Transcript ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications
ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications
Abdul Basit Associate Research Fellow A(RF) International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 18 February 2015
: •
Overview
What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)?
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Background. .
Militant Islamist Groups Allied with ISIS.
Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks.
No. of Foreign Fighters.
Latest Updates of Foreign Fighters.
• ISIS Influence in South Asia: i.
Trends in South Asia ii. Why South Asia?
iii. Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups.
iv. ISIS Support Base in India.
v. ISIS Cell in Af-Pak.
vi. ISIS Four-pronged Strategy for South Asia.
vii. Terrorism Consortium in South Asia.
viii.3 Models of Jihad in South Asia.
ix. AQIS vs ISIS.
x. What does it all mean for South Asia?
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Major Questions
• Will ISIS pick a bone with Pakistan given the fact that Pakistan is not part of the US-led anti ISIS coalition?
• Is the group or its local affiliates capable of doing it?
• What is the magnitude of ISIS footprint in South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular?
• How the South Asian Islamist Militant Organizations have reacted to ISIS Growing Influence?
• What does it all mean for South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular?
What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (Dawlat al-ʿIrāq al-ʾIslāmiyyah, IS) ?
• The most powerful and wealthy Islamist Militant Group. • New-school of Jihadist setting new trends of the modern terrorist iconography. • Post 9/11, the only group to occupy a territory size of a of a state. • Financially self-sufficient • Possesses the largest number of foreign fighters in its rank, including females. • A contestant and claimant to leadership of Global Jihad. :
Background
: (1). Jamaat Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad (1999 2004) (2). Al-Qaeda in the Land of Two Rivers ( 2004-06) (3). Majlis Shura Al-Mujahideen (MSM, 2006) (4). Islamic State of Iraq (2006-13) (5). Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS, 2013 Present)
Groups Allied with ISIS
Indonesia
Abu Bakar Bashir • •
Libya
Ansar Al-Shariah Islamic Youth Shura Council
Afghanistan
Salafai Taliban Islamic State
Uzbekistan
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
Philippines
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)
Nigeria
Boko Haram
Pakistan
• Jandullah • Shahidulah Shahid Group • Tehrik-e-Khilafat • Jamia Hafsa Students
Egypt
• Gamah Islamiyah • Ansar Bait-ul-Maqdis
Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks
• Over 15,000 foreign fighters from 80 countries. • Second largest congregation of foreign fighters since the Afghan Jihad (1979-88). • Five largest contributors of foreign fighters are; Jordan (2,089), Saudi Arabia (1,016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon (890), and Libya (556).
• The number of fighters from Western Europe is around 1,937, 17 percent of foreign fighters population. • The most important regions for foreign fighter recruitment outside Western Europe and the Middle East are the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet Union.
Source: http://soufangroup.com/wp content/uploads/2014/10/Foreign-fighters-flow-to-Syria.jpg
No. of Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks
Latest Updates of ISIS Foreign Fighters
• The daily flow of foreign fighters has gone down from the peak 80-100 per day to a low of 10-15.
• On 1 December 2014, an Indian foreign fighter, Areeb Majeed, who returned to India revealed he cleaned toilets for ISIS.
• • “ On 18 December 2014, ISIS executed 150 female in Iraq’s Fallujah province for refusing to accept jihad marriage.” (Source: http://www.teaparty.org/isis-executes-150-women girls-pregnant-refusing-become-sex-slaves-marry-jihadists 73127/ ) “
I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.”
Source: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle east/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-ex fighter.html
• On 20 December 2014, ISIS executed 100 fighters for trying to flee Syria.
Trends in South Asia
• The national governments downplay the threat while certain pressure/ groups and vested interests over exaggerate the threat.
• The trend varies across South Asia countries.
• In Afghanistan and Pakistan it is confined to Salafist and Panjpiri pockets of militant groups.
• In India, it is lone-wolf behavior of self-radicalized individuals and group differential behavior.
• In Bangladesh most of the individuals from the Bangladeshi diaspora community have joined ISIS ranks.
Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan rules out the presence of the Islamic State (IS) in the country.
Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1143943 Source: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014 -10-14/news/55014486_1_jammu-and-kashmir isis-omar-abdullah
No. of Foreign Fighters who Joined ISIS from South Asia : Source: http://www.slideshare.net/RahulBhonsle/estimate-south-asian-fighters-in syria-and-iraq
Why South Asia?
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Ideological Factor
:
(Black Flags of Khurasan)
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Social Factor:
Conducive environment for incubation of Extremist Ideologies and Physical (ungoverned spaces) and Social Sanctuaries (youth vulnerable to extremist propaganda). •
Political Factor:
Al-Qaeda’s Power-base.
Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups
• Open Rejection: ( Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Kashmir Jihadi Groups and TTP Core) •
Jumping ISIS Bandwagon
: (Jandullah, Tehrik-e-Khilafat and Shahidullah Shahid Group) •
Fence-sitting Behaviour:
(Hizb-e-Islami Gulbadin and Jamat ul-Ahrar etc. )
ISIS Support Base in India
• • Lone Wolf and self-radicalized individuals: Mahdi Masroor (Social Media Operative) and Areeb Majeed who went to Iraq and later escaped No groups-level presence • Ansar al-Tawhid Fi-Bilad Al-Hind has pledged allegiance to ISIS • The activities are restricted to social media activism, flags and pro-ISIS banners
“I’m a soldier, I have no regrets”
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Im-a-soldier-I have-no-regrets-says-ISIS-Twitter-handler-Mehdi-Masroor Biswas/articleshow/45567376.cms
• • For the first time, Indian Muslims have responded to an extremist-terrorist organization in such a way The trends in South, Central and North India are uniform “
I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.”
Source: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle east/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-ex fighter.html
:
ISIS Cell in Af-Pak
SAEED KHAN (ORAKZAI) Khalid Mansour
(Hangu, KP)
Gul Zamam
(Khyber Agency)
Dawlat
( Kurram Agency)
Sa’ad al Emarati
( Sa’ad Abi Waqas – Logar province, Afghanistan)
Muhsin
(Kunar province, Afghanistan)
Omar Mansour
(Masjid Ahmar)
Jawad
( Abtalul Islam )
Talha
(Murat)
Saeed Khan
(Orakzai Agency)
Obeidaullah Peshawari
(Tawhid wal Jihad Peshawar)
Mufti Hassan
(Peshawar) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_showing_NWFP_and_FATA.
png
ISIS Four-pronged Strategy in South Asia
Terrorism Consortium in South Asia
3-Models of Jihadi in South Asia
Al Qaeda -Ghazwa-e-Hind Afghan Taliban Emirate
ISIS-Caliphate
• Consolidate existing network, then expand • Contain ISIS • Support Affiliates • Exploit Local Issues
AQIS
vs
ISIS
• Exploit Brand • Expand Network • Look for new recruits & affiliates • Indoctrinate through Propaganda
What does ISIS threat mean for South Asia? • Polarized and complicated militancy-landscape. • Ideological and operational transformations among the Jihadist groups. • New narratives and deeper penetration of the Salafi Jihadist Ideology.
• Cyber radicalization. • Difficulties in Lawn enforcement and security maintenance.