Transcript PPT

NOS Coastal and Surge Modeling
2011 NCEP Production Suite Review
Jesse C. Feyen
Coast Survey Development Laboratory
Office of Coast Survey
NOAA Surge Model Development
Efforts
• Moving toward total water level modeling
– NOS & NWS adding tides to SLOSH
– Implementing extratropical surge+tide system ESTOFS
– Coupling surge (ADCIRC) and wave (WAVEWATCH
III®) models in the Nearshore Wave Prediction System
• Accelerating transition of research to operations
– IOOS testbed for evaluating costs and benefits of
transitioning community models to operations
– Investigating ensemble approaches to use multiple
surge models
Office of Coast Survey
Atlantic Extratropical Surge and Tide
Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)
• Purpose
– Provide coastal water levels for coupling to WAVEWATCH
III® (WW3) to drive Nearshore Wave Prediction System
– Compute surge with tides, astronomical tides, and subtidal
water levels (surge only) for forecaster use
• Provides improvements in surge predictions
– Incorporates the astronomical tides, lacking in ETSS
• Enables future development
– River inflows
– Improved resolution of bays, inlets, and barrier islands
Office of Coast Survey
ESTOFS-Atlantic
• Applies ADCIRC model
• East Coast 2001 tidal
database grid (EC2001)
• 254,565 nodes
• Coastal resolution ≈ 3
km
• Tidal forcing at 60o W
– TPXO 6.2
Office of Coast Survey
Operational Set-up
• Mirrors WW3 set-up to support coupling
• Surface forcing from GFS
– 10 m winds and sea level pressure every 3 hours
• Run cycle: 4 times per day alongside GFS &
WW3
– 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z
– 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast
• Running experimentally in real-time now; fully
operational April 2012
Office of Coast Survey
ESTOFS Output
• Deliver three types of water level
– Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides
– Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides
– Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP
• Provide both field and point output
– 6 minute water level at points, hourly water level for fields
• Output native grid (NetCDF) & 2.5 km NDFD (GRIB2)
• http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid2/estofs/
2009 Veteran’s Day Nor’Ida
Office of Coast Survey
Water Level as Fields
EC2001 grid (NetCDF)
Office of Coast Survey
NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)
Water Level as Fields
EC2001 grid (NetCDF)
Office of Coast Survey
NDFD CONUS grid (GRIB2)
Hindcast Skill Assessment
Combined Water Level from 2009 Hindcast
Hindcast
Combined Water Level
0.4
RMS error (m) in water level
East Coast
Gulf of Mexico
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
8400000
8450000
8500000
8550000
8600000
Station ID
Office of Coast Survey
8650000
8700000
8750000
8800000
ESTOFS Performance in Hurricane
Irene
• August 20 – August
29, 2011
• Made landfall over
NC’s Outer Banks on
the morning of August
27
• Made second landfall
near Little Egg Inlet in
NJ the morning of
August 28
Office of Coast Survey
8/28/2011 5:00
8/27/2011 8:00
NHC Official Track
Hurricane Irene Storm Surge
• Storm Surge
– Along the North Carolina coast, surge values ranged from 0.3 m
at Wilmington to about 1.0 m above predicted tide levels at Duck
– Stations near the entrance to Chesapeake Bay recorded storm
surge values between 1.2 and 1.5 m above predicted tide levels
– Stations from New York City to Woods Hole, MA, had maximum
storm surge between 1 and 1.6 m above tide levels
• Hydrographs and average abs water level errors
– CO-OPS observation and ESTOFS Water Levels for the first
daily forecast cycle for 2011082500 through 2011082800
Office of Coast Survey
CO-OPS Gauge Locations
US Boundaries
ESTOFS Boundary
CO-OPS Gauges
Office of Coast Survey
GFS Forecast Track
Office of Coast Survey
Hydrograph
Duck, NC
Observation
20110825
20110826
20110827
20110828
2
1.5
Water Level (m, MSL)
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
236
237
238
239
240
241
Date (Gregorian Day)
Office of Coast Survey
242
243
244
245
246
Average abs WL Error
Duck, NC
20110825
20110826
20110827
20110828
1.2
Average abs_water level Error (m)
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
236
237
238
239
240
241
Date (Gregorian Day)
Office of Coast Survey
242
243
244
245
246
Hydrograph
Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
Observation
20110825
20110826
20110827
20110828
2
1.5
Water Level (m, MSL)
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
236
237
238
239
240
241
Date (Gregorian Day)
Office of Coast Survey
242
243
244
245
246
Average abs WL Error
Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
20110825
20110826
20110827
20110828
0.8
Average abs_water level Error (m)
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
236
237
238
239
240
241
Date (Gregorian Day)
Office of Coast Survey
242
243
244
245
246
Hydrograph
Kings Point, NY
Observation
20110825
20110826
20110827
20110828
3.0
Water Level (m, MSL)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
236
237
238
239
240
241
Date (Gregorian Day)
Office of Coast Survey
242
243
244
245
246
Average abs WL Error
Kings Point, NY
20110825
20110826
20110827
20110828
1.6
Average abs_water level Error (m)
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
236
237
238
239
240
241
Date (Gregorian Day)
Office of Coast Survey
242
243
244
245
246
U.S. IOOS Coastal Modeling Testbed
• $4M - IOOS Program FFO
(Programmatic Language)
• 5 teams, 64 scientists/analysts
• SURA is overall lead for execution
• One year project (May 2010-11) with
no-cost extension to Dec 2011
• Multi-sector engagement (federal
agency, academia, industry)
• Goals: o Less about models than process
Coastal Inundation
Gulf & Atlantic Coast
Rick Leuttich, UNC-CH
Shelf Hypoxia
Gulf of Mexico
John Harding, USM
Estuarine Hypoxia
Chesapeake Bay
Carl Friedrichs, VIMS
Cyber Infrastructure
o Focus is on stable infrastructure
(testing environment, tools, standard
obs) and transition to operations
Eoin Howlett, ASA
o Enable Modeling and Analysis subsystem
Rich Signell, USGS
Office of Coast Survey
Testbed Advisory
Evaluation Group
Original Testbed Goals
1. Develop skill metrics and assess models in three
different regions and dynamical regimes
2. Build a common infrastructure for access, analysis
and visualization of all ocean model data produced
by the National Backbone and the IOOS Regions.
3. Transition models, tools, toolkits and other
capabilities to federal operational facilities
4. Build stronger relationships between academia and
operational centers through collaboration
Office of Coast Survey
Surge, Waves and Inundation Team Results
• Development of
common
Testbed
infrastructure
• Data Archiving
• Model
development/
enhancement
• HPC Time
• Skill Analysis
Office of Coast Survey
Gulf of Maine /
Scituate Harbor Extratropical Domain
Shelf Hypoxia Team Results
• Improving
Collaboration
• Improving
Data
• Model
Development
• Supporting
Operations
NOAA CSDL planned coastal physical model implementations
(nGOM shelf domain above currently planned for 2nd Qtr FY 12
initial NGOFS coastal ocean forecast operational capability)
Office of Coast Survey
Estuarine Hypoxia Results
• Transitioning
information to
federal
agencies
• Model
Comparison
• Conducting
sensitivity
experiments
• New, single
term hypoxia
model
Five Hydrodynamic Models Configured
for the Chesapeake Bay
CH3D
Cerco & Wang
USACE
EFDC
Shen
VIMS
UMCES-ROMS
Li & Li
UMCES
ChesROMS
Long & Hood
UMCES
Office of Coast Survey
CBOFS (ROMS)
Lanerolle & Xu
NOAA
Cyber Infrastructure Team Results
• Interactive Web Site: browse model results, view model
grid data, side by side comparisons, and MUCH MORE
• Unstructured Grid Support: Time series extraction
completed for FVCOM, SELFE, ELCIRC, ADCIRC.
• Matlab Toolbox: standardized data transformations, new
methods for comparing data (including unit conversion).
Coordination with OOI-CI
• Matlab as a Web Service: Matlab processes - no desktop
license required.
• Skill Assessment Tools: Measure the degree of correlation
between model prediction and observations
• Collaborative Web Site: public/private access to portal,
content organization with internal/external tools.
Office of Coast Survey
Looking Ahead
• Teams are finalizing products for consideration
or transferring models, tools and toolkits to
federal operational centers
• Cyber infrastructure team will continue
developing tools to advance data repository and
search features as well as comparison tools for
data and models
• Management team is building framework for
sustainability to include:
– Defining and gathering broad agreement for structure
and CONOPS of long term Testbed
– Ensuring funding support for future Testbed study
Office of Coast Survey
NOS Operational Forecast System locations – April 2011
Office of Coast Survey
Office of Coast Survey
Office of Coast Survey