Transcript phil-reeves-econolyst

The development & application of
Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing
-looking to the past to inform the futureStockholm, Sweden – 19th September 2013
Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst
Contents (50-minutes)
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A personal introduction
Agreeing terms (AM or 3DP)
The principles of layer manufacturing explained
Technology applications and trends
The business drivers to technology adoption (users)
Looking at the consumer 3D Printing Eco-system
(suppliers)
• Projecting out the future
About Econolyst
• Econolyst is a UK based consultancy & research firm
dedicated to the 3DP & Additive Manufacturing
• Established 2003
• Team of Engineers, designers, economists,
mathematician, software developers, retail & HR
people
• Partnership with Nottingham University for
technology development & materials
characterisation
• Work across the Western Europe, Scandinavia, USA,
the Middle East & Far East
• Fortune 500 client base
What do we do
• Help companies ideate &
embed AM/3DP products into
their brands, value chains &
supply chains
• Help AM software, technology
& materials vendors with their
technology & market strategy
• Advise public & private sector
investors on the dynamics of
the AM/3DP market place
Point Lobos Capital
Current stuff that keep us busy!
• Modelling the 10-year convergence of 3D Printing,
open source electronics & robotics on the consumer
electronics industry
• Investigating the long terms innovation benefits for
the wide scale adoption of consumer 3D printing in a
professional automotive design environment
• Modelling the current and future economics for the
use of 3D Printing to support volume manufacturing
• Technology mapping for the re-shoring of ‘digital
footwear’ – technology & data pathways
The development & application of
Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing
-looking to the past to inform the future-
Q) Is 3D Printing the same as
Additive Manufacturing?
Q) Is 3D Printing the same as
Additive Manufacturing?
•YES, but:
A)3DP is typically associated with people
printing at home or in the community
B)AM is typically associated with production
technologies & supply chains
C)BUT they both produce parts by the
addition of layers
What is Additive Layer Manufacturing
3DP processes are automated systems that
take 2-dimensional layers of computer data
and rebuild them into 3D solid objects
Why is this layer thing so different
• Subtractive
– Material is successively removed from a solid block until
the desired shape is reached (2.5M BC – Hominids)
• Fabricative
– Elements or physical material are combined and joined
(6,000 BC – Western Asia)
• Formative
– Mechanical forces and, or heat are applied to material to
form it into the desired shape such as bending, casting
and molding (3,000 BC – Egyptians)
• Additive
– Material is manipulated so that successive pieces of it
combine to make the desired object (1984 – Californians)
This is not a new concept
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1902 - Peacock patent for laminated horse shoes
1952 - Kojima demonstrated layer manufacturing benefits
1967 - Swainson files US patent for dual light-source resin system
1981 - Kodama publishes 3 solid holography methods
1982 - Chuck Hull experiments with SLA
1984 - Chuck files US patent 4,575,330
1986 - 3D Systems formed, others follow
1987 - Rapid Prototyping became a commercial reality
1990 - Layer manufactured parts used as casting patterns
1995 - Layer manufactured parts used as tools
2000 - Layer manufactured parts used as production parts
2011 – 45,000 ALM machines globally (in total since 1984)
2012 – 45,000 new machines sold in 1-year
How do ALM process build layers
Infrared
Wire feed
E-Beam
Powder bed
Thermally
How to
make a
layer
Laser
Extruded
Cut from
stock
Chemically
Powder feed
Jetting
Solvent jetting
Jet & Flash
Photocurable
Laser spot
Binder jetting
DMD/DLP
Commercial ALM systems in 2013
•Sintermask
• High Speed sintering
•Arcam EBM
• Sciaky EBM3
• Stratasys – FDM
• MakerBot clones
• Solidscape
• 3D Invision DP
• 3D Systems - SLS
• EOS - LS & DMLS
• Phenix, Concept Laser, Realizer,
Renishaw, SLM Solutions - SLM
•Optomec – LENS
• Accufusion - LC
•Voxel Jet – PM
•Solidica – Ultrasonic compaction
•Mcor Matrix
• CAM-LEM CM100
• Z-Corp – 3DP
• ProMetal
• F-Cubic
• Objet – Polyjet
• 3D Invision HR/XT
• 3D Systems – SLA
•Nextfactory – Digiwax
•DMEC - SLA
• EnvisionTEC – Perfactory
• EnvisionTEC – Vanquish
• 3D systems – Vflash
• DWS – Micro SLA
• Asiga - Pica
So what can we print after 29-years?
Waxes
Cerami
c
materia
ls
Alumina
Polymer
ic
material
s
ABS
Aluminium
Tissue / cells
Mullite
Polyamide (nylon)
Tool Steel
Zirconia
Filled PA
Titanium
Silicon Carbide
PEEK
Inconel
Thermosetting epoxies
Cobalt Chrome
Organic
material
s
Beta-Tri calcium Phosphate
Ceramic (nano) loaded epoxies
Metallic
materia
ls
Copper
Silica (sand)
PMMA
Stainless steel
Plaster
Polycarbonate
Gold / platinum
Graphite
Polyphenylsulfone
Hastelloy
ULTEM
Aluminium loaded polyamide
3DP is just an enabler – many applications
Prototypes (Rapid Prototyping)
Casting Patterns (Rapid Casting)
Tool cavities (Rapid Tooling)
Direct Parts (Additive Manufacturing)
But what about the value
Rapid Prototyping $$
Rapid Casting $
Rapid Tooling $
Additive Manufacturing $$$$$$
Why is AM becoming
so important to
manufacturers
(I want to be a user!)
The core business drivers to AM adoption
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6.
Economic low volume production
Increased geometric freedom
Product personalisation
Improvised environmental sustainability
New supply chains and retail models
Increased part functionality
1. Enabling low volume production
• Enabled the economic manufacture
of low volume complex geometries
and assemblies
– Reduces the need for tooling (moulds /
cutters)
– Reduced capital investment & inventory
– Simplifies supply chains & reduced lead
times
Example – unit volumes of 1
• Bentley is a subsidiary of Volkswagen
• Vehicles from $250K - $1M
• In-house polymeric and metallic AM capacity
Example – Low volume production
• Problem – customer with limited mobility
needed a reversed dashboard
• Production substrate produced by RIM
• Manual modification time consuming
• Solution – Laser Sintered AM part with
leathers and veneers veneers
Images courtesy of Bentley
Example – Low volume production
Images courtesy of Bentley
2. Maximising design complexity
• AM enables the production of highly
complex geometries with little if no
cost penalty
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Re-entrant features
Variable wall thicknesses
Complex honey combs
Non-linear holes
Filigree structures
Organic / genetic structures
Example – Delphi Diesel Pump
• Conventional product manufactured by
cross drilling an aluminium die casting
• Multiple machining operations
• Multiple post processing ops (chemical
deburring, hole blanking, pressure testing)
• Final product prone to leakage
Design the product around the holes
Example – conceptual Diesel Pump
• Produce the part as one piece using
Selective Laser melting on Aluminium
3. Increasing part functionality
• AM enabled multiple functionality to be
manufactured using a single process
– Replacing surface coatings & textures
– Modifying physical behaviour by designing
‘mechanical properties’
– Embedding secondary materials (optical /
electrical)
– Grading multiple materials in a single part
surface design for bone ingress
Material:
Ti6Al4V
Build time:
cups in
hours
16
Implants (production)
• Accetabular cups
18
Images Courtesy of ARCAM – www.arcam.com
Example – Heat dissipation surfaces
Example – Energy absorption
Multifunctional technology platforms
4. Product Personalisation
• Individual consumer centric products,
with customer input
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Medical devices
Consumer goods
Cultural & emotional artefacts
Online design tools
Co-creation
www.makielab.com
• Children engage with technology
There are many new interfaces
5. Life cycle sustainability
• Product lifecycle improvements in
economic and environmental
sustainability
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Reduced raw material consumption
Efficient supply chains
Optimised product efficiency
Lighter weights components
Reduced lifecycle burden
Case study – aerospace cabin component
Design optimisation for AM
Topologically
optimised
Machine from
solid billet
Complex
lattice
Images courtesy of
Loughborough University
How does the weight compare
Scenario 1 – Machined
from solid (0.8Kg)
Scenario 2 – Selective
Laser melted lattice
(0.31 kg)
Scenario 3 – Selective
Laser melted optimised
design (0.37 Kg)
Lifecycle environmental benefit
Process
Raw
Materials
CO2
Manufacture
CO2
Distribution
CO2
Usage
CO2
Life cycle
Kg CO2
Machining
100Kg
2 Kg
5 Kg
43,779 Kg
43,886
SLM lattice
16 Kg
5 Kg
1 Kg
16,238 Kg
16,260
SLM optimal
18 Kg
7 kg
2 Kg
20,339 Kg
20,366
• Example based on 90M km (Long haul) application
Sunday Times 13th Feb 2011
Example – life cycle economic benefits
• 0.49Kg saving per monitor arm
• $1,500 per annum in fuel savings (today's
prices)
• $45,000 over 30-year aircraft life
• Product life span 5-7 years (estimate)
• Life-cycle economic saving $6.5K - $9K
• Machined part - $500
• SLM Part - $2,500
• Capital investment repaid in 2-years…. 
This is a step change in design
BUT - We can go much further
6. Supply chain realignment
• New lean yet agile business models
and supply chain
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Distributed manufacture
Manufacture and the point of consumption
Demand pull business models
Stockless supply chains
Chainless supply chains (home
manufacture)
Rapid retailing linking the internet to 3DP
$50.00 each
60,000 month
$36M P/A
Figure Prints – 4,000 per month
$6.2-million (6-machines)
“But what about consumer 3D
Printing?”
(I want to be a supplier BUT - It’s
all just Hype!)
There is certainly a lot of hype 
The hype debunked
“Bigger than the
internet”
“A new world
order”
“you can print
anything”
Bigger than the internet……………..
“Bigger than the
internet”
How big is 3DP compared to www?
THIS BIG
0.0002% 3DP users to web users
2,405,518,376 internet users
THIS BIG
60,000 home
30,000 commercial
Lots of opportunity !!!!
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/
Will 3DP ever be bigger than www?
2012/13 figures
90,000 machines globally (max) in 2012
288% annual growth (max)
2,405,518,376 internet users in 2012
46% annual growth
Global population 7,017,846,922 in 2012
1.2% annual growth
2025 convergence!!!! 
You can print anything…………………….
“you can print
anything”
BUT - you can’t print everything..
Dumb systems with dumb software
Geometric limitations
Thermal management issues
Consumer 3DP is getting bigger
• www.compete.com
So where are the
opportunities to get involved
in the consumer 3D printing
space?
The 3DP Ecosystem
Materials
Design
solutions
Data
management
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
Front end software
Materials
Design
solutions
Back-end
software
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
TINKERCAD – front end design tools
Digital Forming – web constraint modelling
This is a pall point pen
This is a bedside light
This is a lemon squeezer
Back end software
Materials
Front-end
software
Data
management
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
Aggregation sites
• Website that broker the flow of digital 3D
Printable date
• Sometimes free, some pay-per-download
• Some integrated with professional back-end 3D
Print fulfilment businesses
• Emerging platforms focused on consumer
machines (3DHUBS)
Machines
Materials
Front-end
software
Back-end
software
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
A lot of simple FDM systems have been successful
Formlabs
Concept
Seed
investment
R&D
Kick starter
$2M
working
capital
Product
Materials
Materials
Front-end
software
Back-end
software
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
People are sourcing and slicing materials
Plastic isn't the only material
www.chocedge.com
Filabot – machines to process waste
Products
Materials
Front-end
software
Back-end
software
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
Using on-line print fulfilment then sell products
Integrated solutions
Materials
Front-end
software
Back-end
software
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
www.makie.me (action dolls made in London)
Figure Prints – big ticket integration
A $100B industry !!!!!!
Materials
Front-end
software
Back-end
software
Integrated
solutions
Machines
Products
All the drivers are pushing the right way
Technological
changes
32% of the
world online
Social
networking
The $20
computer
Socioeconomic
changes
Environmental
concerns
Increasing old
age
Increasing
population
4G and
wireless
Cloud based
storage
100Mb
broadband
Cloud based
computing
Political
instability
Shifting
wealth
Reducing
birth rate
Power & water
consumption
Also……
Our world of 3DP/AM is changing!
“The only constant I am sure of is this ever increasing pace
of change – Peter Gabriel 2000”
The world is changing
Removal of barriers
Access to finance
Access to innovations & skill
Routes to market
Machine prices are tumbling
SLA Viper Si2 - $250K
Formlabs Form 1 - $3.2K
Fortus MC400 - $150K
GigaBot- $4K
EnvisionTec
perfactory - $79K
B9 Creator - $3.5K
Exponential growth (288% PA)
Material prices are tumbling
Stratasys ABS - $297 Kg
Makerbot ABS $48 Kg
Injection moulding
ABS - $2.5 Kg
Conversion
$0.02 Kg
Capabilities are increasing / accelerating
Replicator 2X
Replicator 2
capability
Replicator
Jan 2013
Thing-o-matic
Sept 2012
Jan 2012
Cupcake
Sept 2010
RepRap
March 2009
18-months
14-months
10-months
4-months
Technology convergence
CAPABILITY
Not good enough
High
Low
Barriers to
technology adoption
Too expensive
High
COST
Low
Forecasting the future
IP protection
Material Cost
Hardware
cost
Laser power /
scan speed
Print heads /
capacity
Productivity
(Kg/h)
2003
2008
2013
T0
2018
T1
2023
T2
Econolyst – IBM consumer electronics study
You have to love what you do..
The 3DP candidates
Reverse engineer the parts
Identify most appropriate solution
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Size, volume, surface area
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Metallic
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Loading
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Selective Laser Melting
Direct Metal Laser Sintering
Electron Beam Melting
Direct Metal Deposition
Digital Metal Printing
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Polymeric
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Selective Laser Sintering
Stereolithography
Polyjet
Projet
Voxeljet
FDM
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Structural
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cyclic
Environmental conditions
– Water
– Detergent
– Humidity
– Thermal loading & cycling
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Functionality
– Water tight
– Shock proof
– Aesthetic
AM viability & economic modelling
Environmental lifecycle modelling
Understanding the current BOM
Product / technology roadmaps
Realities…….
Bosch Washing machine
T0 –
2013
Current BOM
$310
Value of non 3DP Parts
$235
Value of 3DP displacement $75
Just not meant to be
parts
3DP technology innovation
T0 3DP cost
of
$11,56
Cost parity 4
manufacture
3DP augmented product
$11,79
9
T1 –
2018
T2 2023
$235
$75
$235
$75
$337
$83
$572
$318
Realities…….
IPhone 5
T0 –
2013
Current BOM
$202
Value of non 3DP Parts
$195
Value of 3DP displacement $7.00
parts Expensive personalised luxury
price delta
T0 3DP cost Acceptable
of
$123
No great improvement (don’t wait)
manufacture
3DP augmented product
$318
T1 –
2018
T2 2023
$195
$7.00
$195
$7.00
$12.39 $5.66
$207.3 $200.6
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6
The next 10-years
Bosch Washing machine
T0 –
2013
Current BOM
$310
Value of non 3DP Parts
$235
Value of 3DP displacement $75
Just not meant to be
parts
3DP technology innovation
T0 3DP cost
of
$11,56
Cost parity 4
manufacture
3DP augmented product
$11,79
9
T1 –
2018
T2 2023
$235
$75
$235
$75
$337
$83
$572
$318
Realities…….
In-the-ear hearing aid
T0 –
2013
Current BOM
$313
Value of non 3DP Parts
$310
Value of 3DP displacement $0
parts Currently 3D Printed on mass
3D Printed & assembled on the high street
T0 3DP cost of
$3
3D Printed digital assemblies
manufacture
3DP augmented product
$313
T1 –
2018
T2 2023
$310
$3
$100
$200.6
2
$12.38
$0.38
$310.3 $112.3
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Summary
• Don’t promise your mum a 3D printed washing machine
unless you know she is going to live until 2023
• Start worrying (a lot) if you are machining metal cases
for IPhones
• Take AM seriously if you are engaged in activities
involving the manufacture of high value, low volume
parts today, and high volume tomorrow
• Start developing a consumer 3DP strategy & an
industrial AM strategy – they WILL converge
• Look to the blue water – the red water is already getting
very bloody ………..
Questions
Econolyst Ltd
The Silversmiths
Crown Yard
Wirksworth
Derbyshire, UK
DE4 4ET
+44 (0) 1629 824447
Skype: econolyst
[email protected]