Transcript Adapting social safety net programs to climate change
ToR #11
Adapting social safety net programs to climate change shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh
Workshop on ‘Research to Inform Food and Nutrition Security Policies’
Presented by
Professor Dr. M.A. Awal
Principal Investigator
Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
Dated: November 28, 2012 (15:15) Venue: Ruposhi Bangla Hotel, Ball Room, 1 Minto Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Team Members
1. Professor Dr. M.A. Awal,
Principal Investigator
Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU), Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 2. Professor Dr. M. Harun-Ar Rashid,
Co-Investigator
Department of Agricultural Economics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 3. Mr. A.F.M. Tariqul Islam,
Co-Investigator
Remote Sensing & GIS Lab, ASICT Section, Training & Communication Wing, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh 4. Mr. M. Farouq Imam,
Research Assistant
Department of Agricultural Statistics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 5. Mr. M. Shameem Hossain,
Research Fellow
Department of Crop Botany, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
I. Rationale
Why is the climate change issue important to Bangladesh?
● ● ● ● Spatial geographic position, presence of Bay of Bengal; Monsoon climate, variability in rainfall leads to flood or drought; Physiographic factors, riverbed siltation, low elevation in coastal region: great risk to sea level rising, water logging and salinity; Higher incidence of poverty: poor (31%, HIES 2010) are more vulnerable to climate shocks.
Study concerned to ❶ Flood ❷ Cyclone (coastal zone) ❸ Water logging (S-W zone) ❹ Salinity (coastal zone) ❺ Drought (N-W zone)
II. Objectives
❶ ❷ ❸
To quantify the number of rural poor whose livelihoods is threatened by climate change and describe the type of climate risks facing them; To identify successful examples of coordination/integration of disaster risk management (DRM), social safety nets (SSN) and climate change adaptation (CCA)/rural development in Bangladesh and abroad; To draw implications for the design and implementation of the safety nets in Bangladesh and for the coordination among ministries such as the MoFood, MoDMR, MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC.
III. Methodology
❶ Literature collection & synthesise: National & Global ❷ Collection of secondary data: HIES- 2005 & 2010, climate maps, climatic data, BBS, budget document (MoFin) etc.
❸ Collection of primary data: FGDs, Case studies, PRA sessions etc.
❹ Stakeholder consultations: Service providers & users from GO & NGOs Official – Local & Central/Higher Level ❺ Quantitative analysis of secondary data: Number of poor affected by climate risk, construction of vulnerability index, analysis of safety net variables etc.
❻ GIS mapping on household vulnerability
Collection of primary data Tools ● Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) ● ● Case Studies Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA)
IV. Results & Discussion
SL
A.
Contents & Sequence
People exposure to climate shocks with number affected
No. of Slides
2 B.
C.
D.
E.
Concrete examples in integrating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions Social safety net financing in Bangladesh Safety net distribution by HH type, Divisions, etc. (HIES 2010) Selective SSN programmes ( VGD, RE-RMP, FFW & CLP ): Effectiveness in dealing with climate shocks like flood, cyclone, water logging, salinity & drought , and scale-up potentialities to CCA F.
G.
Climate change vulnerability and strategy to reduce Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh (multi-stakeholder approach) 5 2 2 1 1 1
getting started…………………….
A1) Exposure of poor household to climate shocks National Rangpur Rajshahi Khulna Dhaka Chittagong Barisal Sylhet National Rangpur Rajshahi Khulna Dhaka Chittagong Barisal Sylhet National Rangpur Rajshahi Khulna Dhaka Chittagong Barisal Sylhet National Rangpur Rajshahi Khulna Dhaka Chittagong Barisal Sylhet National Rangpur Rajshahi Khulna Dhaka Chittagong Barisal Sylhet Rural Urban Rangpur division is most exposed to flood & Khulna division for erratic rain or cyclone (Survey year 2010) %Household experienced by different type of climatic shocks in the different divisions of Bangladesh 0 1 2 3 4 Percentage poor (UPL) to total household 5 6
A2) Number of people affected by climate shocks in Bangladesh Due to larger size of population (47 million) & flood incidence Due to higher incidence of cyclone & monsoon rains Due to recurrent flood & higher incidence of poverty (46%)
B) Concrete examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions
Integration among the SSN, CCA and DRM interventions is relatively new field where some nations have just completed or being passed a pilot phase……………………….
B1) Some Global/International & Asian experiences
SL #
❶
Project name
Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) ❷ ❸ ❹ Seed voucher and fair programme Drought Mitigation through Irrigation and Conservation Agriculture Extension (DICE) project Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP)
Enterprise
Livelihood for food insecure HHs Crop diversity Crop production Extreme poverty ❺ Sustainable Livelihoods Program (SLP) & Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) Project Livestock husbandry for vulnerable herders community
Climate shock
Drought Prolong drought Drought & flood Drought & flood Drought & severe winter spring colds
SSN tool/services used
Multi-year resource transfers Seed delivery/distribution Promotion of small scale, sustainable and replicable irrigation systems Asset transfers, infrastructure development, credit & training etc.
Community-based resource management, land use & contingency planning etc.
Nation/ Refs.
Ethiopia (DFID, 2009) Kenya (Davies et al., 2008) Malawi (CARE, 2009) Rwanda (Siegel et al., 2011) Mongolia (Belete, 2007).
B2) Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA
Integration among the SSN, CCA and DRM is emerging in Bangladesh…………………
CDMP is working to select and recommend the best feasible CCA options for a community through exploring, consulting, piloting and screening the locally practiced options on the different climate change issues like flood, drought, salinity, safe drinking water etc.
Climate Change Cell addresses current impacts and manage future risks of climate change and variability at all levels in all stages toward a climate resilient Bangladesh. It facilitates management of long term climate risks and uncertainties as an integral part of national development planning.
Some examples for integrating SSN, DRM & CCA are (Arnall et al., 2010) : ❶ Char Livelihood Programme, CLP (DFID), ❷ Mainstreaming Livelihood-Centred Approaches to Disaster Management (Practical Action ) ❸ Social Investment Programme (World Bank/GoB), ❹ Food Security for Sustainable Household Livelihoods (CARE/European Commission), ❺ Flood-Resistant Housing through Micro-Loans (Grameen Bank), ❻ Disaster Management Programmes (includes several initiatives) (Caritas, Bangladesh), ❼ Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change (LACC, phases 1, 2, 3) (DAE, GoB/FAO), ❽ Challenge Fund for Economic Empowerment of the Poorest (DFID/GoB) etc………………
C) Social safety net financing in Bangladesh VGD = Vulnerable Group Development RE-RMP = Rural Employment Rural Maintenance Programme FFW = Food-For-Work CLP = Char Livelihood Programme Although the budget for SSN is slowly increased, however, its allocation to national budget and GDP is gradually decreased 1 st Phase (2004-2010) 2 nd Phase (2010-2016) CLP’s budget DFID : £50 million GoB : BDT 100 million DFID : £70 million AusAid : £8.235 million GoB : BDT 140 million
D) Safety net user distribution by HH type, Division, etc. (HIES 2010) Very minimum
E) Selective SSN programmes: Effectiveness & scale-up potentialities to CCA SSN program VGD RE-RMP FFW CLP Major beneficiary level Household Household+ Community /state Current potentiality of integration Scale-up potentiality to foster climate change Adaptation (CCA) SSN DRM SSN DRM Enhancing adaptive capacity through promotion of sustainable income generation and microfinance activities, and household saving Incorporation of embankment/polder maintenance, tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost preparation Household+ Community /state Household SSN DRM SSN DRM CCA Elevating and widening the road or embankment against flood, tidal surge or salinity; de-siltation of dead river/canal which would reduce the risk associated with flood or water logging; excavation or re-excavation of pond for harvesting rain water which facilitates agricultural production in salinity or drought prone areas Collection of soil from dead rivers (if any) for plinth rising which would reduce the flood risk; developing marketing system of their products, extending the programme to the other flood prone areas
F1) Climate change vulnerability 1 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 B ar is al C hi tta gon g D ha ka K hul na R aj sha hi Division R angp ur Syl he t Vulnerability consists of adaptive capacity, sensitivity & exposure (IPCC TAR, 2001)
Vulnerabil ity
Sensitivit y Exposure Adapative Capacity Barisal, Rangpur & Khulna divisions: Higher vulnerability due to frequent experience of cyclone/flood events Rajshahi division: Minimum vulnerability due to minimum climate sensitivity like flood or cyclone
F2) Strategy/policy to reduce climate vulnerability
Components Adaptive capacity Direction of change Increase Sensitivity Exposure Decrease Decrease
F2a. Improvement of Adaptive Capacity/Resiliency
Responsibility Household Community State Promotion of Income, house quality, remittance, microfinance activity, school enrollment, literacy rate, alternative livelihood options (handicrafts, poultry/cattle rearing, plant nursery, aquaculture etc.), on standby during disastrous time with food, fuel and saving etc. Awareness to disaster and its preparedness training, security of livestock and food storage system, cooperative society, protection of dam/embankment, and cottage industries at local level like tailoring, bamboo and cane, jute goods, earth goods, jewelries etc.
Road, bridge, culvert, public transportation, educational institutes, hospital/health service, cyclone/flood protection centre or boat shelter for fisher men, poverty reduction, social safety net service etc.
F2b. Reduction of Sensitivity to climate change
Extreme event
Flood Cyclone
Means of reduction
Construction of strong embankment with adequate sluice gate and modern flood protection centre, river or canal dredging/de-siltation Establishment of strong embankment/polder with adequate sluice gates, modern cyclone centre with coastal design, multi-layered green belt with monocotyledons tree Water logging Salinity Drought Elevating the beels, roads, homestead, institutes etc.
Inhibit the intrusion of saline water from sea by strong coastal embankment, proper management of sluice gates, rain water harvest Construction of water reservoirs, excavation or re excavation of ponds, channels/canals, ditches, mini-pond; rain/flood water harvest
F2c. Reduction of Exposure to climate change
Climatic event
Flood Cyclone Water logging Salinity Drought
Means of reduction
Introduction of early/short duration (e.g. BRRI-33, BINA-7 etc. for rice) and submergence tolerant (e.g. BRRI-42, 43. BINA Shail etc. for rice) or tall statured/deep water (e.g. local aman rice) crop varieties, floating agriculture (e.g. vegetable production, seedling production etc.), planting water tolerant tree species Early harvest with early planting or with short duration varieties, plantation of water and storm resistant tree like coconut, palmyra palm, date palm etc. Alternation in livelihood (i.e. from crop to fish or ducks), floating agriculture, encouraging existing water-logged tree species Coastal zoning e.g. rice and/or shrimp production zone, adjustment of crop rotation, cultivation of salinity tolerant crops (cowpea, mung bean, sunflower etc.) or varieties (e.g. BRRI-47 for rice) Cultivation of C4 crops with high water use-efficiency (hence little water user like maize), cultivation of wheat or pulses instead of Boro rice in dry season, introduction of drought/heat resistant or drought escaping (BRRI-33; short duration 118 days, hence drought escaper ) crops
G) Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh In all fairness we need a model/framework for
Adaptive Social Protection (ASP)
through better integration the SSN/SP, DRM & CCA domains. The model should coordinate multi-stakeholders from relevant ministries like MoFood, MoDMR, MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC. DRM ASP/Proper integration SSN CCA
What is that model?
Adaptive research on climate change agenda Climate sensitivity & exposure People vulnerability due to shocks/disasters Support to targeted groups by short term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA) DRM SSN CCA Immediate relief by short-term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Risks Cope/Adaptation/ Mitigation: Climate-resiliency/ ASP SSN DRM CCA Disruption of infrastructure & institutions SSN DRM Asset formation, income generation, insurance etc. by ex ante SSN (short- & long-term) (SSN-CCA) CCA Creation of protected infrastructure, river de-siltation, rain water harvest by long-term ex ante SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA) Rehabilitation of infrastructure by short term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Temporary structural supports e.g. cyclone or flood protection centre (DRM) Landless/micro holding ultra poor: food & basic needs + employment opportunity by SSN programmes: saving life Immediate recovery by short term ex post SSN (DRM-SSN) Small/marginal households: food & basic needs + cash: saving life and starting their own income generation activities Medium households: cash + input supports+ improved agricultural extension services: returning them into production Proposed conceptual model/ analytical framework for integrating CCA, SSN and DRM in Bangladesh
V. Key outputs & Policy recommendations
❶ More than 2.8 million rural poor where 1.7 million live in extreme poverty were exposed to some common weather events per year throughout the country in 2010. The figure should account as 3 to 5 times as many in any extreme year of climate shocks. The SSN programmes should cover these poor segments of the population.
❷ Households of Barisal division show higher climatic vulnerability followed by Rangpur and Khulna divisions whereas Rajshahi division shows minimum vulnerability followed by Sylhet division. The highly vulnerable Barisal, Khulna and Rangpur divisions housed about 67, 537 and 943 thousand poor people (of which 63, 52 and 63% are extreme poor), respectively who are currently affected by regular weather events like irregular rains, drought, flood, cyclone etc.
Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 2)
❸ The VGD, RE-RMP & FFW programmes have minimum scope in dealing with climate shocks, although the programmes are important especially for disadvantaged women in rural areas for creating employment opportunity as well as poverty reduction.
❹ ❺ The CLP is found as a good example for integrating DRM and CCA which can be more effective with developing proper marketing system of their products. The programme can be extended to the chars of other flood prone areas of Bangladesh. Based on the CLP-concept, some new types of safety net programme can be designed which integrate the DRM and CCA for fostering cyclone or water logging issue in Bangladesh with the aim of achieving a better coordination of the social protection interventions.
The aforesaid SSNs especially workfare programmes can be extended to cover more poor in the locality as these programmes addressed remarkably less number of households than others.
Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 3)
❻ The VGD beneficiaries can properly be engaged to sustainable income generation and microfinance activities for future saving to promote adaptive capacity which would enhance their resiliencies to cope with climate change.
❼ The RE-RMP beneficiaries can also be engaged to maintain embankments/polders and tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost preparation etc. The trees not only be appeared as a productive asset (facilitates CCA In various ways) for future but may also play an Important role for environmental protection.
Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 4)
❽ The dead or silted-up rivers, channels, canals or ponds can be excavated or re-excavated by operating the major workfare programme like FFW and the excavated soil can be utilized for creating, maintaining or elevating the rural roads, embankment and other infrastructures which are quite crucial for mitigating the flood, storm surge, water logging or salinity issues. The canals or ponds can additionally be utilised for enough harvesting of monsoon rain or flood water thus salinity and drought problems would be minimised for a better agricultural interventions in the affected regions.
❾ Dhaka and Khulna divisions have received the lion’s share of Agriculture Rehabilitation Programme (47 and 31%, respectively). The programme can be spread-up to other regions for promoting agricultural productivity in climate-disadvantaged areas like salinity, drought or water-logging.