Transcript APEC`s Natural Gas Production

APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase
Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Prepared for:
APEC Workshop on Unconventional Natural Gas
Prepared By:
Keith Moodhe, Sr. Consultant
Vello A. Kuuskraa, President
Scott Stevens, Sr. Vice President
ADVANCED RESOURCES INTERNATIONAL, INC.
Arlington, VA USA
Washington, DC
November 6, 2012
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Introduction - Unconventional Gas
• Unconventional gas has transformed North
America, from shortage to surplus and
(soon) export.
• UG production already significant in certain
APEC economies, others haven't started
yet.
Source:
USGS
• ARI identified large potential in certain
basins.
• Further work is still needed to build data
collection and geologic & technical
understanding in APEC economies to
foster investments in these emerging
resources. (APEC might consider
participating in this effort).
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
The APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Advanced Resources International is
completing a study for the APEC Secretariat
entitled, “APEC Unconventional Natural Gas*
Census: Evaluating the Potential for
Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase
Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced
CO2 Emissions”.
This APEC “Census” provides an in-depth
look at each APEC Economy’s: (1) current
unconventional gas production; (2)
government and industry assessments of the
size of its unconventional gas resource base;
and (3) estimate of potential future volumes of
unconventional gas production.
*Unconventional gas includes shale gas, coalbed methane and tight gas.
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Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
The APEC Economies
The 21 APEC Economies are major consumers as well as significant producers of
natural gas. We have placed these 21 APEC Economies into three groups:
Major Consumers
and Producers
Moderate Consumers
and Producers
Significant Consumers
and Importers
United States*
Thailand
Japan
Russia
Brunei
S. Korea
Canada
Vietnam
Taiwan
China*
Philippines
Singapore
Indonesia
PNG
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Chile
Mexico*
Peru
Australia
New Zealand
*In addition to being major natural gas producers, the U.S., China and Mexico are also natural gas importers.
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
APEC’s Natural Gas Consumption
Natural gas provides a significant portion of energy in the APEC
Economies. Last year, APEC consumed 1,767 Bcm (171 Bcfd), more than half
(55%) of the worldwide use of natural gas.
APEC’s Natural Gas Consumption
Bcm
2005
1,490
2010
1,692
2011
1,767
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Bcfd
144
164
171
U.S. and Russia account for twothirds (1,114 Bcm, 124 Bcfd) of APEC’s
natural gas consumption, with China,
Japan and Canada each using over 100
Bcm (10 Bcfd).
APEC’s consumption of natural gas
has grown steadily, up by 20% from 2005.
Significant future growth in gas
consumption is anticipated in China,
Japan, S. Korea and several of the other
APEC Economies.
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
APEC’s Natural Gas Production
The APEC Economies are also major producers of natural gas producing
1,831 Bcm (177 Bcfd) in 2011, up substantially from prior years.
APEC’s Natural Gas Production
Bcm
2005
1,600
155
2010
1,773
172
2011
1,831
177
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Bcfd
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APEC’s excess of natural gas
production of 64 Bcf (6 Bcfd) in
2011 was exported, primarily to
Europe.
In addition, an active market
for natural gas exports and
imports exist among the Asian
APEC economies.
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
APEC’s Unconventional Gas Production
The APEC “Census” finds that nearly a third (558 Bcm, 54 Bcfd) of APEC’s
annual natural gas production is already from unconventional gas.
APEC’s Natural Gas Production (2011)
Conventional
Unconventional
Bcm/Yr
Bcfd
1,273
123
558
54
▪ Tight Gas
275
27
▪ Shale Gas
217
21
66
6
▪ CBM
Total
1,831
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177
•
Tight gas, at 275 Bcm (27 Bcfd), is the leader with
239 Bcm (23 Bcfd) from North America and 36
Bcm (nearly 4 Bcfd) from China.
•
Shale gas at 217 Bcm (21 Bcfd in 2011 but
currently about 25 Bcfd) is the fastest growing,
essentially all from the U.S. and Canada. China
and Mexico may become major producers of
shale gas.
•
Coalbed methane, the previous “bright star” of
unconventional gas, provides 66 Bcm (6 Bcfd).
Significant CBM production increases are
expected from Australia, Indonesia and possibly
Russia.
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
APEC’s Unconventional Gas Resources
The APEC’s technically recoverable unconventional gas resource base is
large - - 114,700 Bcm (4,048 Tcf) - - equal to over 200 years of production, at
current rates.
APEC’s Technically Recoverable
Unconventional Gas Resource Base
•
Shale gas, with 65,840 Bcm (2,323 Tcf),
accounts for over half of this resource base.
Resource
•
Coalbed methane holds 28,700 Bcm (1,015
Tcf) of recoverable resources. Assessment
of the recoverable portion of Russia’s and
Indonesia’s large in-place CBM resources
would greatly increase this number.
•
Tight gas, with 20,160 Bcm (710 Tcf) of
recoverable resources, is the least
rigorously assessed, even in Australia,
Mexico and China where significant
volumes of tight gas are being produced.
Tcf
Shale Gas
65,840
2,323
Coalbed Methane
28,700
1,015
Tight Gas
20,160
710
114,700
4,048
Total
JAF2012_083.XLS
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
APEC’s Unconventional Gas Resources
China dominates the official tabulation of the unconventional gas resources
- - 36,000 Bcm (1,271 Tcf) including 25,100 Bcm (886 Tcf) of shale gas. The
U.S. is second, followed by Australia, Canada and Mexico. (Note there is large
uncertainty regarding shale resources in non-producing countries)
APEC’s Technically Recoverable Unconventional Gas Resource Base
Shale
Gas
(Bcm)
(Tcf)
Coalbed
Methane
(Bcm)
(Tcf)
Tight
Gas
(Bcm)
(Tcf)
Total
(Bcm)
(Tcf)
China
25,100
886
10,900
385
*
*
36,000
1,271
U.S.
16,410
579
3,960
140
14,730
520
35,100
1,239
Australia
11,300
398
12,400
439
600
20
24,300
857
Canada
2,550
90
1,270
45
4,830
170
8,650
305
Mexico
8,410
297
110
4
*
*
8,520
301
Others
2,070
73
60
2
-
-
2,130
75
65,840
2,323
28,700
1,015
20,160
710
114,700
4,048
TOTAL
JAF2012_083.XLS
*Significant tight gas production, estimated at 36 Bcm (3.5 Bcfd) is being produced in China (from the Ordos and
Sichuan basins) and about 2 Bcm (0.2 Bcfd) is being produced in Mexico (from the Burgos Basin). However, no official
estimates exist for tight gas sand resources in these two countries..
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
U.S. Unconventional Gas
The U.S. is the leader in unconventional gas production and technology.
Established U.S. Shale Gas Basins
•
Last year, the U.S. produced 441 Bcm (42.6
Bcfd) of unconventional gas, about 2/3 of
total gas production. Shale gas provided
half of the total.
•
With its large and high-quality resource base
of 35,100 Bcm (1,239 Tcf), unconventional
gas production is expected to grow - - reach
500 Bcm (48 Bcfd) in 2020 and 610 Bcm (59
Bcfd) by 2035.
U.S. Shale Gas Production Has Increased Dramatically in the Past Decade
Annual (Wet) Shale Gas Production (Bcfd)
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
Haynesville/Bossier
Marcellus
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Other
Sub-Total
2000
2011
(bcfd)
(Bcfd)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.9
1.1
6.6
3.4
1.4
2.5
5.6
2.1
21.6
The wet gas production value of 21.6 Bcfd becomes 20.5 Bcfd of dry gas, after extraction of NGLs.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Canada’s Unconventional Gas
Shale Gas Basins of Western Canada
Canada’s Western Sedimentary Basin holds bountiful
recoverable resources of unconventional gas:
•
Shale gas in Horn River Basin of 2,550 Bcm (90
Tcf) plus an unofficial 1,300 Bcm (46 Tcf) in the
Liard Basin.*
•
Tight gas in the Montney and other plays of 4,820
Bcm (170 Tcf).
•
Coalbed methane in southern Alberta Plains of
1,270 Bcm (45 Tcf).
Unconventional gas already provides about half of
Canada’s natural gas supply and is poised to grow from
70 Bcm (7 Bcfd) today:
•
90 Bcm (9 Bcfd) by 2020
•
130 Bcm (13 Bcfd) by 2035
*The U.S. EIA/ARI assessment of Canada’s recoverable shale gas resources is 355
Tcf (10 Tcm) in five major basins.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2011)
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Mexico’s Unconventional Gas
Onshore Shale Gas Basins of
Eastern Mexico
Mexico has a long history of oil and gas development.
With growing consumption (68 Bcm, 6.6 Bcfd) and
declining production (55 Bcm, 5.4 Bcfd) , Mexico is today
an importer of natural gas.
Mexico’s Gulf of Mexico basins hold promising unconventional
gas resources:
•
8,410 Bcm (297 Tcf) of recoverable shale gas estimated by Pemex,
ranging from 150 to 459 Tcf*.
•
110 Bcm (4 Tcf) of recoverable coalbed methane.
The Mexican Ministry of Energy looks for shale gas production to
reach 1.3 to 3.3 Bcfd by 2026, starting with the Eagle Ford Shale.
Outlook for Mexico’s Unconventional Gas Production
Source: Advanced Resources International (2011)
*The U.S. EIA/ARI assessment of Mexico’s recoverable shale gas resources is 19 Tcm (681 Tcf).
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
China’s Unconventional Gas
China, currently highly reliant on coal, is pursuing significant increases in natural gas use, to
10% of energy use by 2030 from 3% today. China is looking to LNG imports and domestic
unconventional gas production for new gas supplies.
Unconventional Gas Basins of China
With natural gas consumption of 131 Bcm
(12.8 Bcfd) and production of 103 Bcm (10.0
Bcfd), China’s natural gas imports have grown
steadily.
China has massive recoverable shale gas
(25,100 Bcm, 886 Tcf) and coalbed methane
resources, plus significant tight gas.*
China has ambitious year 2020 plans for
production of shale gas and coalbed methane,
but also recognizes many challenges:
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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•
Shale Gas: 60 to 100 Bcm/yr. (6 to 10 Bcf)
•
CBM: 30 Bcm/yr. (3 Bcfd)
*The U.S. EIA/ARI Assessment of China’s recoverable shale gas resource is 1,275 Tcf (36 Tcm);
ARI estimates China’s current tight gas production at 36 Bcm (3.5 Bcfd).
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Australia & New Zealand Unconventional Gas
Australia, poised to challenge Qatar as the world’s dominant LNG exporter, has
conventional gas resources on the Northwest Shelf, coalbed methane in Queensland
and New South Wales, and shale gas (and tight gas) resources in numerous basins.
Australia’s Assessed Prospective Shale Gas and Oil Basins
Australia’s assessment of its technically
recoverable unconventional gas resources:
•
CBM: 12,400 Bcm (439 Tcf)
•
Shale Gas: 11,300 Bcm (398 Tcf)*
•
Tight Gas: 600 Bcm (20 Tcf)
Last year, Australia produced 6 Bcm (0.6
Bcfd) of coalbed methane for the local
market.
In New Zealand, a coalbed methane
resource of 50 Bcm (2 Tcf) has been
estimated.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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Additionally, shale gas and oil exploration
is underway in several Australia and New
Zealand basins.
*Australia used U.S. EIA/ARI’s 2011 World Shale Gas Resource Assessment
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Russia’s Unconventional Gas
Russia is a giant in terms of conventional natural gas resources, exporting 182
Bcm (17.6 Bcfd) by pipeline to Europe (potentially in the future to China).
Unconventional Gas Basins of Russia
Russia is targeting its large coalbed
methane resource in-place of 83,700 Bcm
(2,950 Tcf). (No data on recoverable CBM):
•
Gazprom goal of 20 Bcm (2 Bcfd) of annual
CBM production from Kuzbass Coal Basin.
•
Russia has large un-assessed shale gas and
tight gas resources in Western Siberia.
Until recently the development of
unconventional gas has not been a priority for
Russia due to its large conventional gas
resources, although President Putin recently
directed Gazprom to increase its shale efforts.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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The IEA special study on recoverable
unconventional gas estimated that Russia has
8 Tcm (280 Tcf) of shale gas, 20 Tcm (700 Tcf)
of CBM and 7 Tcm (250 Tcf) of tight gas.
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Chile & Peru Unconventional Gas
While no official government estimates exist for unconventional gas reserves or
resources for Chile or Peru, coalbed methane and shale gas resources may show potential.
Unconventional Gas Basins of Chile
In June 2012, Chile’s ENAP reported plans to dill two
shale appraisal wells in the Magallanes Basin.
GeoPark is currently conducting fracture injection tests for
shale gas and oil while having previously evaluated coalbed
methane potential.
Unconventional Gas Basins of Peru
In Peru, smaller companies are
exploring Devonian-age shale gas
in the Ucayali Basin.
Drilling Info’s private 2010 study
estimates 2,070 Bcm (73 Tcf) of
shale gas in the Ucayali.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Indonesia’s Unconventional Gas
While still a major natural gas exporter (38 Bcm, 3.6 Bcfd), Indonesia’s growing
natural gas consumption (38 Bcm, 3.7 Bcfd) is placing challenges on meeting
existing LNG export commitments.
Indonesia’s Unconventional Gas Basins
•
Indonesia has 12,800 Bcm (453 Tcf)
of in-place coalbed methane, in five
coal basins. VICO (BP/ENI) is
producing and exporting CBM via
LNG with ExxonMobil, TOTAL,
Santos and others drilling exploration
wells.
•
Indonesia may also have 334 Tcf of
shale gas resource (Pertamina
estimate), plus tight gas prospects in
numerous structurally complex,
poorly characterized basins.
A rigorous evaluation of the
technical and economically
recoverable portion of these large
resources is a priority.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Asian Natural Gas Producing APEC Economies
Unconventional Gas
Additional Asian natural gas producing APEC economies fall into three distinct
groups:
Asian Natural Gas Producing APEC Economies
Natural Gas Exporters: Brunei, Malaysia.
Natural Gas Importers: Thailand
Natural Gas Balanced: PNG, Philippines,
Vietnam.
Much of current oil and gas production is
focused offshore, however these deposits
and their source rocks may hold onshore
unconventional potential.
Only a handful of resource assessments
have been conducted for in-place or
technically recoverable unconventional gas,
which includes a coalbed methane gas inplace of 197 Bcm (7 Tcf).
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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With growing consumption and LNG
demand, additional unconventional gas
assessments are needed.
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Asian Natural Gas Non-Producing APEC Economies
Unconventional Gas
The five Asian natural gas non-producing APEC economies include Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and China Hong Kong. These have limited geologic potential.
Asian Natural Gas Non-Producing APEC Economies
In 2011, these APEC economies consumed an
estimated 180 Bcm or 17.4 Bcfd of natural gas, a
significant increase from 164 Bcm (15.8 Bcfd) in
2010.
Japan and South Korea accounted for much of
the natural gas imports in 2011 (153 Bcm, 14.8
Bcfd), primarily via LNG from Malaysia, Australia,
Qatar, and Indonesia.
Consumption for the remaining APEC
economies was met through gas pipelines as well
as various LNG sources.
Source: Advanced Resources International (2012)
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Given the limited remaining conventional natural
gas resources in the region, the presence and
active pursuit of unconventional gas would ease
future demand concerns for these economies.
APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Outlook for Unconventional Gas Within APEC
What conclusions can we draw from the APEC Census:
“Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to
Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions?”
• First, the size of the official technically recoverable unconventional
gas resource base within APEC is large - - 114,700 Bcm (4,048 Tcf) - equal to 200 years of production at current rates.
Assessments of recoverable coalbed methane in Russia and
Indonesia, tight gas in Mexico and China, and shale gas in Russia
and several of the Asian countries would further increase the official
estimates.
• Second, unconventional gas already makes a major contribution, with
558 Bcm/yr (54 Bcfd), equal to nearly a third of APEC’s total natural
gas production of 1,831 Bcm (177 Bcfd).
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Actual and Projected APEC Unconventional Gas Production
We anticipate significant growth of unconventional gas production within the
APEC Economies, enabling natural gas to be a “bridge fuel” for lower CO2 emissions.
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
Outlook for Unconventional Gas Within APEC
• Third, the outlook for unconventional gas within APEC is highly promising:
− The U.S., Canada and Mexico expect an increase from 514 Bcm (50 Bcfd) last
year (2011), to 610 Bcm (59 Bcfd) by 2020, and to 780 Bcm (75 Bcfd) by 2035.
− Australia is expected to produce nearly 100 Bcm (10 Bcfd) of unconventional
gas (primarily coalbed methane) in 2035, up from 5 Bcm (0.5 Bcfd) today.
− China has ambitious goals for shale gas and coalbed methane production of
120 Bcm (12 Bcfd) by 2020, up from 10 Bcm (1 Bcfd) today. Tight gas
production would add 40 Bcm (4 Bcfd) to this total.
− Russia is targeting coalbed methane in the large Kuzbass Coal Basins, with
expectations of 4 Bcm (0.4 Bcfd) by 2020 and 20 Bcm (2 Bcfd) in the longerterm. We look for at least 20 Bcm (7 Bcfd) of unconventional gas from Russia
by 2035.
However, data reporting, resource appraisal, and fiscal regimes in the APEC
region need strengthening. This could be addressed by, for example, a future
APEC project engaging an Expert Consulting Team to work with APEC economies,
much as the 2003 ADB project fostered CBM development in Indonesia.
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APEC Unconventional Natural Gas Census
Evaluating the Potential for Unconventional Gas Resources to Increase Gas Production and Contribute to Reduced CO2 Emissions
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Resources
International
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