Transcript Arab Spring 10 December 2010 to ?

Shaimaa el Sabbagh
• What comes to
mind when you
think about the
Arab Spring?
• Why now?
• Why this region?
• Is it over and/or
was it
successful?
• What was/is the
significance?
• What Theory of
Revolution best
explains these
events
Questions?
Obama’s Cairo Speech
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_889oBKkNU
Geography of the Arab Spring
• Arab, not Sectarian (in
general)
• Lower classes,
Students, Laborers,
Military
• Populist
• Social Media
• Civil Resistance
(strikes, protests, and
demonstrations)
• U.S. supported
authoritarian regimes
• ‫الشعب يريد اسقاط‬
‫النظام‬
Characteristics
• Democratic deficit:
dictatorship &
authoritarian
regimes
• Human rights
violations
• Government
corruption
• Economic turmoil
• A young, educated,
and idol populace
Causes
Iran 2009
•
•
•
•
•
•
Protests about the 2009
Iranian Presidential Election
June 13, 2009
Re-election of President
President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad
Opposition candidates: MirHossein Mousav, Mehdi
Karroubi
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei:
“divine assessment”
Ahmadinejad: “completely
free” and “passions after a
soccer match”
Iran cont’d
• Police and Basiji use of force
and violence
• Iranian government response
• Foreign Intervention
• Green Revolution: protests in
Iran and around the world
• Iranian Green Movement:
group to protest the election
• “Twitter Revolution”
Jasmine Revolution
• President Zine al-Abidine Ben
Ali - Mukhabarat
• Mohamed Bouazizi 17 Dec
2010 in Sidi Bouzid
• Tunisian Economy
• Democratic Deficit
• Corruption
• The Army
• International Context
Timeline: December 2010
January 2011
Lebanon
12 January
Limited
2011
Jordan
14 January
Ongoing
2011
▪ A 40% increase in wages
▪ Called for political reforms of
confessionalism
▪ President Michel Suleiman’s
government suffered from multiple
resignations
▪ New government formed 13 June
2011
▪ King Abdullah II dismisses Prime Minister
Rifai and his cabinet
▪ Months later, Abdullah dismisses Prime
Minister Bakhit and his cabinet after
complaints of slow progress on
promised reforms
Protests and governmental changes
Protests and governmental changes
January cont’d
17
Maurit January
ania
2011
Subdued
since May
2011
17
Sudan January
2011
Subdued
since April
2011
17
Oman January
2011
Ended May
2011
• Hundreds of people took to the streets of
Nouakchott
• Followed January 2011 independence
referendum about South Sudan
• Protests in Khartoum and Al-Ubayyid
• Social media used to spread sites of
protests, especially student protests
• President Omar al-Bashir announces he will
not seek another term in 2015
• Protestors emphasize allegiance to the
Sultan
• Protest corrupt officials
• Economic concessions by Sultan Qaboos
• Increased government jobs and minimum
wage
• Dismissal of ministers
• Granting of lawmaking powers to Oman's
elected legislature
Minor protests
Minor protests
Protests and governmental changes
January cont’d
Saudi
Arabia
Egypt
Yemen
21 January
2011
Sustained small
protests in Eastern
Saudi Arabia
25 January
2011
• Government
overthrown on 11
February 2011
• Protests ongoing
27 January
2011
• President signs
transition deal on
23 November 2011
• Protests ongoing
▪ Economic concessions by King Abdullah
▪ Male-only municipal elections held 29
September 2011 after women tried to
register as electors
▪ June 2011: 70 cases of women driving
cars was recorded
▪ King Abdullah announces women's
approval to vote and be elected in
2015 municipal elections and to be
nominated to the Shura Council
Overthrow of Hosni Mubarak; Mubarak
charged for killing protesters
▪ Resignation of Prime Minister(s) Nazif and
Shafik
▪ Assumption of power by the Armed Forces
▪ Suspension of the Constitution, dissolution
of the Parliament
▪ Disbanding of State Security Investigations
Service
▪ Dissolution of the NDP, the former ruling
party of Egypt and transfer of its
assets to the state 16 April 2011
▪ Prosecution of Mubarak, his family and his
former ministers
Overthrow of Ali Abdullah Saleh; Saleh
flees to the United States
▪ Resignation of MPs from the ruling party
▪ On 4 June, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is
injured to Yemen
▪ On 22 January 2012, Saleh leaves power.
Minor protests
Government overthrown
Sustained civil disorder and governmental
changes
February 2011
Iraq
10 February Ended December
2011
2011
Bahrain
14 February
Ongoing
2011
Libya
• Government
overthrown on 23
15 February August 2011
2011
• War ended 23
October 2011
▪ Prime Minister Maliki announces that he
will not run for a 3rd term;
▪ Resignation of provincial governors and
local authorities
▪ Economic concessions by King Hamad bin
Isa al-Khalifa
▪ Release of political prisoners
▪ Negotiations with Shia representatives
▪ GCC intervention at the request of the
Government of Bahrain
▪ Head of the National Security Apparatus
removed from post
▪ “Black Thursday” night raid against
protestors at the Pearl Roundabout
▪ Formation of a committee to implement
BICI report recommendations
Overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi; Gaddafi
killed by NTC forces
▪ UN-mandated military intervention ended
with NATO withdrawal
▪ Opposition forces takes control of all
Libyan cities
▪ Assumption of interim control by National
Transitional Council
▪ International recognition of NTC as the
sole governing authority for Libya
▪ Beginning of sporadic low-level fighting
and clashes
Major protests
Sustained civil disorder and governmental
changes
Government overthrown
February cont’d
Kuwait
18 February
Ongoing
2011
Morocco
20 February
Ongoing
2011
Western
Sahara
26 February Subdued since May
2011
2011
▪ Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah,
the Emir of Kuwait, gave every Kuwaiti
citizen 1,000 dinars and a free food
grant for one year on 18 January 2011
(20th anniversary of liberation of Iraqi
occupation
▪ Gift not extended to stateless
Bedouins
nd
▪ 19 February Bedouins protest 2 class status in Kuwaiti City
▪ June 2011: 10-year old Egyptian boy
expelled for asking “why didn’t your
country have a revolution?”
▪ Protest break-out in response to
expulsion
▪ 28 November 2011: Prime Minister
Nasser Mohammed Al-Ahmed AlSabah resigns
▪ 6 December: Emir dissolved
Parliament
▪ Political concessions by King Muhammed
VI
▪ Referendum on constitutional reforms
▪ Respect to civil rights and an end to
corruption
Protests and governmental changes
Protests and governmental changes
Minor protests
March and May 2011
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Syria
15 March
2011
Ongoing
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Israeli border
areas
15 May
2011
Ended 5 June 2011
Demand dismissal of President Bashir
al-Assad
26 March 2011: Release of some
political prisoners
21 April: End of Emergency Law
Dismissal of Provincial Governors
Military action in Hama, Daraa, Homs
and other areas
5,000 protestors killed
Resignations from Parliament
Resignation of the Government
Large defections from the Syrian army
and clashes between soldiers and
defectors
July 2011: Formation of the Free
Syrian Army
Formation of the Syrian National
Council
Syria suspended from the Arab
League
Arab League sent an “observing
mission”
International support for a new Syrian
government in exile
Iran’s President Ahmadinejad called
the protests “plot” to overthrow Assad,
but later called for reforms
Sustained civil disorder and government
changes
Major protests
Social Media
• What is social
media?
• What role did
social media play?
• Could this have
happened without
social media?
– 1990s, 1980s,
1970s, etc.?
– 1919?
• Government control
• Iran and China’s
experience with control
Arab Spring - Syria
Arab Spring –
Syria
• The same or
unique?
• Sectarian:
Nasayris or
Alawites
• Are they
Muslim?
• The Prophet
Ali/Savior Ali
Arab Spring - Syria
• History with Israel
• Hassef al Assad, ruled 1970-2000
• Attempted assassination by the
Muslim Brotherhood 1980
• Palmyra prison
• “Hama Rules” Feb 1982
Arab Spring - Syria
• History with U.S.
• Bashir al Assad
• 2008 Hariri
assassination
• Petraeus, AQI and Syria
& Abu Ghadiya
• Abu Kamal Raid
• Blowback
Syria - WMD
Syria - WMD
Arab Spring - U.S. Responses
• Should the U.S. support
democratic elections in
historically autocratic
states?
• Should the U.S. support
autocratic leaders in order
to maintain stability?
• Should the U.S. support
the protestors by offering
moral support against the
use of violence by the
regimes?
• Should the U.S. arm the
opposition to autocratic
leaders?
• Encourage Arab leaders to
cancel emergency laws
• Encourage control of the
security forces to end
corruption w/little
violence Encourage the
development of civic
advocacy
• Economic aid
• Trade
U.S.
Responses
cont’d
• U.S. supported the Tunisian and Egyptian people Sec. of State
Hilary Clinton pledged $150 million in emergency aid to Egypt
• U.S. Export-Import Bank $80 billion in letters of credit to Egypt
• USAID $50,000 to Tunisia for disaster relief
• UN Security Council drafted a resolution calling on Assad to
step-down or face “harsher” measures in 15 days
• The US used military force in Libya, but has refused to so in
Syria
Impact of the Arab
Spring
• Do you recognize the
impact of these
events globally?
–
–
–
–
–
Europe
Central Asia
East Asia
Africa
America
• Roles of the Western
powers?
• Economic effects?
Questions?
•
•
•
•
•
Why now?
Why this region?
Is it over and/or was it successful?
How does this affect you?
What was/is the significance?