Transcript Pengukuran GDP (domestic output)

Pengukuran Pendapatan
Nasional / output domestik
Pengertian /bagaimana GDP didefinisikan
Pengukuran /bagaimana GDP diukur
Pendekatan dalam pengukuran
Nominal vs Riil
Indeks Harga
Contoh PDB Indonesia
Kelemahan Konsep GDP
FE-UK PETRA
Pengukuran GDP (domestic output) dan
National Icome
• Pengertian :
• Total market value
• All final goods
• and services
• Produced
• In a given year
FE-UK PETRA
Pengukuran GDP (domestic output) dan
National Icome
• Pengertian :
• A Monetary Measure
• Avoiding Multiple Counting (Final
goods ; Value Added)
• Excludes Non Production Transactions
( Financial Transactions : Public
transfer Payments; Private transfer
Payments; Stock Market Transactions)
and ( Secondhand Sales)
FE-UK PETRA
Pengukuran GDP (domestic output) dan
National Icome
•Pendekatan/Approach :
•Spending/Expenditure Approach
– Personal Consumption Expenditures ( C )
– Gross Private Domestic Investment ( I )
– Government Purchases ( G )
– Net Exports ( Xn) ; ( X – M)
GDP = C + I + G + ( X – M )
FE-UK PETRA
Pengukuran GDP (domestic output) dan
National Icome
•Pendekatan/Approach :
•Income Approach
–
–
–
–
–
FE-UK PETRA
Compensation of Employees
Rents
Interest
Proprietor’s Income
Corporate Profits
Mengapa pendapatan total dari suatu perekonomian sama
dengan pengeluaran totalnya ?
• GDP dapat mengukur pendapatan total setiap orang dalam suatu
perekonomian serta pengeluaran total atas seluruh out put (barang dan
jasa) dari perekonomian yang bersangkutan. Karena pendapatan dan
pengeluaran merupakan dua sisi dari suatu mata uang yang sama.
Bagi sebuah perekonomian secara keseluruhan, pendapatan harus
sama dengan pengeluarannya.
• Dalam diagram aliran sirkuler nampak sebagai berikut : Rumah tangga
membeli berbagai barang dan jasa dari perusahaan, sedangkan
perusahaan menggunakan penerimaan atau hasil penjualannya
tersebut untuk membayar upah, pekerja, membayar sewa bangunan,
membayar deviden dan sebagainya. GDP sama dengan jumlah total
yang dibelanjakan oleh rumah tangga di pasar barang dan jasa. GDP
juga sama dengan total upah, sewa, dan laba yang dibayarkan
perusahaan di pasar factor produksi.
FE-UK PETRA
Diagram aliran sirkuler
Penerimaan
( = GDP)
Pengeluaran (= GDP)
PASAR BARANG DAN
JASA
Pembelian barang
dan jasa
Pengeluaran barang
dan jasa
PERUSAHAAN
RUMAH TANGGA
Input untuk
produksi
Tenaga kerja, tanah,
dan modal
PASAR FAKTOR
PRODUKSI
Upah, sewa dan
laba (= GDP)
FE-UK PETRA
Pendapatan (=
GDP)
The Circular Flow Revisited
Resource
Market
Expenditures
Resources
Goods &
Services
Businesses
Goods &
Services
Government
Net Taxes
Net Taxes
Expenditures
Goods &
Services
Product
Market
FE-UK PETRA
Households
Hubungan antara GDP, NNP, NI, PI dan DI
• Gross Domestic Product
12,487
– Consumption of fixed capital
• Net Domestic Product
- 1574
10,913
– Statistical discrepancy
+ Net foreign factor income
• National Income
+
10,904
– Taxes on productions and imports
– Social security contributions
– Corporate income taxes
– Undistributed corporate profits
+ Transfer payment
• Personal Income
– Personal Taxes
• Disposable Income
FE-UK PETRA
43
34
- 917
- 871
- 378
- 460
+ 1970
10,248
- 1210
9,038
Two Approaches to GDP
Expenditure
Approach
Income
Approach
Consumption by
Households
Wages
Investment by
Businesses
Rents
+
+
Government
Purchases
+
Expenditures
By Foreigners
FE-UK PETRA
G
= D=
P
+
+
+
+
Interest
Profits
Statistical
Adjustments
Expenditure Approach
• Personal Consumption Expenditures
C
– Durable Consumer Goods
– Nondurable Consumer Goods
– Consumer Expenditures for Services
• Gross Private Domestic Investment
–
–
–
–
FE-UK PETRA
Machinery, Equipment, and Tools
All Construction
Changes in Inventories
Noninvestment Transactions
Ig
Expenditure Approach
Gross Investment
Depreciation
= Net Investment
-
Gross
Investment
Net
Investment
Depreciation
Increased
FE-UK PETRA
Stock of
Capital
Consumption
& Government
Spending
Stock of
Capital
January 1
Year’s GDP
December 31
Expenditure Approach
• Government Purchases
G
– Expenditures for Goods and Services
– Expenditures for Social Capital
• Net Exports Xn
•
Xn = Exports (X) – Imports (M)
Putting It All Together:
• GDP = C + I + G + Xn
• GDP= $8,746 + 2,105 + 2,363 - 727 =
$12,487 in 2005
FE-UK PETRA
GDP Approaches Compared
Accounting Statement for the U.S. Economy, 2005
in Billions
Allocations
Income Approach
Receipts
Expenditures Approach
Personal Consumption (C)
$ 8746
Gross Private Domestic
Compensation
$ 7125
Rents
73
Investment (Ig)
2105
Interest
498
Government Purchases (G)
2363
Proprietor’s Income
939
Net Exports (Xn)
-727
Corporate Profits
Taxes on Production and
1352
917
Imports
National Income
Net Foreign Factor Income
Statistical Discrepancy
$10,904
-34
43
Consumption of Fixed
Capital
Gross Domestic Product
FE-UK PETRA
$ 12,487
1574
Gross Domestic Product $ 12,487
The Income Approach
•
•
•
•
•
Compensation of Employees
Rents
Interest
Proprietor’s Income
Corporate Profits
– Corporate Income Taxes
– Dividends
– Undistributed Corporate Profits
– Taxes on Production and Imports
FE-UK PETRA
The Income Approach
• From National Income to GDP
– Net Foreign Factor Income
– Statistical Discrepancy
– Consumption of Fixed Capital
• Other National Accounts
FE-UK PETRA
– Net Domestic Product (NDP)
– National Income (NI)
– Personal Income (PI)
– Disposable Income (DI)
DI = C + S
The Income Approach
Income Relationships – United States, 2005
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Consumption of Fixed Capital
Net Domestic Profit (NDP)
Statistical Discrepancy
Net Foreign Factor Income
National Income (NI)
Taxes on Production and Imports
Social Security Contributions
Corporate Income Taxes
Undistributed Corporate Profits
Transfer Payments
Personal Income (PI)
Personal Taxes
FE-UK PETRA
Disposable Income (DI)
$ 12,487
-1,574
$ 10,913
-43
34
$ 10,904
-917
-871
-378
-460
+1,970
$ 10,248
-1,210
$ 9,038
X-M
ALL OTHER
COUNTRIES
Compensation
of Employees
PI
Rents
DI
NI
Interest
Dividends
Proprietor’s Income
GDP
Corporate Income
taxes
Corporate Income
taxes
Undistributed
Corporate profit
Taxes on productions
and imports
Social Security Con
tributions
Undistributed
Corporate profit
Taxes on productions
and imports
Consumption
of fixed capital
Personal Taxes
Transfer payments
NNP
Consumption
of fixed capital
Business
I
FE-UK PETRA
Government
House hold
G
C
Penghitungan GDP riil dengan
tahun dasar, tahun 1
Year
Unit Of Output
Price of Pizza
per unit
Price Index
( year 1=100)
Nominal GDP
Real GDP
1
5
10
100
50
50
2
7
20
200
140
70
3
8
25
250
200
80
4
10
30
-
-
-
5
11
28
-
-
-
FE-UK PETRA
Penghitungan GDP
• HARGA DAN KUANTITAS
•
•
Tahun
• 2001
• 2002
• 2003
FE-UK PETRA
Harga Kuantitas
Hotdog Hotdog
Harga
Hamburger
$1
2
3
$2
3
4
100
150
200
Kuantitas
Hamburger
50
100
150
GDP Nominal, GDP Riil, dan GDP Deflator
•
•
•
•
•
PERHITUNGAN GDP NOMINAL
Tahun
2001
($1 per hotdog x 100 hotdog) + ($2 per hamburger x 50 hamburger) = $ 200
2002
($2 per hotdog x 150 hotdog) + ($3 per hamburger x 100 hamburger) = $ 600
2003
($3 per hotdog x 200 hotdog) + ($4 per hamburger x 150 hamburger) = $ 1,200
•
•
•
•
•
PERHITUNGAN GDP RIIL ( Tahun dasar 2001 )
Tahun
2001
($1 per hotdog x 100 hotdog) + ($2 per hamburger x 50 hamburger) = $ 200
2002
($1 per hotdog x 150 hotdog) + ($2 per hamburger x 100 hamburger) = $ 350
2003
($1 per hotdog x 200 hotdog) + ($2 per hamburger x 150 hamburger) = $ 500
•
•
•
•
•
PERHITUNGAN GDP DEFLATOR
Tahun
2001
$ 200 / $ 200
2002
$ 600 / $ 350
2003
$ 1, 2000 / $ 500
FE-UK PETRA
X 100
X 100
X 100
= 100
= 171
= 240
Nominal GDP, Real GDP and GDP Price Index,
Selected Years
Year
Nominal GDP,
Billion of $
Real GDP,
Billion of $
GDP Price
Index
(200 = 100
1980
2789.5
5161.7
-
1985
4220.3
6053.7
69.7
1990
5803.1
-
81.6
2000
9817.0
9817.0
100.0
2003
10,971.2
-
106.3
2005
12,487.1
11,134.8
112.1
FE-UK PETRA
Penghitungan GDP deflator
• GDP deflator
GDP Nominal
GDP
deflator
X 100
GDP riil
FE-UK PETRA
Contoh PDB Indonesia menurut lapangan usaha
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
STRUKTUR PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO INDONESIA MENURUT LAPANGAN
USAHA TAHUN 2002 DAN TAHUN 2003 (Persentase)
LAPANGAN USAHA
2002
2003
(1)
(2)
(3)
1. Pertanian, Peternakan, Kehutanan dan Perikanan
17,09
16,58
2. Pertambangan dan Penggalian
11,06
10,70
3. Industri Pengolahan
25,44
24,65
4. Listrik, Gas dan Air Bersih
1,89
2,22
5. Bangunan
5,83
6,00
6. Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran
16,49
16,32
7. Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
5,76
6,25
8. Keuangan, Persewaan dan Jasa Perusahaan,
6,84
6,88
9. Jasa-jasa
9,59
10,39
PDB
100,00
100,00
PDB TANPA MIGAS
89,03
89,27
FE-UK PETRA
PDB MENURUT PENGGUNAAN
• PDB MENURUT PENGGUNAAN ATAS DASAR
HARGA KONSTAN 1993 (Triliun Rupiah)
• Jenis Penggunaan
2002
2003
Pertumbuhan
(persen)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
(1)
1. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumahtangga
2. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah
3. Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto
4. Perubahan Stok
5. Ekspor Barang dan Jasa
6. Dikurangi Impor Barang dan Jasa
Produk Domestik Bruto
FE-UK PETRA
(2)
296,6
35,4
95,4
-17,7
101,7
118,9
426,9
(3)
308,5
38,8
96,7
-19,5
103,7
123,7
444,5
(4)
4,02
9,84
1,36
1,96
4,04
4,10
Shortcomings of GDP
•
•
•
•
•
•
Nonmarket Activities
Leisure
Improved Product Quality
The Underground Economy
GDP and the Environment
Composition and Distribution of
the Output
• Noneconomic Sources of WellBeing
FE-UK PETRA