Transcript Mr. Baldeh(AFC) Presentation at the ALP Seminar on Power

Transforming the Nigerian Power Sector: Challenges and Solutions
The Financiers’ Perspective on Power
By:
Dr. Adesegun Akin-Olugbade, OON
Executive Director and General Counsel
AFRICA FINANCE CORPORATION
28 February 2013
© Africa Finance Corporation, 2012
Confidential. Not for further reproduction or distribution
1
Outline
 Nigeria Power Sector Overview
 Lending Opportunities
 Key Considerations
 Overview of Key Risk Issues
 Conclusion
2
Nigeria Power Sector Overview – Generation
 Mainly gas-fired and hydro
 Less than 5,000MW total capacity currently;
and projected at 11.5GW over next 5 years
Genco Assets by Size (in MW)
 About 30 grid-based plants in total:
840
- 20 under development or near
completion, including about 11 NIPP
plants and 9 State and private
1,320
- About 10 currently operational, mostly
FGN owned, with 3 private
 7 FGN plants now being sold; NIPP plants to
be sold later
1,020
600
 FGN will be the leading offtaker (PPA issuer)
 Several private IPPs currently focused on
captive operations, due to better economics
 The power sector reforms will create new
infrastructure asset classes
760
Ughelli
Sapele
Geregu
414
Kainji
Shiroro
Egbin
3
Nigeria Power Sector Overview – Distribution
 Discos are natural monopolies
 Primary cash source in the sector
Disco Assets by Size (in MW)
 Currently 11 across the country, and all are
currently being sold (60.0% stake):
- Most traverse several States; only Ikeja/Eko
are single State assets
- Ikeja is the largest – 2,077GWh
- Jos is the smallest – 714GWh
 Discos require significant rehabilitation,
maintenance & technology investments
1,855
1,989
788
265
2,077
1,164
1,440
1,802
714
 A few IEDNs/captive Discos may emerge
1,920
 Ultimate structure will be private sector led
 NERC will play a major role as regulator
Ibadan
Enugu
Port Harcourt
Benin
Ikeja
Jos
Yola
Abuja
Eko
Kano
4
Nigeria Power Market: Key Financing Statistics


Generating companies will require about
US$12bn …
 US$1.7bn to acquire the approx. 5,000MW
being privatized by 2013
 About US$2.5bn in capex to rehabilitate and
expand these assets
 Another US$4.2bn to acquire the NIPP assets
when they are sold later on
 Approximately US$4.0bn over 5 years to fund
working capital needs – mainly fuel, and
operations and maintenance (O&M) costs
Distribution companies will require about
US$3bn …
 US$1.3bn to acquire the 10 assets being
privatized by 2013
 About US$1.5bn in capex to rehabilitate and
expand these assets
 Approximately US$600m over 5 years to fund
working capital needs – mainly power
purchase, staff costs, and O&M
Genco Estimated Financing Needs by Type (US$MM)
2,193
Acquisition Cost
Capex
2,477
7,270
Annual Opex
Disco Estimated Financing Needs by Type (US$MM)
605
1,256
Acquisition Cost
Capex
Annual Opex
1,443
Sources: AFC, based on primary data from BPE and projections from various bidders; Annual Opex refers to estimates over first five years of operating the assets
Overall market of US$15bn over the next five years …. US$10.5bn in debt
funding based on 70:30 D:E ratio
5
Lending Opportunities in the Nigeria Power Sector
A variety of lending opportunities are emerging across the sector,
with different risk profiles …
 Generating companies are typically easier to finance with debt, assuming:
 Long-term PPAs (20 years minimum) with a credible buyer, e.g FGN
 Similar term GSAs and GTAs in place with credible sellers
 Appropriate risk enhancements in place, such as World Bank PRGs
 Shareholders are able to contribute at least 30% equity, to provide a capital
buffer and cover development costs
… however, limited opportunities for ancillary business, e.g cash collection
 Distribution companies are relatively higher risk, but can also carry debt, if:
 Credible owner and operator are in place to manage the asset well
 Strong government commitment to ensure cost-reflective tariffs
 Owners are able to navigate the BPE-NERC-FGN-State Government terrain:
Politics and governments likely to have a high impact on lending outcomes
… there are additional opportunities for cash collection/management and
working capital funding at the Disco level
6
Related Opportunities ... More potential financing targets
Infrastructure/Power
Developers
 Green-field or brown-field project development across the value chain
 Acquisition of Gencos & Discos; and new IPPs
 Development cost and risk sharing
Consultants and
Specialist Service
Providers
 Feasibility Studies, Engineering Designs, Works Supervision, Project
Management, Pre-investment due diligence
 Specialist surveys, audits and related services
 Research, benchmarking and advocacy
Original Equipment
Manufacturers (OEMs)
 Supply & installation of equipment
 Term Operations & Maintenance Contracts
 Own Government/Export Credit Agency Support
Contractors
 Engineering, Procurement Construction Contracts
 Term Operations & Maintenance Contracts
 Local firms: Sub-Contracting/Joint Ventures
Fuel Suppliers (Gas,
LPFO, Coal)
 Development of fuel supply infrastructure – pipelines, tank farms, etc
 Bankable long term fuel supply contracts
 New market creation/exports
7
Key Considerations for Quality Lending
The standard framework of credit risk management will still be useful in the
emerging power sector …
Important to support
borrowers with strong
management and
technical capacity
Share acquisition vs. capex?
Working capital vs. trade finance?
Genco vs.
Disco?
Wholesale contracts vs. retail sales
Impact of
FGN, NERC,
BPE, States,
politics,
elections?
Largely non-existent, so
creativity required to
establish benchmarks
Specialised Risk
Analysts required
Project
finance vs.
corporate
lending?
8
Overview of Key Risk Issues
1. Bankability of industry and transaction documents (PPA, GSA, Vesting
Contract, Connection Agreements, NELMCO Agreements etc.)
2. Creditworthiness of the NBET and TCN (FGN Support)
3. Availability of adequate gas and generation capacity; and transparent
allocation of available power to the DISCOs
4. Exclusive DISCO service territory and rights (e.g. Embedded Generation
and IEDN possibilities)
5. Performance Agreement obligations (ATCC, Rehab and Expansion)
6. Regulatory certainty (e.g. Tariff Setting, Subsidies and Dispute Resolution)
7. Timely availability of FGN Guarantees and /or WB PRG
8. Timely implementation of agreements reached with the Labor Unions
9. Evolution of market structure (e.g. declaration of Eligible Customers and
Wholesale/Retail competition)
9
Overall – New market, Same credit rules
1. Traditional credit risk management frameworks will still prove useful but:
 In-house analytical, technical and legal resources will be required
 Longer tenor funding may be necessary to be competitive
 Important to support high quality sponsors with good technical partners
2. Different skill sets required for different loan and asset types, for example:
 Investment banking skills for acquisition financing
 Classic corporate banking tools for lending to Discos
 Project finance capabilities for financing Gencos
3. As with all lending, strong sector knowledge is the ultimate requirement
 Encompasses technical, engineering, legal, economic and financial
 Strong relationships key at Senior levels of government, asset owners,
technical firms, consultants, lawyers, banks
IN SUMMARY... There are opportunities for financing and capacity
development across the value chain in the Nigerian power sector; but, hard
work would be required to create quality loan portfolios
10
Comments?
THANK YOU!
11
Contact Information
Africa Finance Corporation
A: 3A Osborne Road, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria
T: +234 279 9600
E: [email protected]
Dr. Adesegun Akin- Olugbade, OON
Executive Director and General Counsel
T: +234 279 9621
E: [email protected]
12