Risk and Return

download report

Transcript Risk and Return

Risk and Return Intro

Returns  HPR  CAGR   YTM, RCYTM APR and APY   DY NPV, IRR   Average Annual Return Geometric Return 1

Holding Period Return (HPR)

 Holding Period Return  The total return earned from holding an investment for a specified holding period (usually 1 year or less) Holding period return  Current income during period  Capital gain (or loss) during period Beginning investment value Capital gain (or loss) during period  Ending investment value  Beginning investment value 2

Using HPR

  Advantages of Holding Period Return  Easy to calculate   Easy to understand Considers current income and growth Disadvantages of Holding Period Return  Does not consider time value of money  Inaccurate and irrelevant if time period if longer than one year 3

Using IRR

  Advantages of Internal Rate of Return  Uses the time value of money  Allows investments of different investment periods to be compared with each other  If the yield is equal to or greater than the required return, the investment is acceptable Disadvantages of Internal Rate of Return  Calculation is complex  Results may not be unique 4

Interest on Interest

 Using YTM and IRR assumes: that all income earned over the investment horizon is

reinvested

at the same rate as the original investment.

Reinvestment Rate

is the rate of return earned on interest or other income received from an investment over its investment horizon.

Fully compounded rate of return

is the rate of return that includes interest earned on interest.

5

Risk

Risk-Return Tradeoff

return, in which investments with more risk should provide higher returns, and vice versa 

Return

, for purposes of planning, is the expected return.

 

r

Risk

is the chance that the actual return from an investment may differ from what is expected. Measured as the standard deviation of the expected return.

6

E(r)

Risk 

r

7

Sources of Risk

  

Business Risk

uncertainty associated with an investment’s earnings and ability to pay returns owed investors.

Affects  Common stocks  Preferred stocks Examples  Decline in company profits or market share  Bad management decisions 8

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

  Affects  International stocks, ADRs  International bonds 

Currency Exchange Risk

variation in exchange rates.

Examples  U.S. dollar appreciates against foreign currency, reducing value of foreign investment 9

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

  

Financial Risk

uncertainty attributable to the mix of debt and equity used to finance a business; more debt, greater this risk.

Affects  Common stocks  Corporate bonds Examples  Company unable to obtain credit to fund operations  Company defaults on bonds 10

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

Purchasing Power Risk

changing price levels (inflation or deflation) that adversely affect investment returns.

 Affects  Bonds (fixed income)  Certificates of deposit  Examples  Barrel of oil $66.00 last year is $89.00 this year 11

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

Interest Rate Risk

  changes in interest rates that adversely affect a security’s value.

Affects  Bonds (fixed income)  Preferred stocks Examples  Market values of existing bonds decrease as market interest rates increase  Income from an investment is reinvested at a lower interest rate than the original rate 12

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

Liquidity Risk

not being able to liquidate an investment conveniently and at a reasonable price.

 Affects  Some small company stocks  Real estate  Examples  Selling a low volume stock reduces the price of the stock, consider

blockage discounts

13

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

  

Tax Risk

Congress may introduce unfavorable tax laws, driving down the after-tax returns and market values of certain investments.

Affects  Municipal bonds  Real estate Examples  Lower tax rates reduce the tax benefit of municipal bond  interest Limits on deductions from real estate losses 14

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

  Affects  All types of investments 

Market Risk

decline in investment returns because of market factors independent of the given investment.

Examples    Stock market decline on bad news Political upheaval Changes in economic conditions 15

Sources of Risk (cont’d)

  

Event Risk

unexpected events that have significant and immediate effect on the underlying value of an investment.

Affects  All types of investments Examples  Decrease in value of insurance company stock after a major hurricane  Decrease in value of real estate after a major earthquake  The BP oil spill 16

Measures of Risk: Single Asset

 Standard deviation is a statistic used to measure the   dispersion (variation) of returns around an asset’s average or expected return.

 Coefficient of variation is a statistic used to measure the relative dispersion of an asset’s returns; it is useful in comparing the risk of assets with differing average or expected returns.

CV

    Higher values for both indicate higher risk 17

Historical Returns and Risk

18

Risk-Return Tradeoffs

19

The Decision Process: Combining Return and Risk

 Estimate the expected return using present value methods and historical/projected return rates.  Assess the risk of the investment by looking at historical/projected returns using standard deviation or coefficient of variation of returns.  Evaluate the risk-return of each investment alternative to make sure the return is reasonable given the level of risk.

 Select the investment vehicles that offer the highest expected returns associated with the level of risk you are willing to accept.

20