of existing wells and success obtained in drilling new wells, anticipated expenses, cash flow and capital expenditures and the application of regulatory and royalty regimes.
Although Surge believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because Surge can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. Certain of these risks are set out in more detail in Surge’s Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at www.sedar.com
.
The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and Surge undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
This presentation contains the term “netbacks” which is not a term recognized under IFRS Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”). The Company uses this measure to help evaluate its performance as well as to evaluate acquisitions. The Company considers netbacks as a key measure as it demonstrates its profitability relative to current commodity prices. Operating netbacks are calculated by taking total revenues (excluding derivative gains and losses) and subtracting royalties, operating expenses and transportations costs on a per boe basis.
Note: Boe means barrel of oil equivalent on the basis of 1 boe to 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas. Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 1 boe for 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Boe/d means barrel of oil equivalent per day.
In this presentation: (i) mcf means thousand cubic feet; (ii) mcf/d means thousand cubic feet per day (iii) mmcf means million cubic feet; (iv) mmcf/d means million cubic feet per day; (v) bbls means barrels; (vi) mbbls means thousand barrels; (vii) mmbbls means million barrels; (viii) bbls/d means barrels per day; (ix) bcf means billion cubic feet; (x) mboe means thousand barrels of oil equivalent; (xi) mmboe means million barrels of oil equivalent and (xii) boe/d means barrels of oil equivalent per day.
2
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Q1/14 Drilling/Waterflood Results – Better Than Expected: • 100% drilling success in Q1/14; exit rate increased to 16,850 boed (85% oil & NGLs) and 21,350 boed (84% oil & NGLs) proforma strategic business combination with Longview • Large new pool discovery in the Upper Shaunavon 125 mm OOIP Discovery well is > 300 bopd > 64 additional locations!
Announced a $429 million Strategic Business Combination on March 31, 2014: • Adds more than 375 million boe of OOIP management
(1)
; post-closing Surge will have over 1.9 billion barrels of light and medium gravity OOIP under the Company's ownership and • • • An excellent asset fit that is accretive on all metrics Proposed dividend increase of 11%; to $0.60/share Lowered “all-in” sustainability ratio to <89% 3 Solid Organic and Acquisition Reserve Results: • Replaced 196% of production through organic 2P reserve additions on F&D (incl. change in FDC) of $17.03/boe achieving a 2.5x recycle ratio; • Four year weighted average F&D recycle ratio of 2.0x; • 2P reserve additions on FD&A (incl. change in FDC) of $27.27/boe (1.5x recycle ratio); and • Increased Proved plus Probable reserves by 59% to 73.5 million boe
(1) Original Oil in Place (OOIP) is the equivalent to Total Petroleum Initially In Place (TPIIP) for the purposes of this press release. TPIIP is defined as that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in naturally occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations, prior to production, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered. There is no certainty that any portion of the undiscovered resources will be discovered. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. A recovery project cannot be defined for this volume of TPIIP at this time, and as such it cannot be further sub-categorized. as defined in this presentation.
WHY OWN SURGE ENERGY?
Low risk, high quality, crude oil asset and opportunity base; >12 year RLI (with 2 years of FDC/cash flow); Very low “all-in” sustainability ratio (<89%); NO DRIP
Excellent replacement metrics/capital efficiencies (<$29,000/boepd); 10 year inventory of low risk development drilling locations; largely unbooked waterflood upside
One of the best balance sheets in peer group
4
Enterprise value
(1)
~$1.4 billion; Market capitalization
(1)
billion; Excellent liquidity >$1.1
(1) Based on a share price of $6.30.
SURGE ENERGY INC.
Elite, operated, large OOIP crude oil reservoirs, with low recovery factors; over 1.5 Billion barrels of OOIP under management - with current recovery factor of 10%; proforma the LNV combination over 1.9 Billion barrels of OOIP under management
Strong balance sheet; ongoing risk management/hedging program
Experienced management team with proven track records
5
6
KEY VALUE DRIVERS (RISK ADJUSTED)
1. 3-5% organic annual per share growth in reserves, production and cash flow; and 2. >8% dividend yield; and 3. Debt reduction (i.e. due to low sustainability ratio); increases NAV; and 4. Accretive acquisitions.
ELITE, FOCUSED ASSET BASE
7
EXPOSURE TO >1.5 BILLION BBLS OF OOIP 10% OIL RECOVERED TO DATE
8
EXCELLENT CAPITAL EFFICIENCIES / REPLACEMENT METRICS
Areas Locations (Gross / Net) Capital Efficiency Rates of Return % Drill/ Complete/ Equip 180 day IP Mboe/well (on primary) Upper Shaunavon
(100/100)
Lower Shaunavon
(269/262)
Valhalla
(46/38)
Nipisi
(37/37)
Eye Hill/Provost Sparky
(103/100)
Macoun
(27/23)
Sask Viking
(138/112)
SE Sask – Frobisher/Alida
(40/31)
Manson
(38/34) $18,950/boepd $23,570/boepd $14,300/boepd $30,400/boepd $18,800/boepd $15,700/boepd $22,500/boepd $24,000/boepd $27,500/boepd 78% 41% 130% 40% 100% 57% 44% 64% 26% $2.00MM
$1.65MM
$4.3MM
$3.8 MM $1.6 MM $1.1MM
$0.9MM
$1.2MM
$1.1MM
105 boepd (100% oil) 70 boepd (100% oil) 300 boepd (66% oil) 125 boepd (100% oil) 85 boepd (100% oil) 70 boepd (100% oil) 40 boepd (100% oil) 50 boepd (99% oil) 40 boepd (100% oil) 125 70 672 150 100 63 33 54 42
SUMMARY OF QUALITY OIL RESERVOIRS – LARGE OOIP
(1)
WITH LOW RECOVERY FACTORS
Property Formation
Western Alberta SE Alberta SW Saskatchewan Williston Basin Doig/Slave Point/Bluesky Mannville Group Shaunavon/ Viking Mississippian Group
OOIP (MMbbls) Gross/Net Drilling Locations Gross/Net Avg. WI Cum Oil Recovery Factor
338/294 472/389 484/475 463/368 118/109 143/137 507/474 105/88 94% 84% 97% 83% 1.6% 19.1% 1.0% 15.2%
Total Booked Independent Recovery Factor P+P (2) (% OOIP)
7.5% 23.2% 4.6% 18.9%
Internally Estimated Ultimate Recovery Net (Waterflood with Development Drilling)
22% 32% 12% 21% 9
TOTAL
1,757/1,526 873/808 89% 10.0% 14.2% 22% • • • • • • • Achieved Proved plus Probable (2P) F&D (incl. change in FDC) of $17.03/boe achieving a 2.5x recycle ratio.
Achieved 2P FD&A (incl. change in FDC) of $27.27/boe achieving a 1.5x recycle ratio.
Organic proved plus probable reserve additions replaced 196% of production. Increased Proved plus Probable reserves by 59% to 73.5 million boe. Increased Proved plus Probable Oil and NGLs reserves by 79%.
Oil and NGLs made up 78% of the Company's total Proved plus Probable reserves.
Surge's Net Asset Value (NAV) is estimated at $7.03 per basic share based on NPV10 BT 2P reserves of $1.497 billion.
(2)
(1) December 31, 2013 reserves.
(2) Based on independent engineering reports as at December 31, 2013 (including the SE Saskatchewan asset acquisition that closed on Feb 14, 2014).
ELITE WATERFLOOD RESERVOIRS – LOW DECLINE
Area
Silver Wainwright
Area
Windfall Nipisi Shaunavon Macoun Manson Silver – Eyehill Silver – Provost Valhalla Sask Viking
Formation
Lloyd/ Cummings Sparky
Formation
Bluesky Slave Point Lower Shaunavon Midale Bakken Sparky Sparky Doig Viking
Current Properties Under Full Commercial Waterflood Start Date 2014 Decline Current RF Booked RF Expected RF
1996 18% 12.6% 35.7% 39.0% 1962 8% 32.0% 35.5% 37.1%
Start Date Current Waterflood Pilots # of Injectors Analog Property
Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q4 2013 Q4 2013 Q2
Comments
1 2 5 1 2 N/A Sinclair 52,000 m3 injected; offset declines are flattening Gift Shaunavon Benson . .
3rd injector in Jan 2014; results to date encouraging; analog pool is commercial Piloting 200 and 400 m spacing; 3 analog pilots showing strong oil response.
1st hz injector in the pool; analog pool is commercial Initial results are encouraging; analog pool is commercial
2014 Waterflood Pilots
1-2 Wainwright New Q1/13 discovery; > 80 MM OOIP Q2 Q4 Q3 1-2 1 1 Wainwright N/A Dodsland New Q1/13 discovery; > 45 MM OOIP 10
Macoun
WILLISTON BASIN SE Sask (Midale/Frobisher/Alida)
Steelman Alameda Hastings Rosebank Silverton Ingoldsby Gainsborough
11 Surge Land • 342 MMbbls of OOIP (35-37 degree API) • Current recovery factor 19.8% of OOIP • • • Rates of return ~74%
(1)
67 gross/54 net drilling locations
(2)
Estimated 23% RF
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
(2) As at January 1, 2014.
Surge Land Surge Wells 12
WILLISTON BASIN Manson (Bakken/Three Forks)
Manson
• • • 76 MMbbls of OOIP (35 degree API) Current recovery factor 0.9% of OOIP Rates of return ~40%
(1)
• 38 gross/34 net drilling locations remain at Manson
( 2 )
• 2 injectors have been implemented in Q3; exciting early response • Based on successful waterflood implementation, Surge estimates ultimate recovery of at least 13% of the estimated 76 MMbbls of OOIP
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
(2) As of January 1, 2014.
13 Surge Land Surge Wells
SW SASKATCHEWAN Shaunavon (Lower and Upper)
• • • • • • • >350 MMbbls of OOIP in the Lower and Upper Shaunavon formations (medium gravity oil) Current recovery factor ~1.3% Rates of return in excess of 50%
(1)
369 gross/362 net drilling locations in the Lower and Upper Shaunavon based on 8 wells/section
(2)
>70 pump optimization opportunities with capital efficiencies of < $7,500/bopd Elite, operated facilities, including: pipeline connected battery, waterflood infrastructure, a nearby rail transloading facility, and an existing rail marketing arrangement Significant unbooked upside from the successful implementation of Q4 2013 waterflood as the assets are developed over time
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
14
Wainwright
SE ALBERTA Silver/Wainwright Area (Cretaceous Sands)
Silver
• • • • • • • • • >435 MMbbls OOIP (23-31 degree API oil) Multi-zone, medium gravity crude at shallow depths (<1,000 meters) Current recovery factor of 19.1% Low-decline, high ROR assets that provide stable cash flow base Continued positive oil response from expanded waterflood initiatives in two zones Control of key infrastructure Rates of return in excess of 100%
(1)
143 gross/137 net drilling locations
(2)
Successful drilling/farm-in/acquisitions have resulted in capture of two new Cretaceous oil pools in Silver Area (~125 MMbbls of OOIP combined) Surge Land Surge Wells Farm-in Lands
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
(2) As at January 1 2014.
15 Surge Land Surge Wells
Plenty Dodsland Plato Forgan
SW SASKATCHEWAN Viking
• • • • • • • Operated; high working interests High netback >$55/bbl Rates of return ~34%
(1)
143 MMbbls of OOIP (37 degree API) in the Viking formation Current recovery factor 0.5% of OOIP 138 gross/112 net drilling locations remain at SW Saskatchewan Viking
(2)
Potential waterflood upside
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
(2) As at January 1, 2014.
Valhalla
WESTERN ALBERTA Valhalla South / Wembley (Doig)
• • • • • • >160 MMbbls of combined OOIP at Valhalla and Wembley (40 degree API light oil) Rates of return of >130%
(1)
Current recovery factor ~2.4%
(2)
44 gross/37 net drilling locations at both Valhalla and Wembley Continue delineating large pool extension to the North Potential future waterflood candidate 16 Surge Land Surge Wells
Wembley
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
(2) As at January 1, 2014
Gift
WESTERN ALBERTA Nipisi (Slave Point)
Analogue Slave Point Waterflood Nipisi Nipisi South
• • • • • • 115 MMbbls of combined OOIP (35-42 degree API) in the Slave Point Formation at Nipisi North and Nipisi South Current recovery factor ~0.7% of OOIP Rates of return of ~50%
(1)
37 gross/37 net Slave Point and Gilwood drilling locations remain at Nipisi North and South
(2)
Commenced water injection during Q2 2013; exciting early response Based on successful waterflood implementation, Surge estimates ultimate recovery of at least 20% of the estimated 85 MMbbls of OOIP in the northern pool based on offsetting analogous waterflooded pools Surge Land Surge Wells Reef Margin Edge 17
(1) Based on Year 1 price of C$ 93.00/Bbl Edm Par, US$ 96.00/Bbl WTI, C$ 3.50/GJ AECO, escalated at 2%/Year thereafter.
(2) As at January 1, 2014.
$120,00 $110,00 $100,00 $90,00 $80,00 $70,00 $60,00 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0
Oil Hedges 43% 50%
RISK MANAGEMENT/HEDGING STRATEGY
49% 49% 26% 26% 19% 19%
55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% • The Company has an orderly, on-going, risk management / hedging program designed to lock in future cash flows to protect the Company’s capex program and fund dividends. • Surge has nearly 5,000 barrels per day of WTI oil hedged on average for 2014 at CAD$97.07, 2,750 barrels per day of WTI oil hedged at CAD$96.70 for the first half of 2015 and 2,000 barrels per day of WTI oil hedged at CAD$93.27 for the second half of 2015 .
• Surge has 7,586 mcf per day of AECO natural gas hedged at CAD$3.61 for the remainder of 2014, and 3,793 mcf per day of AECO natural gas hedged at CAD$3.87 for 2015.
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015
Time Period Average Oil Hedge Price
Q2 2015 Oil Volume Currently Hedged Percentage of Current Net Oil Production Hedged Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Strip - C$ WTI Average C$ WTI Oil Hedge Floor Price WCS Differential Hedges 1H 2014 2H 2014 2015 bbls/d hedged 2,500 2,000 2,000 EDM Light Differential Hedges Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 bbls/d hedged 1,500 2,500 500 500 WTI-less USD$/bbl $21.87
$22.71
$22.71
WTI-less USD$/bbl $8.23
$7.90
$8.70
$8.70
18
SURGE – POSITIONED FOR SUSTAINABILITY
• Low base decline 24%, high netbacks, excellent capital efficiencies • Very low “all-in” sustainability ratio of <89%; NO DRIP • Strong balance sheet; 2014 debt to funds flow ratio of <1.3x
• Ongoing risk management/hedging program protects cash flow 19
SURGE – POSITIONED FOR GROWTH
• Focused, high quality, crude oil asset and opportunity base; core properties are 100% operated with working interests of >90% • Elite, large OOIP crude oil reservoirs – with low recovery factors; >12 year RLI (only 2 years of FDC/cash flow) • Over 800 low risk development drilling locations provide >10 year inventory 20
21
ANALYST COVERAGE
Financial Institution
AltaCorp. Capital BMO Capital Markets Cannaccord Genuity CIBC World Markets Inc.
Cormark Securities Inc.
Desjardins Securities Inc.
Dundee Securities Corporation FirstEnergy Capital Corp.
GMP Securities L.P.
Macquarie Securities Group National Bank Financial Paradigm Capital Peters & Co. Limited Raymond James RBC Capital Markets Scotia Capital Inc.
TD Securities
Analyst
Don Rawson Jim Byrne Anthony Petrucci Jeremy Kaliel Todd Kepler TBD Chad Ellison Cody R. Kwong Grant Daunheimer Ray Kwan Dan Payne Ken Lin Dale Lewko TBD Shailender Randhawa Cameron Bean Juan Jarrah
Email Address
CORPORATE PARTNERS
22
Advisors Bankers: Auditor: Legal Counsel: Evaluation Engineers: Registrar & Transfer Agent: Investor Contacts:
National Bank of Canada Bank of Nova Scotia Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ATB Financial Toronto-Dominion Bank JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. KPMG LLP McCarthy Tétrault Sproule Associates Ltd.
McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd.
Olympia Trust Company Paul Colborne, President & CEO Max Lof, CFO
2100, 635 – 8 th Ave. SW, Calgary Alberta T2P 3M3 T: 403.930.1010 F: 403.930.1011
www.surgeenergy.ca