Transcript ch07-2e

Scheduling Projects
Chapter 7
Contemporary Project Management
Kloppenborg
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter
Vignette
Challenges to creating and
managing implementation schedules
• Gaps in communicating project objectives,
timelines, and measures of success
• Populating the central repository with adequate
quality content
1. Harvest, prepare, and load whatever
content is readily available for quick deployment
and usage.
2. Define complete content requirements
prior to initial launch.
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter
Vignette
Challenges to creating and
managing implementation schedules
• Establish a scope that can be completed in four
to eight weeks
• Delivering real business benefits in the shortest
possible timeframe continues to drive our
scheduling approach.
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Introduction to Project Time
Management
• Planning for time is iterative
• The building blocks of a project schedule are
activities
Activity – “a component of work performed during the
course of a project.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
At the end of this chapter…
• Describe project schedule limitations and how to
deal with them
• Describe potential problems in estimating time
accurately and how to overcome them
• Use the activity on node (AON) method to
develop a project schedule.
• Identify the critical path using prescribed
methods
• Depict a project schedule
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Characteristics of Activities
•
•
•
•
Clear starting and ending points
Tangible output that can be verified
Scope small enough to understand and control
Labor, other costs, and schedule can be
estimated and controlled
• Single person accountability
Prepare
budget
Build
frame
Format
VERB
NOUN
Test
code
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Project time management
processes*
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Define activities
Sequence activities
Estimate activity resources
Estimate activity durations
Develop schedule
Control schedule
* Adapted from PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Purposes of a Project Schedule
When will the project be complete?
What is the earliest a particular activity can
start, and when will it end?
What activity must begin before which other
activities can take place?
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Purposes of a Project Schedule
What would happen if a delivery of
material was one week late?
Can a key worker take a week vacation the
first week of March?
If one worker is assigned to do two
activities, which one must go first?
How many hours do we need from
each worker next week or month?
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Purposes of a Project Schedule
Which worker or other resource is a
bottleneck, limiting the speed of our project?
What will the impact be if the client
wants to add another module?
If I am willing to spend an extra $10,000, how
much faster can the project be completed?
Are all of the activities completed that should be by now?
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Historical Development of Project
Schedules
• Scheduling as a result of competition
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) – 1950s
– Identify activities
– Determine their logical order
– Estimate the duration of each activity
Critical Path Method (CPM) – “a schedule network
analysis technique… and to determine the minimum total
project duration.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
PERT
• Developed in the Navy’s Special Program Office
• Used in developing the Polaris Weapons System
• Estimate most likely time needed to complete a
project
• Estimate level of confidence in completing a
project in a particular time
• Useful in research and development (R&D)
projects
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CPM
• Developed in Engineering Services Division of
the Du Pont Company
• Used to plan very large projects
• Used single time estimates for each activity
• Focus on longest sequence of activities
• Used to determine how to complete a project
early
• Useful in the construction industry
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Activity on Node (AON) or
Precedence Diagramming Method
(PDM)
• Work activities are represented by a node and
arrows connect activities representing the work
of the event
• Most widely used
Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) – “a schedule
network diagramming technique in which the scheduled
activities
are
represented
by May
boxes
or nodes...”
PMBOK®
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Learning.
All Rights Reserved.
not be scanned,
copied or duplicated,
or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Guide
Modern Development of Project
Schedules
• Computers have
enhanced scheduling
capability
• Resource limitations
are a major
determinant of project
schedules
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
5 Factors Limit Project Completion
• Logical order in which activities need to be
completed
• How long each activity will take
• How many key resources are available at
specific points in the project
• Imposed dates
• Cash flow
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Creation of Project Schedules
•
•
•
•
•
Identify all activities
Determine logical order in a network diagram
Assign resources to each activity
Estimate time required for that activity
Compare emerging schedule with imposed
dates
• Consider project budget and cash flow, quality
demands, and risk factors
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The Project Manager’s
Responsibility
• Resist pressure to dictate a schedule
• Determine a schedule that is possible
• Persuade stakeholders that the schedule makes
sense
• Deliver the project according to the agreed-upon
schedule
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Define Activities
• WBS with deliverables
only
“What work
activities must be
completed to
create each of the
project
deliverables?”
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Define Activities
• Do not omit any activities
• Activity sequencing may uncover missing
activities
• The schedule will not be approved until all
related planning is in place
• Adding activities after the final schedule is
approved add time and money to the project
• Use previous projects, templates, or checklists
as a starting point
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
List Project Milestones
•
•
•
•
Completion of a major deliverable
Completion of a critical activity
Prior to a large financial commitment
Merging point in the project schedule
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WBS with
Milestone
List
Milestone
•
Sequence Activities
What activity or activities
can be started right away
and do not depend on
any others?
What activity or
activities can we start
now?
Predecessor activity – “the scheduled activity that
determines when the logical successor activity can begin or
end.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Sequence Activities
• The following activity is called a successor
activity
• Place a successor activity after its predecessor
• Draw an arrow to show the relationship
• Continue until all activities have been placed on
the work surface
• Dependencies can be mandatory or
discretionary
Successor activity – “the schedule activity that follows a
predecessor activity, as determined by their logical
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to arelationship.”
publicly accessible website,
in whole or in
part.
PMBOK®
Guide
Activity List for Product Upgrade Project
Determine product features
Acquire prototype materials
Produce prototype
Design marketing
campaign
Design graphics
Conduct marketing
Perform sales calls
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Network for Product Upgrade Project
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Leads and Lags
• The most common type of logical dependency is
finish-to-start (FS)
• Leads are helpful if a project needs to be
completed quickly
Finish-to-start – “the logical relationship where initiation of
work of the successor activity depends on completion of work
of the predecessor activity.” PMBOK® Guide
Lead – “a modification of a logical relationship that allows
an acceleration of the successor activity.” PMBOK® Guide
Lag – “a modification of a logical relationship that directs a
delay
the successor
activity.”
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Cengagein
Learning.
All Rights Reserved.
May not be PMBOK®
scanned, copied orGuide
duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Finish-to-Finish Relationships
• The graphics could be designed while the
marketing campaign is being designed, but not
completed until the marketing campaign is
completed.
Finish-to-finish – “the logical relationship where
completion of work of the successor activity
cannot finish until the completion of work of the
predecessor activity.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Start-to-start Relationships
• The graphics design could not start until the
design marketing campaign started
Start-to-start – “the logical relationship where initiation of
the successor schedule activity depends on the initiation of
the predecessor schedule activity.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Start-to-finish Relationships
• The least used relationship
• Example – a project to replace an old system
where the new capability must be started before
the old one is completely discontinued
Start-to-finish – “the logical relationship where completion
of the successor schedule activity is dependent on the
initiation of the predecessor schedule activity.” PMBOK®
Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Estimate Activity Duration
• Evaluate each activity independently
• Document all assumptions and constraints
• Changing assumptions and constraints could
change estimates
Duration – “the total number of work periods (not including
holidays or other non-work time) required to complete a
schedule activity.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Estimate Activity Duration
• Identify the output that will be created
• Identify the skill level required to perform the
work
• Disregard predetermined completion points
• When using a past project as a guide, use actual
time not initial estimates for activities
• Keep time estimates in the same unit of
measure
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Activity Duration Estimate Example
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Suggestions for Creating Realistic
Time Estimates
1. Verify all time estimations with the people doing
the work
2. Estimate times of completion of work without
initial reference to a calendar
3. Make sure all time units are identical: working
days, work week, months (consider time off for
company holidays)
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Suggestions for Creating Realistic
Time Estimates
4. Consider time constraints
Unexpected
meetings
Learning
curves
Inaccuracy
in work
instructions
Vacation
Interruptions
Emergencies
/illness
Rework
Resources or
information not
available on
time
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Suggestions for Creating Realistic
Time Estimates
5. Acknowledge tendency toward optimistic or
pessimistic estimations
6. First establish a realistic estimate
7. Adjust estimates based on size, familiarity, and
complexity differences
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Activity Duration
Estimating
Problems and
Remedies
Learning Curves
• The more times a person performs an activity,
the better and faster he or she becomes
• Rate of improvement can be studied and
predicted
• The rate of improvement varies depending on:
how much the culture
of the organization
stresses continual
improvement
how complex that
activity is
how much of the
activity is dependent
on the worker versus
how much skill is
dictated by the pace of
involved in the activity
a machine
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Learning Curves
• Time necessary to perform an activity is
calculated based upon a rate of improvement
• Time estimates are found in learning curve
tables
• Rapid learning leads to faster performance times
• PMs should plan for the amount of learning that
takes place
• PMs should create and sustain an environment
that encourages and expects rapid learning
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Learning Curve Table
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Develop Project Schedules
• Identify the critical path
– Determines the earliest possible end date of the
project
– Most critical in terms of time
– Methods for determining the critical path
Two-pass
method
Enumeration
method
Critical path – “…the sequence of activities that determines
the duration of the project…the longest path through the
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PMBOK®
Guide
toproject.”
a publicly accessible
website, in whole
or in part.
Two-Pass Method
• Used to determine the amount of slack each
activity has
• Make two logical passes through the constructed
network
– The forward pass
– The backward pass
Forward pass – “the calculation of the early start and early
finish dates for the uncompleted portions of all network
activities.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Pass Example Schedule
Set Up
Start at the beginning of the
project and ask how soon each
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activity
can begin and end
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Times Important to Each Activity
• Displayed in the four corners of each block
Early start date (EF) – “the earliest possible point in time
on which uncompleted portions of a schedule activity can
start…” PMBOK® Guide
Early finish date (ES) – “the earliest possible point in time on
which uncompleted portions of a schedule activity can finish…”
PMBOK® Guide
Late start date (EF) – “the latest possible point in time that
a schedule activity may begin…” PMBOK® Guide
Late finish date (ES) – “the latest possible point in time that a
schedule activity may be completed…” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Schedule Example First Pass Complete
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Second or Backward Pass
• How late can each activity be finished and
started?
Backward pass – “the calculation of late finish dates and
late start dates for the uncompleted portions of all schedule
activities.” PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Schedule Example Second Pass Complete
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Float and the Critical Path
• Compute the critical path based on float (slack)
• Activities with no float or very little float need to
be scheduled very carefully
• Float = Late Start – Early Start (Float = LS – ES)
• Critical path is the sequence of activities that
have no float
Total float – “the total amount of time a schedule activity
may be delayed from its early start date without delaying the
project finish date.” PMBOK® Guide
Free float – “the amount of time a schedule activity can be
delayed without delaying the early start of any immediately
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schedule
activities”
to a following
publicly accessible
website, in whole
or in part. PMBOK® Guide
Two-Pass Complete Schedule Example
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Enumeration Method
• List (enumerate) all paths through the network
• All paths are identified and timed if the team
needs to compress the schedule
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Enumeration Method
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Uncertainty in Project Schedules
• Construct the best possible schedule
• Manage the project very closely
OR
• Estimate a range of possible times each
individual activity may take
• Examine the impact of each activity on the entire
schedule
• Use PERT and Monte Carlo for this approach
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT)
• Aid to understanding how variability in the
duration of individual activities impacts the entire
project schedule
• Sequence activities into a network
• Create 3 estimates of time to complete each
activity
Estimated time =
– Optimistic
– Most likely
– Pessimistic
Optimistic + 4(Most likely) + Pessimistic
6
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
PERT Time Estimate Example
PERT Considerations
• Advantages
– Reinforces the degree of uncertainty that exists in
project schedules
– Calculations indicate that expected time is actually
longer than most likely time
• Difficulties
– Takes more effort to create 3 estimates
– No guarantee how good the estimates are
– May underestimate the risk of a schedule running
long
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Project Managers and PERT
• Infrequently used by project managers
• PMs may informally use 3 time estimates for key
activities
• PMs may use Monte Carlo simulation instead
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Monte Carlo Simulation
• An entire range of possible time estimates can
be used for any activity
• Project schedule is calculated many times
• Estimate for a particular activity is based on the
likelihood of that time as determined by the
project manager
Monte Carlo Analysis – “a technique that computes, or iterates,
the project cost or project schedule many times… to calculate a
distribution of possible total projects cost or completion dates.”
PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Computer output includes a distribution of how
often the project would be expected to take each
possible length of time
• Advantages
– Flexibility allows more realistic estimates
– Extent of information provided
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Disadvantages
– Time necessary to estimate activity duration and
range of outcomes
– Special software and skill required for effective use
• PMs decide when this specialized technique is
worth the extra effort to the project
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Initiatives to Improve On-Time
Schedule Delivery
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Show the Project Schedule on a
Gantt Chart
• An easier to understand tool for communicating
a project schedule
• A horizontal bar chart showing each activities
early start and finish
• Show a bar for each activity stretched over a
time line
• Units of time are the units used to create the
schedule
Gantt chart – “a graphic display of schedule related information.”
PMBOK® Guide
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Show the Project Schedule on a
Gantt Chart
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Show the Project Schedule on a
Gantt Chart
• Basic Gantt chart does not show critical path,
predecessor-successor relationship, or late start
and finish dates
• Use scheduling software, like MS Project, to
display additional features on a Gantt chart
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Using MS Project for Critical Path
Schedules
•
•
•
•
Set up the project schedule
Build the Logical Network Diagram
Understand the Critical Path
Display and print schedules
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Using MS Project for Critical Path
Schedules
• Limitations to how fast a project can be
completed
–
–
–
–
–
Logical order of the activities
Duration of each activity
Number of key resources available when needed
Imposed dates
Cash flow
• Consider each limitation in order when using MS
Project
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Set Up the Project Schedule
• Define your organization’s holidays
• Turn off change highlighting
• Understanding types of project data
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Calendar with Two Holidays (1/3 and
1/17) Plus a Half Day (1/26) and a Working
Saturday (1/22)
On the Project tab, click Change Working Time.
In the For Calendar: box, enter Standard
(Project Calendar) if not displayed.
Move to the month and year using the scroll bar
to the right of the calendar display.
Click on the day to change.
Click the Exceptions tab, then click an empty
row.
Enter a description in the Name column.
Click another cell in the same row to review the
results.
Repeat these steps until the organizational
holidays are defined.
Deleting a row restores the previous definition.
Click OK.
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Details Dialog for Half Working Day
Select the day, enter a description, and then
click Details …
Click Working Time and modify the From:
and To: values.
Click OK twice.
Select the day and click Details…
Click Nonworking and click OK twice.
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Turn Off Change Highlighting
Click the Task tab.
On the Format tab, Text Styles, Item to
Change, enter Changed Cells.
In Background Color, enter White.
Click OK.
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Understanding Types of Project Data
• Task Data – WBS data and task data
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Understanding Types of Project Data
• Resource Data
– Describe each resource with information required for
control
– Used to determine assignment load, work, and cost
– Use the resource name field to identify the resource
wherever assignment information is displayed
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Understanding Types of Project Data
• Assignment Data
– Task duration, work values, cost values are
calculated at the time of assignment
– Calculated when a resource’s work, units, or duration
values are changed
– View in Task Usage or Resource Usage view
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Build the Logical Network Diagram
1. Enter tasks and milestones
2. Understand task dependencies
3. Define dependencies using a task table and
mouse
4. Define or delete a dependency series
5. Understand network diagram presentation
6. Verify the accuracy of the network logic
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
1. Enter tasks and milestones
1. Click on the Id field to select the row(s) below
where the new row(s) will be.
2. On the Task tab, Insert group, click Insert Task.
3. In the Task Name field, enter the desired name
of the added task.
4. Inserted rows assume the summary level of the
row above the insert location.
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2. Understand Task Dependencies
• A task dependency definition includes a logical
link type and any associated lead/lag value.
• Defaults:
– Finish-to-start link type
– Lead/lag value of zero days
• View/create task dependencies graphically in
the Network Diagram view and Gantt views
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
3. Define Dependencies using a
Task Table and Mouse
1. Click on the Id (task name) field to select the
predecessor task row.
2. Press and hold Ctrl while selecting the
successor task.
3. On the Task tab, Schedule group, click on Link
Tasks.
4. To delete a dependency definition:
Task tab-Schedule group-Unlink Tasks
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
4. Define or Delete a Dependence
Series
1. Select (by dragging) all of the tasks to be linked
in a series.
2. Click – Task tab – Schedule group – Link
Tasks
3. To delete links:
Click – Task tab – Schedule group – Unlink
Tasks
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
5. Understand Network Diagram
Presentation
• Task tab – View group – click arrow – Network
Diagram
• File – Print – appropriate settings - Print
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to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
6. Verify the Accuracy of the Network
Diagram
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Print the Network diagram.
Find tasks with no predecessor - Justify
Find tasks with no successor - Justify
Verify the logic (work flow).
Find opportunities parallel or overlap activities
Justify/repair gaps in the Critical Path.
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Understand the Critical Path
1. Assign duration estimates
2. Identify the critical path
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
1. Assign Duration Estimates
• Use the same unit of time for each task
• Assign duration estimates to tasks and
milestones only
• MS Project calculates the duration for WBS
summaries based on durations for tasks within
each summary
• To assign the duration to a task:
– Click Duration cell – Enter duration value
– Assign zero duration to create a milestone
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
2. Identify the Critical Path
•
•
Project marks Critical Path task Gantt bars and
Network Diagram task nodes in red
Add Critical Path marking to Gantt Chart
graphical view
–
•
Click Task – Format – Bar Styles – Critical Tasks –
OK
Monitor “near” Critical Paths:
– Tools – Options – Calculation tab
– Adjust the value of the “Tasks are critical if slack is
less than or equal to” setting
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Display and Print Schedules with
MS Project
• Project scheduling software may not be
available to all members of the project team
• Create an output that can be printed and easily
read (.pdf file format)
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Summary
• Project schedules are created by listing all
activities that will need to be performed (activity
definition)
• Detail activities to include how the activity will be
accomplished, by whom, how long it will take,
how much it will cost, and accountability
• Determine predecessors and successors to
sequence activities (activity sequencing)
• Estimate how long each activity will take
(activity duration)
• Schedule development is an iterative process
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Project Schedule Emphasizing
Critical Path Activities
PM in Action Example
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Project Schedule Emphasizing
Critical Path Activities
• Top row shows the summary for the entire Project
• Intermediate summaries could be collapsed to
show more of the project at a glance.
• Critical activities are shown in color.
• Activities are all connected with arrows showing
their predecessor relationships.
• Project managers can show or hide as much
• detail as their sponsors and other stakeholders
wish.
PM in Action Example
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted
to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.